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1、Asia Pacific Equity Research 14 September 2010 Ambow Education Initiation Overweight AMBO, AMBO US Enhancing Chinese Students Educational and Professional Prospects; Initiate with an Overweight Price: $10.00 Price Target: $12.00 China Education Services Dick WeiAC (852) 2800-8535 J.P. Morgan Securi
2、ties (Asia Pacific) Limited Andrew C. Steinerman (1-212) 622-2527 J.P. Morgan Securities Inc. Ritesh Gupta (91-22) 6157 3307 J.P. Morgan India Private Limited See page 50 for analyst certification and important disclosures, including non-US analyst disclosures. J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do bus
3、iness with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Ambow Price
4、Performance ChartUS$ 6810124-Aug-1022-Aug-109-Sep-10Ambow S integration .7 Potential local and senior management departures.7 Potential VC sell-offs.7 Limited operating history.8 Regulatory Risks in China.8 Valuation and Rating.9 Comparables Valuation Analysis.9 Comparative Valuations Table.12 Compa
5、ny Profile.13 Detailed Investment Case Analysis .14 Key positives .14 Getting a good education: the dream of millions of Chinese.14 Three-pronged growth strategy to quickly gain market share in the fragmented Chinese education market.16 Leadership position in least-regulated spaces.18 Consistent qua
6、lity across broad geographies .21 Four separate businesses? We view Ambow as an education platform.22 Strong acquisition integration capabilities.25 Two-layered management leads to better effectiveness.27 Competitive landscape .29 Financial Statement Analysis.30 Expect strong revenue CAGR of 41% (20
7、09-2012) .30 How much is our forecast is based on future acquisitions? .33 Acquisition growth .34 Cost of revenues.36 Sales and marketing expenses.36 General and administrative expenses.37 R this large demographic should continue to support long-term growth in the post-secondary career enhancement m
8、arket. Figure 1: High base of student populations (In Mn) 1328201 203045619 040080012001600PopulationK-12 StudentsCollege StudentsChinaUSSource: U.S. National Center for Education Statistics; IDC, NSBC. All data for 2008. Chinese families spend more on education An average Chinese family spends 3.8%
9、 of its disposal income on education vs. 2.1% for a US family. As more and more Chinese middle-class families become affluent with higher disposable incomes, the demand for quality education is likely to increase as well. The spending on education in China is expected to grow at a CAGR of 20.7% from
10、 2008-2013, according to IDC. Leadership position in Tutoring and Career Enhancement According to CCID and IDC, Ambow is the Number 1 player in after-school tutoring and post-secondary IT career enhancement markets in China. The addressable markets include a prospective customer base of 184 million students in elementary schools and high schools, 41 million students in universities and a large base of working professionals. Low college admission rate an
