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1、North America Equity Research 03 January 2018Oil Services FTI, HAL Top PicksOil Services and EquipmentSean C Meakim, CFA AC(1-212) 622-6684 Bloomberg JPMA MEAKIM J.P. Morgan Securities LLCJustin W Hawkins(1-212) 622-5248 J.P. Morgan Securities LLCThomas Hotchkiss, CFA(1-212) 622-2201 J.P. Morgan Sec
2、urities LLCVibhav Zutshi(1-212) 622-9398 J.P. Morgan India Private LimitedSee page 23 for analyst certification and important disclosures, including non-US analyst disclosures. J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be
3、aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment We are highlighting an excerpt from our 2018 Outlook:A Watched Pot Never Boils: Less Bearish on Fundamentals,
4、 But Negative Revisions Cycle Still Looms report published December 13th. Large cap diversifieds benefit from improving returns and moats, though paths increasingly divergent. While the companies each offer some unique drivers, we ultimately think stock performance will remain tied to the earnings r
5、evision cycle. As such, hitting growth targets early in 2018 will be key to de- risking 2019 outlooks. Despite a potential bottom in international activity, we still believe NAM shale offers the best growth prospects in the near term, and HAL remains our preferred vehicle to play the relatively favo
6、rable completions trends in the NAM onshore market. SLBs purchase of WFTs pressure pumping assets should benefit the company (modestly) in the near term, while greater focus from E yes, its still too early. The offshore drillers have been one of the few subsectors with relative stock performance whi
7、ch didnt track the earnings revision cycle for 2018 estimates, largely reflecting the longer-term nature of the offshore cycle. Investors are likely to continue to overlook near-term earnings results in favor of the long-term return viability of companies incremental capital deployment, in our view.
8、 We believe risk for the stocks remains skewed to the downside as a Nash equilibrium continues to weigh on pricing, pushing out a recovery further than what the market currently anticipates. We acknowledge volatility could increase for this subsector given its status as an OTM option on deepwater, w
9、hich could periodically get a look from investors if Brent spikes and/or the backend of the curve starts to drift upward. RDC remains our lone Overweight given its more defensive jackup exposure, while ESV and NE (both rated UW) have the largest downside risk, in our view. Distributors to show devia
10、ting results (yet) again in 2018. While working capital liquidation helped drive steady growth in 2017, a moderating rig count and recent completions delays have kept investors on the sidelines for now. Midstream tailwinds and solid completions leverage should benefit the distributors, however we st
11、ill see room for yet another year of dispersion in results (and stock performance). We continue to prefer MRC given its more defensive mid/downstream exposures in what we expect to remain a fairly range-bound oil price environment, while lofty expectations for DNOW (JPMe 2019 revenue/EBITDA -8%/-13%
12、 v. consensus) leave forward estimates at risk. Top picks: FTI followed by HAL; among smids, we favor CLB, MRC and PUMP. We expect secular deflation to remain a key theme this cycle, and thus recommend companies with deflation enabling strategies/ offerings and moats which will allow them to capture
13、 some of the value they create. FTI is our top pick as the company is a key enabler via its integrated Subsea 2.0 offering. HALs NAM onshore exposure remains among the most favorable in our coverage given our expectation for solid completions activity along with continued frac market tightness in 20
14、18 (the most efficient pumpers paired with the most efficient operators are leading shale cost/boe lower this cycle). In smids, we prefer companies with idiosyncratic growth drivers and solid balance sheets (CLB, MRC, PUMP), each of which has its own deflationary angle.3North America Equity Research
15、 03 January 2018Sean C Meakim, CFA (1-212) 622-6684 Table of ContentsSector Outlooks.4Diversifieds: Emphasis on Returns and Moats as the OFS Deck Reshuffling Enters Next Phase.4 Capital Equipment: Long/Short-Cycle Trade Has Legs Offshore, While Onshore Risks More Binary.9 Small-Mid Cap Services: Stick
