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1、Flash Economics 22 January 2018 - 65 Patrick Artus Tel. (33 1) 58 55 15 00 PatrickArtus Are the ECBs choices understandable? The euro-zone economy is improving markedly, the unemployment rate is nearing the structural unemployment rate and deflation is no longer a threat, and yet the ECB is keeping
2、 a highly expansionary monetary policy in place. Is this choice understandable? We do not believe that it truly results from a desire to lift inflation to close to 2%, now that deflation is no longer a threat;It may result from the idea that even when the economy is close to full employment, demand
3、stimulus can have positive effects: increasing the participation rate, encouraging companies to make productivity gains;It may also result from concern at what could ensue should the bond bubble burst in the euro zone: crisis among institutional investors, public finance crisis.Distribution of this
4、report in the United States. See important disclosures at the end of this report. Flash Economics 2 The ECBs behaviour may surprise The ECB will exit quantitative easing in 2018 (Chart 1A), but it seems determined to keep its key interest rates zero or negative over a long period (Chart 1B). -150-10
5、0-500501001502002502006001,0001,4001,8002,2002,6003,0003,40002 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18Chart 1A Euro zone: Monetary base (in EUR bn)In absolute terms (LHS)Month-on-month change (RHS)Sources: Datastream, ECB, Natixis -1012345-101234502 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
6、17 18Chart 1B Euro zone: Euro repo rate and interest rate on banks deposits at the ECB (as %)Euro repo rateInterest rate on banks deposits at the ECBSources: Datastream, ECB, NatixisThe fact it is keeping its monetary policy expansionary may surprise: growth is much higher than potential growth in t
7、he euro zone (Chart 2A), the unemployment rate is nearing the structural unemployment rate (Chart 2B), deflation is no longer a threat (Chart 2C) and nominal wages are accelerating slightly (Chart 2D). -6-4-20246-6-4-2024602 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18Chart 2A Euro zone: Real GDP
8、 and real potential growth (Y/Y as %)Real GDP (Y/Y as %)Real potential growth*Sources: Datastream, ECB, Eurostat, Natixis(*) Per capita productivity smoothed over the past 5 years + labour force (Y/Y as %)67891011121367891011121302 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18Chart 2B Euro zone: U
9、nemployment rate (as %)Sources: Datastream, Eurostat, Natixis-1012345-101234502 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18Chart 2C Euro zone: Inflation (Y/Y as %)Inflation (CPI)Underlying inflation (core* CPI)Sources: Datastream, Eurostat, Natixis(*) Excl. energy and food1.01.52.02.53.03.51.01.
10、52.02.53.03.502 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18Chart 2D Euro zone: Nominal per capita wage (Y/Y as %)Sources: Datastream, Eurostat, NatixisFlash Economics 3 How can this discrepancy between the ECBs monetary policy and the state of the euro- zone economy be explained? Are we able to
11、explain the ECBs behaviour? Are we able to explain why the ECB is keeping its monetary policy so expansionary when the euro-zone economy is clearly in better shape? (1) Now that there is no longer a risk of deflation, it is hard to believe that the ECB is making so much effort merely to lift inflati
12、on towards 2% (Chart 2C above). Due to nominal wage stickiness, rising inflation is also eroding household purchasing power (Chart 3). -1012345-101234502 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18Chart 3 Euro zone: Inflation and nominal per capita wage (Y/Y as %)Inflation (CPI)Nominal per capit
13、a wageSources: Datastream, Eurostat, Natixis(2) It is possible that the ECB thinks that stimulating demand for goods and services when the economy is close to full employment can have positive effects. This stimulus may encourage people who had left the labour market to return to it, paving the way
14、for an increase in the participation rate (Chart 4). It may also lead companies to increase labour productivity in the face of hiring difficulties (Chart 5). 7980818283848586798081828384858602 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18Chart 4 Euro zone: Participation rate* (as %)Sources: Eurost
15、at, Natixis(*) Employment + unemployment / population aged 20 to 65-6-4-2024-6-4-202402 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18Chart 5 Euro zone: Per capita productivity (Y/Y as %)Y/Y as %Y/Y as %, smoothed over the past 5 yearsSources: Datastream, ECB, Natixis(3) It is possible that the ECB
16、 fears the effects of a bursting of the bond bubble. There is currently a bond bubble in the euro zone, as shown by the very low level of long-term interest rates (Chart 6). Flash Economics 4 -6-4-202468-6-4-20246802 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18Chart 6 Euro zone: Nominal GDP and interest rate on 10- year government bondsNominal GDP (Y/Y as %)Euro zone excl. Greece: 10-year govt. interes
