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1、FAO COMMODITY AND TRADE POLICY RESEARCH WORKING PAPERNo. 1The Brazilian ethanol programme: impacts on world ethanol and sugar marketsTatsuji KoizumiCommodity Policy and Projections ServiceCommodities and Trade Division24 June 2003Table of ContentsDownload PDF (304 KB) FAO Commodity and Trade Policy
2、Research Working Papers are published by the Commodities and Trade Division of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). They are working documents and do not reflect the opinion of FAO or its member governments.Also available at http:/www.fao.org/es/ESC/Additional copies of
3、 this working paper can be obtained from Olwen.Gottsfao.orgThe designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations concerning the legal or d
4、evelopment status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.All rights reserved. Reproduction and dissemination of material in this information product for educational or other non-commercial purposes are authorized w
5、ithout any prior written permission from the copyright holders provided the source is fully acknowledged. Reproduction of material in this information product for resale or other commercial purposes is prohibited without the written permission of the copyright holders. Applications for such permissi
6、on should be addressed to the Chief, Publishing Management Service, Information Division, FAO, Viale delle Terme di Caracalla, 00100 Rome, Italy or by e-mail to copyrightfao.org. FAO 2003ABSTRACTThe sugar market in Brazil has a strong relationship with the ethanol market. The Brazilian government ha
7、s now abolished all the sugar market intervention measures except for the control on the ethanol-gasoline blend ratio. In this study, implications of a change in blend ratio to the sugar markets, particularly in its production resource use is investigated by applying a newly developed Ethanol-sugar
8、market projection model. The model simulation result shows a moderately sized impact on the world ethanol and sugar markets.RSUMLe march du sucre au Brsil est troitement li au march de lthanol. Le gouvernement brsilien a actuellement aboli toutes mesures dintervention sur le march du sucre, exceptio
9、n faite du contrle sur le ratio du mlange thanol-essence. Cette tude aborde les rpercussions dun changement du ratio de mlange sur les marchs du sucre, en particulier dans son utilisation comme ressource de production en appliquant un nouveau modle de prvision du march thanol-sucre. Le rsultat de la
10、 simulation indique que limpact sur les marchs mondiaux de lthanol et du sucre serait modr.RESUMENLos mercados del azcar y del etanol estn ntimamente relacionados en Brasil. El gobierno brasileo acaba de erradicar toda medida de intervencin al mercado azucarero, con excepcin del control que ejerce r
11、especto de las proporciones de la mezcla etanol-gasolina. El presente estudio analiza las consecuencias que tendra un cambio en la proporcin de mezcla en los mercados del azcar, en especial en lo que concierne a su uso como recurso productivo, mediante la aplicacin de un modelo de proyeccin reciente
12、mente desarrollado para el mercado azucarero y del etanol. La simulacin de este modelo arroja un impacto moderado sobre los mercados azucarero y del etanol.CONTENTS1. INTRODUCTION2. A BRIEF HISTORY OF THE BRAZILIAN ETHANOL PROGRAMME 3. WORLD ETHANOL-SUGAR MODEL 4. MARKET PERSPECTIVES 4.1 Assumptions
13、 4.2 World and Brazilian ethanol markets perspectives to the year 2010 4.3 World and Brazilian sugar markets perspectives to the year 2010 5. IMPACTS OF THE BLEND RATIO CONTROL 5.1 Scenario-imposition 5.2 Impacts on ethanol markets 5.3 Impacts on sugar markets 6. CONCLUSION REFERENCES ANNEX - MODEL
14、EQUATIONS FIGURES TABLESINTRODUCTIONThe sugar market is operated under an extensive range of governmental interventions. Its production, trade and even consumption levels are subject to governmental controls in many countries. Strong governmental policy which influences sugar market activities has b
15、een deepening since the middle of the 1970s. The world sugar market is now operated under governmental programmes in three broad categories: agriculture, energy and environment. Air pollution and ground water pollution issues in the United States are one examples that make links between environmenta
16、l and energy policies, while the energy policy decisions in Brazil and India are other examples that show links between agriculture and energy programmes.World sugar and ethanol markets operate by having strong mutual influences because most of the sugarcane goes to ethanol production. At present, less than half of the sugarcane (between 35.0 and 47.2 percent)1 goes to sugar production while the rest goes to the ethanol market. Among the major sugar
