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1、North America Equity Research 24 January 2018Equity Ratings and Price Targets Mkt CapRatingPrice Target CompanyTicker($ mn)Price ($)CurPrevCurPrev AllscriptsMDRX US2,825.0115.37OWn/c17.00n/c athenahealthATHN US5,260.88129.26Nn/c146.00n/c CernerCERN US23,440.1969.19Nn/c72.00n/c CotivitiCOTV US3,333.9
2、335.00OWn/c38.00n/c Evolent HealthEVH US1,015.5114.90OWn/c25.00n/c HealthEquityHQY US3,031.4349.08OWn/c51.0052.00 Premier, Inc.PINC US4,634.5232.95Nn/c30.00n/c Quality SystemsQSII US845.4413.56UWn/c14.00n/c Source: Company data, Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan estimates. n/c = no change. All prices as of 23
3、Jan 18.Healthcare Technology MDRX US) FYE Dec2016A2017E2018E2019E EPS Adjusted ($) Q1 (Mar)0.130.13A0.20- Q2 (Jun)0.140.15A0.23- Q3 (Sep)0.140.16A0.21- Q4 (Dec)0.140.200.24- FY0.550.610.891.05 Bloomberg EPS FY ($)0.570.620.780.91 Source: Company data, Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan estimates.Investment Thes
4、is, Valuation and RisksAllscripts(Overweight; Price Target: $17.00)Investment Thesis We rate shares of Allscripts Overweight. We believe Allscripts historical investments in product adjacencies leave it well positioned to benefit from the next leg of clinical systems growth, which will be more cross
5、-sales focused. Although we dont think Allscripts is positioned as well as Cerner, Epic, or athenahealth in the new install EHR market, we view this as a trade: although MDRX is less likely to see one-off outsized growth occurrences from large new wins, it should see more stable growth from subscrip
6、tion-based sales into its existing client base. We note that this strategy has a high incremental margin, which should allow MDRX to enjoy solid double-digit EPS growth.Valuation MDRX trades at 16x our revised CY18 EPS, below its three-year forward average of 20x. Our December 2018 price target of $
7、17 rolls forward the current 16x P/E multiple to our CY19E EPS.Risks to Rating and Price Target For Allscripts, current valuations assume improving financial performance, and should earnings trends not improve, we believe there could be downside from current levels. Although bookings improved in 201
8、3, the shift to more subscription-based revenues creates significant uncertainty in the business model. In addition, competition from both ends of the market (larger inpatient HIT companies and smaller SaaS-based ambulatory companies) could prove to be challenging for Allscripts in winning new busin
9、ess and retaining current customers. 7North America Equity Research 24 January 2018Lisa C. Gill (1-212) 622-6466 athenahealthNeutralCompany Data Price ($)129.26 Date Of Price 23 Jan 18 52-week Range ($)158.66-95.01 Market Cap ($ mn)5,260.88 Fiscal Year End Dec Shares O/S (mn)41 Price Target ($)146.0
10、0 Price Target End Date 31-Dec-18athenahealth, Inc. (ATHN;ATHN US) FYE Dec2016A2017E2018E2019E EPS Adjusted ($) Q1 (Mar)0.340.32A0.580.68 Q2 (Jun)0.340.51A0.750.87 Q3 (Sep)0.600.56A0.911.04 Q4 (Dec)0.620.640.931.02 FY1.902.033.173.61 Bloomberg EPS FY ($)1.782.022.903.55 Source: Company data, Bloombe
11、rg, J.P. Morgan estimates.Investment Thesis, Valuation and Risksathenahealth(Neutral; Price Target: $146.00)Investment Thesis We are Neutral athenahealth shares. Although we have a favorable view on ATHNs differentiated web-based offering, we believe the companys physician end-market focus puts it a
12、t risk of losing market share, which could weigh on growth metrics. Although ATHN has made early inroads in the inpatient market, moving to the upmarket is no easy task, and we expect slower than expected contributions from this market segment. With investors still focused on growth acceleration but
13、 market saturation and ATHNs end-market positioning at the low end creating significant headwinds to bookings, doctor adds, and the top line, we see a disconnect in expectations and remain Neutral until this dynamic rationalizes.Valuation Our December 2018 ATHN price target of $146 is derived by app
14、lying a 4.1x EV/revenue multiple to our CY19 revenue of $1,461M. ATHN currently trades at 3.6x CY18 revenues, just below our target multiple. Our target price implies a 2018 EV/EBITDA multiple of 18x. We estimate ATHN sales will grow at 10% and EBITDA will grow at nearly 20% in 2018. Risks to Rating
15、 and Price Target Risks to the upside include: A recovery in bookings growth to historical 30%+ levels Faster than expected traction within the hospital marketRisks to the downside include:Multiple compression if ATHN trades more in line with HCIT or EHR peersGreater than expected market share losse
16、s as ATHNs physician customers move into hospital systems 8North America Equity Research 24 January 2018Lisa C. Gill (1-212) 622-6466 CernerNeutralCompany Data Price ($)69.19 Date Of Price 23 Jan 18 52-week Range ($)73.86-50.33 Market Cap ($ mn)23,440.19 Fiscal Year End Dec Shares O/S (mn)339 Price Target ($)72.00 Price Target End Date 31-Dec-18Cerner Corporation (CERN;CERN US) FYE
