《德银-全球-钢材市场-钢材价格追踪：西部市场价格持续上涨；煤价下跌》由会员分享，可在线阅读，更多相关《德银-全球-钢材市场-钢材价格追踪：西部市场价格持续上涨；煤价下跌（22页珍藏版）》请在金锄头文库上搜索。
1、25 January 2018SteelSteel Price TrackerSteel SteelPeriodicalEurope Austria FranceIndustrySteel Price TrackerDate 25 January 2018Deutsche BankMarkets ResearchWestern market prices keep moving up; Coal downWill steel prices fall or maintain their strength? Steel equities continue to be volatile, drive
2、n by macro woes and commodity price movements. Although current spot conditions remain strong, we still expect cost support to fade, and thus, European prices to fall (current spot conditions wouldimply further significant earnings upgrades across the space). Our top picks are:1) ArcelorMittal, whic
3、h looks attractive to us based on strong cash flow (9-11% FCF yield), valuation and additional upside optionality; and 2) Voestalpine, which we believe has more room for upgrades, generates strong underlying CF (8-9% FCF yield) and has a less volatile business model.HRC: N. European prices up E7 Fig
4、ure 1: HRC prices2002503003504004505005506006507007508008509009501,0001,050Jan 14Apr 14Jul 14Oct 14Jan 15Apr 15Jul 15Oct 15Jan 16Apr 16Jul 16Oct 16Jan 17Apr 17Jul 17Oct 17Jan 18Northern EuropeUSAChina exports to EuropeUSD/tSource: The Steel IndexLast week, N. European prices were up by E7 to E548 (u
5、p USD21 to USD671) and S. European prices were also up by E4 to E528 (up by USD16 to USD646). Prices have risen E16 in the past three months and several European players still try to push for further price rises.US HRC prices up USD28; Chinese export prices down USD4US HRC prices were up USD28 last
6、week. The price differential with China increased to USD195/t. Chinese HRC prices were down by USD4 to USD568. The spread between Chinese and S. European prices rose to USD78, above than two- year average spread of USD58, with Chinese prices down E6 (up in USD terms to USD17) in the last three month
7、s.Plate: N. European prices up E12; US prices up by USD27 Figure 2: Raw material prices15020025030035040045050055030507090110130150170190210Jan 15Mar 15May 15Jul 15Sep 15Nov 15Jan 16Mar 16May 16Jul 16Sep 16Nov 16Jan 17Mar 17May 17Jul 17Sep 17Nov 17Jan 18Iron ore Fines 62% Fe, CFR Tianjin, ChinaShred
8、ded scrap, US (RHS)USD/tUSD/tSource: The Steel IndexN. European prices were up E12 to E594 (up USD27 to USD727). Prices rose E16 in the past month. S. European prices were up by E6 to E556 (up USD20 to USD681). US prices were up by USD27 to USD851 (up E9 to E695).Iron ore: Fines 62% Fe prices down U
9、SD1/dmt; coking coal: prices down USD18 The price of Fines 62% were down by USD1 WoW to USD75/dmt. Chinese steel output increased 3.7% WoW to 1.78mt/day in the last ten days of December. Prices of premium coking coal (Australian exports) decreased by USD18 to USD221 last week. They were down by E15
10、to E181.Scrap: European prices down USD13 We value MT using an equal blend of forward EBITDA (6.0x 2018E) and DCF (7.9% WACC, 2% Tg), and VOES using DCF (7.7% WACC, 1% Tg). Risks: weaker steel prices and demand divergence from our steel sector scenario.European prices were down by USD13 to USD345/t,
11、 while Turkish prices were down USD9 to USD365/t last week. If current prices were to remain stable until end-Q1, the QoQ price increase for European scrap in Q1 would be USD36.Bastian SynagowitzResearch Analyst+41-44-227-3377Top picksArcelorMittal (MT.AS),EUR30.10BuyVoestalpine (VOES.VI),EUR54.60Bu
12、ySource: Deutsche BankDeutsche Bank AG/LondonDeutsche Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should beaware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this repor
13、t as only a single factor in making their investment decision. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. MCI (P) 083/04/2017.Distributed on: 25/01/2018 09:15:10 GMT7T2se3r0Ot6kwoPa25 January 2018SteelSteel Price TrackerDeutsche Bank Steel 2) lower-than-expected steel prices,
14、which could result in an erosion of earnings; 3) higher raw material and other operating costs, whichcould limit earnings growth; 4) the political influence of governments in the steel trade; 5) expansion projects not progressing as expected; and 6) M as such, investors shouldtake expert legal and f
15、inancial advice before entering into any transaction similar to or inspired by the contents of this publication. The risk of loss in futures trading and options, foreign or domestic, can be substantial. As a result of the high degree of leverage obtainable in futures and options trading, losses may
16、be incurred that are greater than the amount of funds initially deposited up to theoretically unlimited losses. Trading in options involves risk and is not suitable for all investors. Prior to buying or selling an option, investors must review the “Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options”, at http:/ If you are unable to access the website, please contact your Deutsche Bank representative for a copy of this important doc
