《石油财富在世界经济中的新作用》由会员分享，可在线阅读，更多相关《石油财富在世界经济中的新作用（7页珍藏版）》请在金锄头文库上搜索。
1、McKinsey on FinanceBuilding a competitive finance function: An executive roundtable 1 By focusing on talent development, new roles for finance, and creative benchmarks, CFOs can deliver a competitive advantage to their companies.Deal making in 2007: Is the M International Monetary Fund; McKinsey Glo
2、bal Institute global capital fows database358 94200191127417169200089192509198199715135115649200522684291,199435200634463084841,3192004273238926359200222410850312924230 304237Exhibit 1 Impressive growthOil-exporting countries have become the worlds largest source of global capital flows, surpassing
3、Asia.Petrodollar foreign-investment assets, $ trillionCompound annual growth rate (CAGR), 200612, % Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2006; Global Insight; McKinsey Global Institute global capital fows database; McKinsey Global Institute analysisOil price $30Oil price $7013ScenariosOil p
4、rice $50 (base case) 10620124.831.055.886.934.8320114.680.812010ForecastEstimated4.540.5720094.350.3520084.090.1820063.403.914.455.055.676.306.9320073.770.070.350.180.070.560.811.05Exhibit 2 Three scenarios of growthEven if oil prices declined to $30 a barrel, foreign assets purchased with petrodoll
5、ars would grow at a robust average annual rate.16McKinsey on Finance Winter 2008That figure is larger than petrodollar sur- pluses throughout the 1990s.Without a doubt, this flood of oil money is creating new dynamics, and the rise of petrodollar investors feeds growing concern about their governmen
6、t connections and influence on markets. Since facts about these powerful new investors have been scarce, our research aims to ground the debate by providing new data and analysis.Where petrodollar assets are held By our estimate, investors from oil-exporting nations owned $3.4 trillion to $3.8 trill
7、ion in foreign financial assets at the end of 2006.3 That sum is invested overseas in a number of ways.Central banks Some petrodollars end up as resources held by central banks, which invest in foreign assets to stabilize currencies against balance- of-payment fluctuations. The primary investment ob
8、jective of central banks is stability, not the maximization of returns. They hold foreign reserves, mainly in the forms of cash and long-term government debtat present, largely US Treasury bills. Among the oil exporters, Saudi Arabia has the largest central-bank funds, with an estimated $250 billion
9、 in 2006.Sovereign wealth funds Most oil-exporting countries have set up state-owned investment funds, often called sovereign wealth funds, to invest oil surpluses in global financial assets. Unlike the reserves of central banks, these funds hold diversified portfolios that range across equities, fi
10、xed-income vehicles, real estate, bank deposits, and alternative investments, such as those provided by hedge funds and private-equity firms. Most sovereign wealth funds allocate their portfolios in a relatively traditional way across asset classes, often relying on external global asset managers. T
11、o date, the funds have rarely taken majority shares in foreign companies. The largest Estimated assets of major Middle East government investment companies, 2006, $ billion1Estimates of Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, and United Arab Emirates (UAE) foreign-reserve assets.2Figures do not sum to total, because o
12、f rounding.Source: Interviews; McKinsey Global Institute analysis40130150200Qatar Investment AuthorityKuwait Investment AuthorityAbu Dhabi Investment Authority (ADIA)Saudi Arabian Pension FundDubai International CapitalTotal sovereign wealth funds5008751,0001,32058751,2707001,020Other central-bank r
13、eserves1Foreign assets of sovereign wealth fundsSaudi Arabian Monetary Agency reservesTotal government-owned foreign assets225055Sovereign wealth fundsCentral banksExhibit 3 Sovereign wealthThe Abu Dhabi Investment Authority (ADIA) is the largest sovereign wealth fund among oil exporters.3 Determini
14、ng the true size of the oil exporters foreign assets is difficult because no comprehen- sive official figures exist. Our estimates are based on published data sources, our own research, and interviews with banking experts in the region.17The new role of oil wealth in the world economysovereign wealt
15、h fund among oil exporters, the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority (ADIA), reportedly has total assets of up to $875 billion (Exhibit 3).Government investment corporations Increasingly, oil exporters channel some of their wealth into smaller, more targeted funds, such as Dubai International Capital (DIC
16、) and Istithmar. These entities invest directly in domestic and foreign corporate assets, shunning the portfolio approach of the sovereign wealth funds. Many operate like private-equity firms, actively buying and managing companies, either alone or with consortiums of investors. Their investments include the Tussauds Group (owner of the London wax museum), purchased by DIC in 2006sub
