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1、U.S. MediaKannan Venkateshwar+1 212 528 BCI, USDivyaunsh Divatia+1 212 526 BCI, USShelley Yang+1 212 526 BCI, USU.S. InternetRoss Sandler+1 415 263 BCI, USEquity Research11 January 2018Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of its affiliates does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its rese
2、arch reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATION(S) AND IMPORTANT DIS
3、CLOSURES BEGINNING ON PAGE 48.U.S. Internet and Media Netflix Inc.: Binging recommended; Initiate at OWBarclays | Netflix, Inc. Summary of our Ratings, Price Targets and Earnings Changes in this Report (all changes are shown in bold) Company Rating Price Price Target EPS FY1 (E) EPS FY2 (E) Old New
4、09-Jan-18 Old New %Chg Old New %Chg Old New %Chg U.S. Media Neu Neu Netflix Inc (NFLX) N/A OW 209.31 N/A 245.00 - N/A 1.21 - N/A 2.32 - Source: Barclays Research. Share prices and target prices are shown in the primary listing currency and EPS estimates are shown in the reporting currency. FY1(E): C
5、urrent fiscal year estimates by Barclays Research. FY2(E): Next fiscal year estimates by Barclays Research. Stock Rating: OW: Overweight; EW: Equal Weight; UW: Underweight; RS: Rating Suspended Industry View: Pos: Positive; Neu: Neutral; Neg: Negative Valuation Methodology and Risks U.S. Media Netfl
6、ix Inc (NFLX) Valuation Methodology: Our price target is $245. We value NFLX domestic segment at 18.0x 2020E EBITDA, International at 5.5x 2020E revenues, and DVD at 4x 2020E EBITDA. Risks which May Impede the Achievement of the Barclays Research Valuation and Price Target: Risk include slowdown in
7、gross adds, increased churn, continued increases in long term content and marketing spend due to fierce competition from internet players as well as legacy media companies. Source: Barclays Research. 11 January 2018 2 Barclays | Netflix, Inc. CONTENTS THEME#1: WHY HAS NETFLIX BEEN SO DISRUPTIVE? . 4
8、 Overview . 5 Aggregation vs Segmentation . 5 Retail vs Wholesale . 6 Global vs Local. 7 Technology heavy skill sets vs Content heavy skill sets . 7 .but success factors still evolving . 8 THEME #2: CAN NETFLIX CONTINUE TO RETAIN ITS COMPETITIVE EDGE? . 9 Management vision and flexibility unparallel
9、ed . 10 OTT video business models are still in early stages of evolution . 11 What makes us comfortable with this risk? . 14 THEME #3: HOW BIG IS NETFLIXS ADDRESSABLE MARKET? . 16 Scenario Analysis . 19 Subscriber Modelling . 19 Subscriber growth over the last year may prove to be a difficult benchmark . 22 THEME#4: DOES NETFLIX HAVE PRICING POWER? . 25 Pricing power likely to evolve over life cyle . 26 Consumer Inertia . 26 Relative price points of competing products . 26 Circular relationship with pace of cord cutting. 27 Longer term drivers could cap pricing power . 28 Bro
