哈佛大学:人工智能与国家安全(英文)

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1、STUDY JULY 2017 Artificial Intelligence and National Security Greg Allen T aniel Chan A study on behalf of Dr. Jason Matheny, Director of the U.S. Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA) BELFER CENTER STUDYBelfer Center for Science and International Affairs Harvard Kennedy School 79

2、 JFK Street Cambridge, MA 02138 www.belfercenter.org Statements and views expressed in this report are solely those of the authors and do not imply endorsement by Harvard University, Harvard Kennedy School, the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, or IARPA. Design & Layout by Andrew

3、Facini Cover photo and opposite page 1: Adobe Stock, Illustration Copyright 2017 , President and Fellows of Harvard College Printed in the United States of AmericaSTUDY JULY 2017 Artificial Intelligence and National Security BELFER CENTER PAPER Greg Allen T aniel Chan A study on behalf of Dr. Jason

4、Matheny, Director of the U.S. Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA)Acknowledgments We would like to thank our advisors at Harvard Kennedy School and Harvard Business School, Dr. Joseph Nye Jr. and Dr. Gautam Mukunda, respectively, for their insight and dedication to the success of

5、 this project. We also thank Dr. Matthew Bunn and Dr. John Park, who provided timely feedback at multiple stages of this effort. We are grateful to the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, the Mossavar-Rahmani Center for Business and Government, and the Social Enterprise Initiative f

6、or their generous financial support, without which this research would not have been possible. We would also like to thank our client, Dr. Jason Matheny, who went out of his way to support this effort at every step. We thank the dozens of experts across government, industry, and academia who shared

7、their time and expertise in being interviewed. We would especially like to thank Matt Daniels at the Department of Defenses Office of Net Assessment. Matts brilliant insights can be found throughout this document. Finally, we would like to thank those individuals who took the time to review and prov

8、ide feedback on early drafts of this document, including Dr. Edward Felten, Dr. Richard Danzig, Dr. Lynne Parker, Ambassador Richard Norland, and Dr. Randy Bryant. Without their assistance, this document would have been far weaker. Any remaining mistakes are ours alone.Project Overview Partially aut

9、onomous and intelligent systems have been used in military technology since at least the Second World War, but advances in machine learning and Artificial Intelligence (AI) represent a turning point in the use of automation in warfare. Though the United States military and intelligence communities a

10、re planning for expanded use of AI across their portfolios, many of the most transformative applications of AI have not yet been addressed. In this piece, we propose three goals for developing future policy on AI and national security: preserving U.S. technological leadership, supporting peaceful an

11、d commercial use, and mitigating catastrophic risk. By look- ing at four prior cases of transformative military technologynuclear, aerospace, cyber, and biotechwe develop lessons learned and recommen- dations for national security policy toward AI. About the Authors Greg Allen is an Adjunct Fellow a

12、t the Center for A New American Security in Technology and National Security Program. Mr. Allen focuses on the intersection of Artificial Intelligence, cybersecurity, robotics, and national security. His writing and analysis has appeared in WIRED, Vox, and The Hill. Mr. Allen holds a joint MPP/MBA d

13、egree from the Harvard Kennedy School of Government and the Harvard Business School. Find him on twitter gregory_c_allen Taniel Chan was the Associate Director of Strategy and Analytics for the NYC Department of Education and a financial and economic analyst at Goldman Sachs. Mr. Chan also worked fo

14、r the White House National Economic Council on technology industry policy and workforce development. This fall, he will be join Bain & Company in London. Mr. Chan holds a joint MPP/MBA degree from the Harvard Kennedy School of Government and the Harvard Business School.Table of Contents Executive Summary . 1 Introduction & Project Approach .7 Part 1: The Transformative Potential of Artificial Intelligence . 12 Implications for Military Superiority . 12 Implications for Information Superiority.27 Implications for Economic Superiority .

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