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1、“Belt and Road” and the development of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei regionChristopher Pissarides London School of Economics and Hong Kong University of Science and TechnologyLinjun Group, Shihese May 2017The Belt and Road Initiative Two general ideas, development of the old silk route to Europe via cen
2、tral Asia (the “Belt”) and a new “Maritime Road” via South China Sea, Indian Ocean, Red Sea to the Mediterranean (the “Road”) Its big: the main policy initiative of President Xi , promoting economic, cultural and political ties in 60+ countries In recent Forum (May 2017) President Xi put more emphas
3、is and pledged more money in this initiative2One Belt One Road map, 20133Purpose Economic cooperation with countries on the routes: infrastructure investments by China, trade agreements to follow Reduce trade costs to Europe Closer cultural ties: more tourism, more student exchanges Cooperation on e
4、nvironmental and climate matters4Timeline: progress so far?Launched in 2013. So far 150bn USD ring-fenced and the new Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank (capital USD 100bn, to lend up to 250bn) will give it priority. Expected total investment approximately 1tr USD.Began by bringing in to the plan v
5、arious independent initiatives, such as, infrastructure projects that had already started, the Pakistan port and rail development, the Indonesia-Philippines-Myanmar cooperation agreement, ASEAN free trade area, some investments in Europe (e.g., Piraeus, Istanbul ports). Many more under study5May 201
6、7 forumMore emphasis given to the initiative by President Xi, with 7 new priorities: More agreements on China-Europe railway cargo services More money pledged from government and state banks Business and trade cooperation agreements with 30+ countries Host China International Import Expo starting 20
7、18 Launch Belt and Road Science, Technology and Innovation Cooperation Action Plan 60bn CNY to improve peoples well-being Set up liaison mechanisms for the Forums follow-up activities6Strong push Clearly a strong push from the government Includes trade agreements with countries between Europe and Ch
8、ina and pledge to carry more trade to Europe over land Includes scientific cooperation More funds to accelerate construction and more social help7Economic benefits: Trade Chinas trade with Europe (its main trading partner) and United States has been critical to its economic development 90% of it is
9、carried by foreign sea carriers OBOR shifts emphasis to land transportation and to improving the sea routes8Falling trade costs This will have double impact: reduce trade costs and shift more trade to Chinese carriers Although sea routes will improve, biggest improvement will be in land routes So bi
10、ggest beneficiaries from falling trade costs will be countries without sea ports Central Asia, Central and Eastern Europe. 9Domestic Chinese development Chinas enormous growth based on Pacific coastal regions OBOR shifts emphasis to investments in other parts of the country: Xinjiang, Lanzhou and th
11、e North-West10Chinese investments Good for Chinese companies Areas covered by OBOR are extremely short of infrastructure, potential rate of return high Chinese companies have a lot of experience in infrastructure construction and as demand is satisfied in mainland China, OBOR opens up new markets fo
12、r them11Foreign reserves Rate of return on foreign Chinese reserves is low - being heavily weighted into US Treasury Bills. OBOR opens up more possibilities with potentially higher returns, although more volatile (higher financial risk)12Success prospects There are good economic fundamentals trade f
13、lows, natural resources along the route The development prospects in Central Asia are good but with some exceptions (notably in Kazakhstan) they have not yet been tapped Its geography is its biggest asset - a vast region with many natural resources, small population and poor infrastructure13Trade pr
14、ospects Although trade volumes started slowing down they will pick up. Europe will remain Chinas biggest trading partner OBOR will reduce trade costs so both Europe and China should be interested in its success New bilateral agreements with Eurasian countries should boost trade between them and Chin
15、a14Risks Risks are mainly geopolitical and availability of initial financeWith respect to finance, Chinese government and banks (Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, China Development bank) giving it priorityBut geopolitical risks present: disputes in South China Seas, US-Japan not interested and w
16、ooing India, Pakistan more firmly supporter of OBOR, unstable Middle East, risky corruption/piracy in Africa, Central Asian republics have not yet completely developed their own identity post Soviet Union15The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (Jing- Jin-Ji) region Where does it fit in OBOR? Initially land belt started in Xian and sea roads in Shanghai New economic corridor under consideration
