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1、 Disclosures & Disclaimer This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications in the Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. Issuer of report: HSBC Bank plc View HSBC Global Research at: https:/ M i F I D I I R esea r c hI s y o u r a c c e s s
2、a g r e e d ?C ON T ACT u s t o d a y Palmer & Harvey goes into administration (Tesco accounted for 40% of its turnover). Booker set to gain even without merger Walmart closes price gap with Amazon. W prices now only 0.3% higher than Amazon on average Consumer confidence declines again in the UK. Sc
3、ale remains crucial for food retailers Tesco best placed Palmer & Harvey (P&H) goes into administration. UK wholesaler P&H has struggled for some time, with the CMA raising P&Hs survival as an issue should it lose the Tesco tobacco business. P&H has gone into administration even with Tescos tobacco
4、business. Booker is set to be a beneficiary of a major competitor exiting the market, through it likely winning the Tesco business and through winning further share. Consumer confidence falls again in UK. The index fell two points in November to -12. All five measures used to calculate the score fel
5、l in November, with the biggest drop occurring in the Major Purchase Index (6-point fall). This should be a worry for UK-centric retailers exposed to discretionary areas of demand. Two furniture retailers have entered administration in the last few weeks. Non-food sales are likely to come under incr
6、eased pressure. Walmart closes Amazon price gap. Prices on W are now only 0.3% higher than Amazon on average, according to a study. Walmart has invested over USD1bn in the last year to make its pricing more competitive, which is beginning to bear fruit: ecommerce sales in Q3 were 50% higher in net t
7、erms. Walmart is increasingly aggressive on price as it fights to regain its position. It has seen what has happened to price-based retailers that lose price position. The biggest shift in US retailing for some time is the step change in the Walmart food offer. Other key news items include: (see pag
8、e 3 for more details) The Co-op strikes deal with Costcutter (29-Nov-17) Sainsburys moves to fewer, longer-term fresh food suppliers (29-Nov-17) 28-store food retailer Booths looks for buyer (27-Nov-17) Amazon to open fulfilment centre near Sydney reports (29-Nov-17) Euro area Economic Sentiment Ind
9、icator rises again (30-Nov-17) Reports published this week (see page 10 for summaries): OVS SPA: Buy: c15% sell off unjustified given de-risked outlook (1-Dec-17) Fnac Darty: Buy: Strategy update & Amazon challenge (15pg report), 30-Nov-17) Pets At Home: Buy: Market concern looks misplaced (15pg rep
10、ort), 30-Nov-17 Ocado: Reduce: Casino deal raises expectations, 29-Nov-17 Casino: Buy: Acceleration in online grocery, 29-Nov-17 Inditex: Buy: c20% sell-off in shares offers buying opportunity (27-Nov-17) Next week: UK Retail sales (5-Dec-17); Steinhoff FY17 results (6-Dec-17) 1 December 2017 Food R
11、etail EQUITIES TEXTILES APPAREL & LUXURY GDS Europe David McCarthy* Head of Consumer Retail, Europe HSBC Bank plc +44 20 7992 1326 Andrew Porteous*, CFA Analyst, European Retail HSBC Bank plc +44 20 7992 4647 Emmanuelle Vigneron* Analyst HSBC Bank plc, Paris branch 33 1 56 52 43 19 Paul Rossingto
12、n* Analyst HSBC Bank plc +44 207 991 6734 Ruhell Amin* Analyst HSBC Bank plc +44 020 79920112 Pankaj Agarwala* Associate Bangalore * Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and is not registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations WoW 29: P Walmart gains on Amazon 2 EQUIT
13、IES TEXTILES APPAREL & LUXURY GDS1 December 2017 HSBC sector valuation HSBC European non-food retail sector valuation (calendarised) Ticker Rating Currency Current Mkt cap Target Upside / _EV/Sales (x)_ _EV/EBITDA (x)_ _PE (x)_ _FCF yield (%)_ _Dividend yield (%)_ Stock price (loc. cur.bn) price dow
14、nside 2017e 2018e 2017e 2018e 2017e 2018e 2017e 2018e 2017e 2018e ASOS ASOS.L Buy GBp 6,060 5.1 6,650 9.7% 2.3 1.9 35.8 26.3 72.4 56.2 -0.8 -0.4 0.0 0.0 Associated British Foods ABF.L Buy GBp 2,948 23.3 3,700 25.5% 1.5 1.4 12.1 11.1 22.7 20.9 3.1 2.8 1.4 1.5 B&M BMEB.L Buy GBp 382 3.8 460 20.5% 1.5
15、1.3 16.0 13.1 22.8 18.5 3.1 4.1 3.7 4.8 Brown N Group BWNG.L Buy GBp 282 0.8 385 36.5% 1.2 1.2 9.6 9.3 12.8 12.2 9.1 6.6 5.0 5.0 CECONOMY CECG.DE Buy EUR 11.01 3.6 13.00 18.1% 0.2 0.2 5.7 5.2 16.9 15.0 3.1 4.6 3.0 3.3 Dixons Carphone DC.L Hold GBp 159 1.8 175 10.1% 0.2 0.2 3.2 3.4 5.7 6.3 10.0 8.9 5.8 5.3 Dunelm DNLM.L Hold GBp 703 1.4 600 -14.6% 1.5 1.4 10.1 9.0 15.3 13.5 4.2 6.7 3.8 8.4 Fielmann FIEG.DE Hold EUR 73.29 6.2 69.00 -5.9% 4.2 4.0 19.7 18.4 35.2 33.0 2.7 2.8 2.6 2.8 GrandVision GVNV.AS Buy EUR 21.61 5.4 25.00 15.7% 1.8
