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1、和“成功学清单”说再见Who doesnt love a “how to succeed” list？ Theyre fun to read and easy to share， which perhaps explains why there are so many of them. And the advice they give often sounds reasonable： The World Economic Forum published a post， in cooperation with Business Insider，1 listing 14 things succes
2、sful people do before breakfast. It includes items such as drinking water and making your bed. A list that Forbes published claims every successful person shares this quality： “They know when to stay and when to leave.” This list， from Entrepreneur， advises readers to stop seeing problems， and start
3、 seeing opportunities； this one， from Inc.， encourages readers to give up needing approval and fixating on their weaknesses.2 But as palatable3 as these lists are， they can do damage. There are several reasons why they may be not only useless but also potentially harmful to decision makers， managers
4、， and entrepreneurs. Evidence is anecdotal4. Most of the advice these lists contain is based on subjective interpretations of personal accounts， not on systematic， scientific analyses. Unless advice has been evaluated through evidence-based methods， you cant judge its validity. In addition， half-bak
5、ed analyses of anecdotal evidence often blur the lines between cause and consequence. Is someone successful because they avoided meetings， or are they able to avoid meetings because they are successful？ A host of behaviors that successful people supposedly sharenot caring what others think of them，
6、avoiding meetings， putting first things first， saying no to almost everythingmay be luxuries that only the extremely successful can enjoy， and only after they became successful in the eyes of others. Thus some behaviors are what success has brought them， and not the other way around. Research doesnt
7、 always transfer to different contexts. Some lists do draw heavily from research， but academic research is often very context-specific. As often happens with complex problems， the solutions and their applications are more nuanced than the forms theyre presented in and depend heavily on the context a
8、nd circumstances in which people find themselves. Failures are silent. In The Black Swan， Nassim Taleb recounts an anecdote Cicero told about the Greek poet Diagoras of Melos.5 When Diagoras was told that praying saves sailors from drowning， he wondered about those who prayed but drowned anyway. Pra
9、yer receives credit for saving sailors because all those who survived prayed. Yet this strategy is utterly useless if those who died also prayed， which is a fair assumption. If everybody prayed and only a few survived， then praying doesnt really matter. It just seems like it does to those who survived and those who can observe them.
