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1、郑新立在博鳌亚洲论坛年会上的发言郑新立在博鳌亚洲论坛年会上的发言( (中英对照中英对照) )扩大亚洲经济合作 引领全球走出危机在博鳌亚洲论坛上的发言中国国际经济交流中心常务副理事长 郑新立EXPANDING ECONOMIC COOPERATION IN ASIA, HELPING THE GLOBE GET RID OF CRISESSPEECH AT BOAO FORUM BY ZHENG XINLIEXECUTIVE VICE CHAIRMANCHINA CENTER FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC EXCHANGES2009-4-18席卷全球的金融经济危机，正在对
2、世界经济带来沉重打击，预计今年全球贸易额将下降 9%左右，工业生产将下降 15%，经济总量将缩减 1%-2%，出现 60 年来最严峻的局面。经济危机考验着各国政府的经济管理能力，考验着人类的智慧。The financial and economic crisis sweeping the globe is dealing a heavy blow to the world economy. It is forecast that the global trade volume will drop by about 9 percent, industrial output by 15 perce
3、nt and economic aggregate by 1 to 2 percent, indicating the most severe situation for 60 years. The economic crisis is testing the economic management capabilities of governments as well as the wisdom of mankind.亚洲作为这次危机被波及的地区正深受其害，面临着出口下降、就业减少、外汇储备风险加大等威胁。但亚洲也是这次危机中比较幸运的地区，受危机的直接冲击比美、欧要小，内需潜力巨大，资金和
4、外汇储备比较充裕，除少数发达国家和地区外，多数国家和地区处于工业化、城市化快速推进的过程中。扩大亚洲的经济合作，把亚洲各国工业化、城市化进程与发达国家的技术和区域内外的资金结合起来，可以形成巨大的需求。这种需求一旦变成现实购买力和进口能力，对拉动全球经济走出危机影响，将会起到举足轻重的作用。Asia is being impacted profoundly as the region is affected by the sprawling crisis, challenged by decrease of export, decline in employment, and rising r
5、isks in forex reserves. However, Asia is comparatively a fortunate region in the crisis in that its direct impact is less serious than the U.S. and Europe, its potential domestic demand is enormous, and its capital and forex reserves are abundant. With the exception of a few developed economies, mos
6、t of the countries and regions are in the process of accelerated industrialization and urbanization. By expanding economic cooperation in Asia, combining industrialization, urbanization of Asia with the technologies of developed countries as well as capitals from within and outside the region, treme
7、ndous demands will take shape. Once the demands are translated into real purchase power and import power, they can play a vital role in driving the global economy out of the shadow of crisis.在亚洲各国精英聚首博鳌这个难得的历史时刻，我想就扩大亚洲经济合作，引领全球走出危机的影响，提以下三点建议，以抛砖引玉。At the rare historical moment of Boao Forum where
8、elites from Asian countries are gathering here, Id like to propose three recommendations on the topic of expanding economic cooperation in Asia and helping the globe get rid of crisis.第一，为了保护各国持有的美元储备的安全，亚洲国家应联合起来要求美国做出美国国债价值与美国通胀率挂钩的承诺。First, to protect the safety of US Dollar reserves held by coun
9、tries, Asian countries should join hands to demand that the U.S. make commitments to peg the value of US treasury bonds to the inflation rates of US Dollar.长期以来形成的数以百万亿美元计的金融衍生品，积聚了巨大的金融泡沫，使美元贬值成为一个必然的历史趋势。不久前美联储购买美国国债的行为，在某种意义上等于启动了美元贬值的程序。一旦出现美元和美国国债的泡沫化，拥有大量美元资产储备的亚洲国家将蒙受重大损失。美国政府出于刺激经济的需求，希望亚洲国家
10、继续购买美国国债，奥运会巴马总统多次表示美元仍然是安全的储备货币。已经拥有相当数量并将继续购买美国国债的国家，包括日本、印度和中国，应当联合起来，要求美国政府做出美国国债和美元通胀率挂钩的承诺，这既可以消除美国国债购买国对美元贬值而遭受损失的担心，又可使美国政府继续得到外国资金支持，以帮助美国经济尽快走向复苏，从而创造一个双赢的局面。For a long time in the past, tens of billions of US Dollars worth of financial derivatives have accumulated, creating financial bubb
11、les of enormous scale. The depreciation of the dollar has become an inevitable historical trend. The recent purchase of treasury bonds by the Federal Reserve in a sense initiated the procedures of dollar depreciation. Once the bubble occurs in the dollar and treasury bonds, Asian countries holding l
12、arge reserve assets in dollar will suffer severe losses. The US government for the purpose of stimulating its economy, hopes that Asian countries continue to buy US T bonds and President Obama on many occasions maintained that US dollar is still the safe reserve currency. Countries which have consid
13、erable holdings and will continue to buy US T bonds such as Japan, India and China should join hands to demand that U.S. make commitments to peg the value of US treasury bonds to the inflation rates of US Dollar. This will help dispel the worries of these countries on losses from the depreciation of
14、 the dollar and on the other hand enable the US government to continue to gain foreign capital support, pushing the US economy to recovery as early as possible, thus creating a win-win situation.第二，为了推动国际储备货币体系改革，亚洲国家应以清迈协议为基础，探索以特别提款权作为亚洲储备货币。Second, to promote the reform of international reserve c
15、urrency system, Asian countries should, based on the Chiang Mai Initiative, explore the SDR as the Asian reserve currency.未来全球货币体系，应当形成以美元、欧元、人民币三足鼎立的支撑架构。三种货币作为结算手段，供各国企业和政府选择。哪种货币出现贬值趋势，各国即抛弃这种货币；哪种货币具有升值趋势，各国则购入这种货币。三者之间既相互竞争，又相互调剂，才有可能形成相对稳定的国际金融体系。但人民币的国际化还有相当长的路程，在完善的资本市场和发达的兑换体系形成之前，在人民币完全可兑换
16、实现之前，人民币不可能成为国际货币。面对当前全球金融市场剧烈波动的形势，各国政府和企业都在寻找安全的货币保值办法。国际货币基金组织已经发明了与一揽子货币挂钩的特别提款权（SDR）作为保值储备手段。不久前，周小川先生提出以 SDR 代替国家主权货币作为国际储备货币的动议，已经引起国际货币基金组织领导人的注意，并且可能在今年进讨论。与其进行旷日持久的等待，不如先从亚洲做起。以清迈协议为基础，在扩大储备资金规模的同时，探讨以各国 GDP 权重和国际一揽子货币挂钩的方式，引入特别提款权作为储备货币。通过这种手段扩大亚洲国家的金融合作，可以达到一箭三雕的效果；一是可以增强亚洲国家抵御金融风险的能力；二是可以保证亚洲各国外汇储备的安全；三是可以增强对亚洲以外国家的吸引力，为 SDR 在国际货币基金组织管理下的扩大规模创造先行先试的试验。For the future global currency system, the architecture with three pillars of US Dollar, Euro and RMB yuan is recommended. The
