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1、2017. 11. 29 North Korea missile launch Response restrained to latest provocation ICBM test marks first missile test-fire in two months North Korea today at 3:17 am local time tested a new long-range missile, resuming military provocation after a lull following the test-firing of the Hwasong-12 (KN-
2、17) on Sep 15. The missile was launched from Pyeongsong (30km north of Pyongyang) using a transporter-erector-launcher. According to officials in South Korea, the US, and Japan, the missile, an ICBM, flew for around 950kms at an altitude of 4,500km and ended up within Japans exclusive economic zone.
3、 The North calls the new missile the Hwasong-15. The new missile has advanced features compared to the Hwasong-12 and Hwasong-14 models. When launched at an ordinary angle, the weapon is believed to be capable of striking Washington DC. Moreover, the Japanese government argues that the missile can c
4、arry multiple nuclear warheads. If so, this would show a significant technical advance in the Norths nuclear weapon system, as it means that the missile cannot be stopped by current missile defense systems. South Koreas Joint Chiefs of Staff, however, rebutted this possibility. Responses restrained
5、from neighboring countries and financial markets Despite todays unexpected launch, global financial markets have not shown any jitters. The response by US President Trump was subdued, stating the nations North Korea policy remains intact and that it is closely monitoring the situation. This suggests
6、 the US has an established North Korea policy and puts maximum pressure and economic sanctions ahead of military actions. The Japanese government responded calmly and based on facts, contrasting with its reaction in September after North Korea launched the Hwasong-12. At that time, the government id
7、entified the Hwasong-12 as an ICBM and issued J-alert even though the missile was declared an IRBM by the US. Some believe the overreaction was politically driven, with the election for the House of Representatives around the corner. Outlook and investment strategy North Koreas dilemma has been its
8、slower-than-expected pace of mastering a nuclear-tipped long-range missile. Although the nation declared that was nearing completion of an ICBM after conducting its sixth nuclear weapons test, global experts still believe the Norths missiles have imperfect re-entry ability, which is key to striking
9、the mainland US. Securing such a capability may play a critical role when it meets the US at the negotiation table. The North is striving to maximize its nuclear capabilities via repeated provocations despite the best efforts of related parties. Despite todays event, we still believe chances an extr
10、eme event happening on the Korean peninsula are low. Compared to August-September, neighboring nations (including the US) have increasingly shown their intention to resolve the North Korean nuclear issue in a reasonable and strategic manner. We recommend focusing on fundamentals (vs overreacting to
11、geopolitical risks) and predict that financial markets are unlikely to respond sensitively to scattered provocations by North Korea. (Continued on the next page) Samsung Strategy Spot SeungMin You Chief strategist 822 2020 7024 Strategy Spot 2017. 11. 29 2 KCNA issues significant statement North Ko
12、reas state news agency, the Korean Central News Agency, today at 12:30 pm local time said that the nation successfully launched a new type of ICBM and that it has completed the so-called state nuclear force. The following is our translation of part of the statement. The ICBM Hwasong-15 type weaponry
13、 system is an intercontinental ballistic rocket tipped with a super-large heavy warhead which is capable of striking the whole mainland of the US. This system has much greater advantages in its tactical and technological specifications and technical characteristics than does the Hwasong-14, which wa
14、s test-fired in July, and is the most powerful ICBM which meets the goal of the completion of the rocket weaponry system development set by the DPRK. After watching the successful launch of the Hwasong-15, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un declared with pride that we have now finally realized the grea
15、t historic cause of completing the state nuclear force. Buying time or triggering dialogue? With the North declaring the completion of the state nuclear force, attention should move to the nations next likely moves. Having shown advanced nuclear missile capability with the Hwasong-15, the North is l
16、ikely to try to buy time until it achieves re-entry capability. In other words, we expect the North for quite some time to seek to ease economic sanctions via negotiations and refrain from conducting additional missile tests. The North may also pursue the tactic of having full-blown negotiations with the US while stressing its nuclear status. As it is too premature to reach any a conclusion, any additional comments and actions by the North des
