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2、年庆，五折优惠中，可以通过以上方式咨询！五周年庆，五折优惠中，可以通过以上方式咨询！The South China Sea bubble南中国海泡沫THE trading floor at Saigon Securities in Ho Chi Minh City is buzzing1 on Monday morning, as shares edge towards another record closing high. Hundreds of investors watch the big-screen display of prices; their eyes fixed on th
3、eir stocks, their ears fixed to their mobile phones.周一上午，胡志明市西贡证券公司的交易大厅里人声鼎沸，其时股票收盘价几近再创历史新高。数百名投资者注视着显示股价的大屏幕，一边紧盯着自己的股票，一边不停地打电话。Like many locals, Nguyen Kim Dinh and his wife now visit their stockbrokers every day. Mr Nguyen has retired from his job with the city government and plays the markets
4、 full-time. Many others, to their bosses consternation2, slip out of the office or spend all day checking their portfolios on the internet instead of working. （1）A sneak peek has been especially tempting of late: the main VN Index, which rose by 145% last year, was up by a further 56% by March 12th,
5、 though since then the worldwide market jitters have brought Vietnams shares off the top.跟许多当地人一样，阮金庭和他的妻子现在每天都要光顾自己的股票经纪人。阮曾是胡志明市政府的职员，现在退休了，整天价地炒股。其他上班一族也常常“溜号”到证交所或整日泡在网上查看股票情况，把工作抛到一边，这让他们的老板慌了神。特别是最近，股市的吸引力更是巨大：去年涨幅达 145%的越南指数（VN index），到 3 月 12 日再度上扬 56%，尽管在那以后全球股市震荡使得股市有所下跌。Squeezing past the
6、 tip-sheet sellers crowding the stockbrokers doorway, Mr Nguyen leads the way to a caf next door, where spivvy3 characters in baseball caps are touting shares in obscure, unlisted companies. One, whose business card describes him as “CEO” of a one-man broker, is touting a block of shares in a hydro-
7、electric firm for the equivalent of $22,000. How can we find out about this company, Mr Nguyen asks? No problem, smiles the broker, I can put you in touch with people who work inside it. 阮挤过经纪人通道密集的抛售人群，来到隔壁的一间咖啡厅。在那里，头戴棒球帽的黑市经纪人正在兜售未上市的无名公司股票。有一个名片上印着某某皮包公司“CEO”的人，卖的是一家水电公司的大宗股票，价值 2.2 万美元。阮问：怎样才能查
8、到这家公司的情况？这名经纪人笑道：没问题，我可以安排你和它的工作人员联系。（2）Insider trading and worse frauds are a grave danger on this “OTC” (over-the-caf-table) market. But risks are not much lower on the official exchange. Many firms, including state companies up for privatisation, are only now starting to keep proper, audited acco
9、unts. The State Securities Commission is struggling to keep up with the flood of new listings. Reliable information is scarce, making it easy to whip up prices by spreading rumours. Last week shares in a broker soared when it hinted it had agreed on a link-up with Wall Streets mighty Goldman Sachs,
10、then plunged when this proved untrue. 在这种“咖啡桌上的股市”进行内部交易甚至欺诈活动风险确实很大，不过官方交易所风险也低不了多少。包括准备实行私有化的国有企业在内的许多公司，其帐目审计都只是刚开始走上正轨。面对如雨后春笋般上市的公司，国家证券交易委员会（State Securities Commission）已经有些应接不暇。由于缺乏可靠的信息来源，谣言的散布很容易刺激股价大起大落。上周，某券商暗示其与华尔街巨头高盛公司“有联系”后，手中股票价格迅即飙升，而经证明并非属实后随即又骤降。The popular embrace of share-tradin
11、g is all the more remarkable given that the stockmarket did not exist until seven years ago. The bullishness is partly justified. Vietnam has enjoyed annual growth of around 7-8% since 2000. Perhaps $20 billion of foreign direct investment is expected this year, which should keep the economy humming
12、4. The government, though still nominally communist, has quickened its free-market reforms, recently joining the World Trade Organisation. Hidden horrors there may be, but some firms also have hidden treasure, notes Dominic Scriven of Dragon Capital, a local investment bank. In particular, land is o
13、ften valued on their books at well below market prices.越南股市成立才 7 年，民众对炒股竟如此倾心，的确让人刮目相看。从某种程度上看，越南股市“牛气十足”合情合理。2000 年以来，越南年度经济增长一直维持在 7%至 8%左右。今年外国直接投资还可能有望达到 200 亿美元，经济繁荣景象因此也应将持续下去。政府虽然说是共产主义政府，但实际上却在加速推进自由市场改革，前不久还加入了世界贸易组织（WTO）。当地投行 Dragon Capital 的多米尼克斯格里芬（Dominic Scriven）指出，纵然天有不测风云，有些公司也有自己的法宝
14、来应对。比如，按照账面价值对土地的估价都要大大低于市场价值。Even so, the impromptu trading rooms of Ho Chi Minh City are beginning to resemble the London coffee-houses that incubated the ruinous South Sea Bubble in the early 18th century. （3）Mr Nguyen reckons his fellow punters5 do realise that prices can go down as well as upth
15、ough some of those crowding the trading floor look as if the shirts on their backs are the only ones they have to lose.即便如此，胡志明市的黑市交易场所仍开始有了当年伦敦咖啡屋的影子。18 世纪初叶，这些咖啡屋成了南海泡沫（South Sea Bubble）的温床，很多人因此倾家荡产。阮猜想，他们这些股民心里都很清楚，股价有涨也有跌可是一眼看过去，那些簇拥在交易大厅的人给人的感觉似乎就是，即使赔了，大不了搭上身上的衬衣。Although much of the buying i
16、s local, foreign investors are also piling in to what remains a fairly small market. Its total worth has risen from $400m in early 2006 to around $22 billion. Vietnams government and the International Monetary Fund worry that if foreign investors took fright, the market could collapse.（4）The IMF is urging the government to cool the market, but preferably not through panic measures like the sledgehammer capital-controls that Thailand introduced last December. These trig
