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1、1现在美国的一个农民，我到你们的农场去看，一个农民，就是你们的所谓农场主啦， farmer，不是 peasant，你们一个农场主能够生产 120 人以上的粮食，但是我们中国按照目 前的情况来看，一个农民也就生产 3 个人到 5 个人的粮食，这个相差得极远，所以在这样 的农业基础上我们中国实现工业化是非常困难的。吃饭问题解决不了。所以必须是集约化 生产，搞规模经济。 I have visited your farm. Now one farmer in the United States can produce grain for 120 people. But in China, one fa
2、rmer or peasant can only produce grain for 3 to 5 people. This is a major difference. And it is difficult for China to become industrialized on such an agricultural basis. We have to solve the problem of feeding the people first. So we must have intensive production and economies of scale. 要搞规模经济的话，
3、首先就必须把劳动力输出出来。而中国在这方面的主要经验就是 不再重复西方国家所走的道路，不是一条腿走路，只是把农民引导到城市，而是两条腿走 路，一个呢是到城市，另一个呢就是搞成以乡镇企业为基础的搞小城镇，这样两条路。 To have economies of scale, we need to move the farmers out of the rural area. The lesson for China is that we should not repeat the history of development in the West, where they simply direc
4、ted the farmers to the cities and did nothing else. We should lead some farmers to the cities on the one hand and on the other hand develop small towns based on rural industries. We call this walking with two legs.经济学中有个很普通的一个原理，叫做以就业带动就业。有一部分人就业了，他就有 钱了，他就要花钱了。花钱，更多的人就有工作了，更多的人又就业了，他又要花钱，又 有更多的人有工作
5、，以就业带动就业。所以，对民工的看法应该是这样看，而且从中国整 个经济来看，民工潮的出现是有好处的，不能老是去埋怨，说坐火车那么挤，我放门口的 自行车又给骑走了等等。 There is a very common theory in economics Employment creates employment. When someone becomes employed he will make money and purchase. This will require more production and therefore more people will be employed, a
6、nd the process goes on and on. So our view towards the migrant workers should be like this: They will create more jobs, and migration is good to the whole economy. We should not always complain the train is too crowded and my bike is gone again.民工出来，他的观念就发生了变化。今天出来的民工被称为第二代民工，跟八十年代 的是不一样的。80 年代初我的学生
7、到深圳去问那些打工仔，你出来是干什么的？当时大多 数人不好意思回答你的问题，个别人悄悄在你耳朵旁边说，赚两个钱回去讨个老婆，这是 当时的想法。今天就不一样了，你问她出来干嘛？他会告诉你，我学本事来了。你们懂技 术，懂经营管理，我也得学呀！这是巨大的人力投资呀！8000 万民工自己花钱培养自己， 国家没有花一分钱，叶落归根，哪怕民工回去三分之一，家乡就会起变化。 Migration will help change the farmers value. Todays migrant workers are migrant workers of the second generation, who
8、 are different from those in the 1980s. In the 1980s, my students went to Shenzhen and asked the young migrant workers what they were there for. Most of them were too embarrassed to answer that question. A few would whisper on the questioners ear and tell him that they wanted to make a few dollars a
9、nd go back and get a wife. Its different today. Now when the migrant workers are asked the same question, they would answer that they were 2here to learn skills and management. This is a huge investment on human resource development made by the farmers themselves. The state doesnt have to spend a si
10、ngle cent. These people will ultimately go back. Even if only one third of them go back, changes will take place in their home villages. 我们去天津市大丘庄去参观，它是中国很成功的一个典型。那么当然它现在出了问题 啦，它的头头犯了罪了，那是另外一回事。但是从它发展经济的道路来讲，我觉得是很对 的，它就是发展乡镇工业，以工建农。它只有大概 3000 亩的土地吧，这个 3000 亩土地原 来需要 3000 人耕种，现在只要 16 个人，因为它机械化了。所以它的劳动
11、生产力就提高得 比较快。 We visited Daqiuzhuang in Tianjin and that is a successful example of rural development. Of course we now know its head broke the law and it now encounters some trouble. But that is a different matter and I think the path of its development is correct. That is, they develop rural indust
12、ries to support agriculture. This village has only about 3000 mu of land which was cultivated by 3000 people before. Now only 16 are needed because the farming is mechanized. So their productivity improved very fast. 民工出来要把钱带回家的呀。现在出来有多少民工呢？估计不一样。据说有 8000 万 人。每人每月寄一百块钱回家，一人一年 1200，8000 万民工出来就意味着每年有
13、1000 亿 元从沿海、从城市流向内地、农村。这 1000 亿元到了农村，改善了当地生活，繁荣了当地 市场，活跃了当地经济。这是大好处嘛。 Migrant workers will send money back to their home villages. There are different estimations on the number of migrant workers. It is said we now have 80 million of them. Lets suppose each will send 100 yuan RMB back home each mont
14、h and thatll be 1,200 yuan each year. Eighty million people means 100 billion yuan. This money will flow from the coastal regions and cities to inland and rural areas. It will help improve the local livelihood, boost the local market and stimulate the local economy. This is a huge benefit. 但是经济学可能是跟
15、一个自然科学很相近的。跟什么呢？跟医学是比较相近的。比如 你本来是个没有病的人，你身体是很健康的，你到医院看病时，那个医生不负责任，或者 医生的水平很差，或者仪器出了故障，哎呀，你不得了了，你的心脏大部分都坏死了，你 这是癌症呀，等等等，这样以后，本来没有病的，回来以后呢，整天害怕，病就真的来了。Probably economics is similar to one natural science, the medical science. For example, you go to a hospital and a doctor tells you, for whatever reaso
16、n, that you are seriously ill. He said you have a cancer or most of your heart is dead. You will come back and worry about it all day long, and you will wind up getting really ill. Good morning Ladies and Gentlemen, I stand before you today with a confession to make. It relates to something that I did recently. Exactly one month ago, I delivered a speech to another American audience. I made several suggestions. One of which was that when travelling
