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1、大学本科毕业论文基于变压器缺陷数据的故障预测研究BACHELORS DEGREE THESIS OF WUHAN UNIVERSITYResearch on the predicting of Power Transformers fault based on defect dataCollege ：Subject ：Name ：Director ：June 2013I郑郑 重重 声声 明明本人呈交的学位论文，是在导师的指导下，独立进行研究工作所取得的成果，所有数据、图片资料真实可靠。尽我所知，除文中已经注明引用的内容外，本学位论文的研究成果不包含他人享有著作权的内容。对本论文所涉及的研究工作
2、做出贡献的其他个人和集体，均已在文中以明确的方式标明。本学位论文的知识产权归属于培养单位。本人签名： 日期： II摘 要电力变压器是最重要的变电设备，在电力系统中处于枢纽地位，其运行状态直接影响着整个电力系统的稳定性、安全性和可靠性。变压器一旦发生事故，造成的直接和间接的经济损失是巨大的。对电力变压器的故障进行有效的预测，既可给维护人员提供必要的参考以避免维修不足或过度维修，又可以保证供电的可靠性和用户的人生安全。因此，对变压器故障预测进行研究具有重要的理论意义和工程实用。本文对电力系统中常用的油浸式变压器，基于油中溶解气体数据以及三比值故障判断法进行故障进行预测。由于目前电力系统中主要采取某
3、一天油中气体进行当天的故障判断，而连续一段时间的气体采样数据较少，所以本文选用84年93年的数据。另外，所选数据大多数呈现递增形式，灰色理论对递增数列有较好的预测效果，而且灰色理论具有所需原始数据少、计算方法交单、预测精度高的特点，所以选择灰色理论进行油中气体数据的预测。通过建立灰色预测模型，并结合三比值故障判断法，建立基于油中溶解气体数据的变压器故障预测模型。最后将预测结果与实际进行比较，得出设计结果并对不足之处提出进一步的研究方向。关键词：变压器；故障预测；灰色理论 IIIABSTRACTAs the most important substation equipment, power t
4、ransformer plays all important role in the power systemIts states during operation directly affect the stability, safety and reliability of the whole power systemThe failures of transformers can result in serious issues, such as service disruptions and severe economic lossesTherefore, effective faul
5、t prediction on the power transformer can provide maintenance personnel with the necessary reference to avoid under-maintenance or excessive maintenance，and can guarantee the power supplys reliability and users safety as well So, it has great theoretical significance and engineering practical value
6、to research on the prediction of the faults in power transformerIn this paper, we research on the projection of the widely used oil-immersed transformers fault based on the DGA data and three ratios fault diagnosis method. Since that we mainly use one days date to diagnosis the transformers fault no
7、wadays, but continuous period of gas sampling data is less, so I use the data of year 1984 and year 1993. In addition, most forms of the selected data shows an increasing, while the gray theory has better prediction results for increasing numbers than other model, and gray theory has less raw data n
8、eeded to calculate pay a single method to predict the characteristics of high precision, so I chose the gray theory to forecast oil gas data.Through the establishment of gray prediction model, and combined with three ratios fault diagnosis method to establish a transformer failure prediction model b
9、ased on dissolved gas data.Finally, the predicted results are compared with the actual situation, obtained the inadequacies of design results and propose the further research directions.Key words: transformer; fault prediction; grey theory目 录郑 重 声 明.I摘 要.IIABSTRACT.III第 1 章 绪论.11.1 变压器故障预测的研究背景及意义.11.2 变压器故障预测研究现状.11.3 本文的主要工作.5第 2 章 变压器故障分析.62.1 变压器介绍.62.1.1 变压器原理.62.1.2 变压器分类.62.1.3 变压器的基本结构.62.1.4 变压器的安装方式.72.2 变压器故障分析.82.3 结论.132.4 本章小结.15第 3 章 变压器油中溶解气体与故障的关系 .163.1 变压器油中溶解气体的来源.163.2 变压器油中气体特征.163.2.1 过热故障.163.2.2 放电故障.173.2.3 受潮.
