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1、24 January 2018 Economic Desknote www.GlobalM Brazil: Lula loses appeal The Appeals Court (TRF-4) upheld Lulas conviction, turning him ineligible.Electoral law allows Lula to start campaigning, but he is unlikely to finish it.The Workers Party (PT) is expected to announce Lula as their candidate in
2、the coming days.The Appeals Court on Wednesday upheld the corruption conviction of former President Luiz Incio Lula da Silva. Lula was earlier found guilty of money laundering and passive corruption charges in an investigation related to the car wash scandal. A panel of three judges reviewed that de
3、cision and decided to unanimously uphold it. One important consequence of todays decision is that, while Lula can appeal the decision to superior courts, he is now considered ineligible - although he can still ask for the registration of his candidacy by 15 August. Given the unanimous decision, Lula
4、 cannot request a broad reassessment of the verdict itself (“embargos infringentes“ as it is known in judicial terms in Brazil). The next step for the lawyers of the former president is to request for “clarification” about the verdict. This request usually delays the written decision by about 20 day
5、s, but does not change the decision itself. Following the final decision of the Appeals Court, Lula can still appeal to the superior court (STJ), and finally to the Supreme Court (STF). However, the decision of turning Lula ineligible would remain in place while the superior courts reassess it. The
6、electoral law allows Lula to start the campaign even though he is ultimately ineligible. Despite being found guilty, Lula can seek registration until 15 August. Every candidate receives a temporary permit to start the official campaign while the Electoral Court assesses eligibility. The full process
7、 is described in Table 1 and could take about 20 days or longer. The campaign officially starts on 18 August, with TV and radio advertisement starting on 21 August. If the timetable below is confirmed, Lula would be allowed to do TV and radio ads until the first to second week of September, as he aw
8、aits the final decision of the Electoral Court. Another important deadline is 17 September this is the date for any party to substitute candidates. If the final decision on Lulas candidacy takes longer than that, there is a risk for the Workers Party (PT) ending without a candidate. The first round
9、of the election is scheduled to take place on 7 October, with second round (run-off) scheduled for 21 October. Finally, as seems likely, if the Electoral Court denies Lulas registration, he can appeal the Electoral Courts decision in the Supreme Court. STF has sided with the Electoral Courts decisio
10、n when a candidate was previously found guilty unanimously. Yet, this would be the first time a strong presidential candidate would be challenged, making it potentially more uncertain. In all, following the Appeals Court decision, the chances of Lula being an eligible candidate have fallen dramatica
11、lly. Nevertheless, objections against todays decision are likely to continue most of the year, even during campaigning. The Workers Party (PT) is expected to ignore the courts decision and officially announce Lula as their candidate in the coming days. Table 1: Electoral law steps since registration
12、 Steps Likely dates Step 1: Registration of candidates 20 July to 15 August Step 2: Preliminary list of candidates to be released 18 August Step 3: Deadline to challenge the registration of candidates 23 August (or about 5 days after step 2) Step 4: Electoral Court to confirm the challenged candidat
13、es 25 August (or about 2 days after step 3) Step 5: Deadline for challenged candidates to present their case 1 September (or about 7 days after step 4) Step 6: Electoral Court to decide 4 September (if the usual schedule remains) Step 7: Deadline for Lulas request for clarification 7 September (or 3
14、 days after step 6) Step 8: Deadline to appeal to Supreme Court 10 September (or 3 days after step 7) Source: Portal 360 (in Portuguese), BNP Paribas Appeals court upholds decision unanimously Author: Gustavo Arruda Economist Banco BNP Paribas Brasil SA Lula can appeal to the superior court Although
15、 ineligible, Lula can start campaigning The final decision could be against Lula Legal Notice This document has been written by our Global Markets Research teams; it does not purport to be an exhaustive analysis, and may be subject to conflicts of interest resulting from their interaction with sales
16、 and trading which could affect the objectivity of this report. This document is non-independent research for the purpose of the UK Financial Conduct Authority rules. For the purposes of the recast Markets in Financial Instruments Directive (2014/65/EU) (MiFID II), non-independent research constitutes a marketing communication. This document is not investment research for the purposes of MiFID II. It has not been pre
