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1、Please refer to page 9 for important disclosures and analyst certification, or on our website ASIA Macquarie Marquee Ideas Asia Target Ticker Price (LC) TSR Asia ex Japan Long China/HK Baidu BIDU US 305.00 +21% CK Asset 1113 HK 92.35 +29% COSL 2883 HK 14.00 +49% Ctrip CTRP US 63.00 +32% Hikvision 0
2、02415 CH 57.00 +35% Hua Hong Semi 1347 HK 22.00 +36% Prada 1913 HK 30.40 +5% Sunny Optical 2382 HK 220.00 +105% XiabuXiabu 520 HK 21.00 +60% ZTE 763 HK 35.00 +22% India Larsen given our expectation that EPS will expand to over 1,000/share by FY20, we see the PER multiple heading back to 20x. LinkEba
3、ra (6361 JP): Kunio Sakaida forecasts a recovery in the fluid machinery and 2) reduction in fixed costs in the domestic standard pump business (2.5bn contribution in our FY12/18 forecast). LinkMacquarie Research Macquarie Marquee Ideas 16 January 2018 2 Macquarie Marquee Ideas The Macquarie Marquee
4、Ideas (MMIs) represent our best alpha-generating ideas. MMIs are a collection of Macquarie Researchs best ideas derived from our coverage universe. The time frame for each idea is typically three months, with the list reviewed every two to four weeks. Stocks may be removed from the list earlier than
5、 the three month typical duration, if the particular MMI has played out and expected outperformance of the idea has materialised. Similarly MMIs may remain on the list for longer than three months if significant alpha is still to be generated. Fig 1 MMI Japan performance Source: Macquarie Research,
6、January 2018 Fig 2 MMI Asia ex Japan performance Source: Macquarie Research, January 2018 Selection criteria reflect high levels of analyst conviction and near term catalysts. The MMI list is selected by a group of Macquarie Research Senior Analysts, Strategists, Quantitative Research Team and Secto
7、r/Country Heads of Research. MMIs are typically in line with the analysts fundamental view. However emphasis is on level of conviction and the existence of catalysts over the next quarter. In order for institutional investors to realistically invest in MMIs, minimum stock turnover requirements have
8、also been considered. -10.00.0+10.0+20.0+30.0+40.0+50.0+60.0+70.015-Jul-1615-Aug-1615-Sep-1615-Oct-1615-Nov-1615-Dec-1615-Jan-1715-Feb-1715-Mar-1715-Apr-1715-May-1715-Jun-1715-Jul-1715-Aug-1715-Sep-1715-Oct-1715-Nov-1715-Dec-17Marquee List JapanMSCI Japan% change+63.2+37.5-10.00.0+10.0+20.0+30.0+40.
9、0+50.0+60.0+70.0+80.015-Jul-1615-Aug-1615-Sep-1615-Oct-1615-Nov-1615-Dec-1615-Jan-1715-Feb-1715-Mar-1715-Apr-1715-May-1715-Jun-1715-Jul-1715-Aug-1715-Sep-1715-Oct-1715-Nov-1715-Dec-17Marquee List Asia ex JapanMSCI Asia x-JP% change+73.6+46.6Macquarie Research Macquarie Marquee Ideas 16 January 2018
10、3 This months update focuses primarily on near term catalysts - we have removed several stocks lacking near term catalysts. On the other hand, we have added several recent high conviction ideas from our analysts. The latest additions/removals can be found on Figure 3. The list of near term catalysts
11、 for all stocks in the Marquee list can be found on Figure 4. Fig 3 Latest changes to the Marquee list Source: Macquarie Research, January 2018 Asia ex Japan Additions - LongRemovals - Long AirAsiaMalaysiaHindustan UnileverIndia CtripChina/HKKB Financial GroupKorea Hyundai M overseas market expansio
12、n; and upgrade to higher-margin solution projects. Hua Hong Semi 1347 HK ASP and margin expansion on strong MCU/ smart card IC/ IGBT demand; high utilization rate Prada 1913 HK Positive feedback of its new collections, increasing volumes in response to the new store concept offering a more intimate
13、customer experience and more emphasis on raising brands profile through social media. Sunny Optical 2382 HK Handset lens market share gain, GM expansion by product mix upgrade, vehicle lens in ADAS trend starts in 2018 XiabuXiabu 520 HK Medium term: new store opening, dual brand synergy, and new bus
14、inesses initiatives such as condiments and delivery. Near term: full year results in March ZTE 763 HK Leading 5G progress to accelerate the global market share expansion Larsen potential 1Q18 earnings beat Samsung Electronics 005930 KS Memory price hike to be announced by third party research. The p
15、lanned cancellation of existing treasury stocks Samsung Engineering 028050 KS Order intake from downstream hydrocarbon; US tax reform; normalization of earnings from 2018 AirAsia AIRA MK Near-term we see a potential 3% dividend yield from the recent SATS transaction, while a potential 25% special di
16、vidend remains in the works. Street upgrades are also likely to re-rate the stock Tenaga TNB MK Details of Regulatory Period 2 parameters, confirmation of fuel cost cash compensation, and potential for higher dividend payment Ayala Land ALI PM We expect Ayala Land to re-rate on the back of the governments push to invest more in infrastructure as ALI is the biggest landholder in the Philippines
