手机的未来

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1、Native vs Web vs Hybrid Mobile Development ChoicesJason Grigsby Web Visions 2009grigs on Twitter Early 2008“Its about usage. Not units” Number of queries on Google search from iPhones surpassed those from Symbian-based phones in the days after Christmas. Nokias Symbian-based phones are 40% of the

2、 market worldwide. German iPhone users consume 30 times more data. 95% of iPhone customers regularly surf the Internet. Data services revenue increased from $2.7 billion in 2005 to $6.9 billion in 2007. Google sees 50 times the number of searches using the iPhone than any other mobile device. They w

3、ere so surprised, they asked their engineers to check the logs to make sure it was correct. This is why major companies, Google, Quicken, etc. are all launching iPhone-optimized services despite the iPhones 1% market share.Surprise Story of 2008Flickr photo by Drift Words: http:/ 2.0 Web-based Apps

4、Services & Mashups Software as Service Cloud ComputingiPhone App Store Native Apps Few APIs between apps No Recurring Revenue Local StorageFlickr photo by Civisi: http:/ StoreOpennessEntry CostRevenue SplitRestrictionsReleasesMicropaymentsClosed, Seek permissionOpen to anyone who signs agreementThou

5、sands of dollars$9960/40 to 50/5070/30ManyFewDifficult, Timely1 to 2 weeksInconsistentiTunes for every phoneWhat makes the App Store successful?http:/ http:/ million devices40,000 apps1 billion downloadsGold Rush was OnSource: http:/ Apps(FYI: Justins app is out soon. FitnessTrack. $2.99)http:/ http

6、:/furbo.org/2008/12/09/ring-tone-apps/ http:/furbo.org/2009/02/16/raising-prices/037507500112501500001.993.995.997.999.9911.9913.9915.99+Ringtone Appshttp:/ Honest iPhone App Sales: $32k Spent vs. $535 Revenuehttp:/ Appshttp:/ Appshttp:/ Medias ConclusionsUsers stop using the average applications qu

7、ickly.Long-term audiences are generally 1% of total downloadsPaid apps retain users longer, but still steep drop off.http:/ Determined by Top Lists & Featureshttp:/ Open No Gatekeeper96% Approved(what about that 4%?)10 Rejected Applicationshttp:/ TrampolineMyShoeI Am PoorThe South Park AppPull My Fi

8、ngeriBoobsSlasherMurderdomePodcasterFreedom Time“Even though my personal political leanings are Democratic, I think this app will be offensive to roughly half our customers. Whats the point?“ Steve Jobshttp:/ Only Part of World Wide Market050001000015000200001794974434714 4079 3195327437SymbianRIMWi

9、ndows MobileiPhoneLinux Palm OSOtherQ4 2008 Smartphone Sales Thousands of Unitshttp:/ BlackBerry Curve (all 83XX models)2.Apple iPhone 3G (all models)3.RIM BlackBerry Storm4.RIM BlackBerry Pearl (all models, except flip)5.T-Mobile G1iPhone Only Part of US MarketQ1 2009 Sales According to NPDhttp:/ 5

10、0% Marketshare3.3 BillionMobile phone for half the planet.Flickr photo by Pingnews: http:/ Billion in PerspectiveSource: http:/communities- http:/communities- SMS Revenue: 100 billionFlickr photo by Vlastula: http:/ SMS Revenue: 100 billionBox Office DVD Sales & Rentals Music Industry Video GamesCom

11、binedFlickr photo by Vlastula: http:/ Turned $70k MMS into $45M RevenueFlickr photo by Andr-Batista: http:/ CJava MEWebOSC+.NET Compact BREWDalvikVisual BasicCSymbianWindows MobilePalmGoogle Mobile App ChallengesPressure from CEO for rapid releases10+ platforms to supportOver 100 different buildshttp:/

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