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1、Capital Flows to Emerging Markets Brighter Outlook June 5, 2017 Non-resident capital inflows to EMs are projected to increase by USD252 billion to USD970 billion in 2017 We look for a notable moderation in resident outflows from China this year, helped by RMB stability Mixed prospects for FDI, but w
2、e see some improvement in banking flows as well as solid portfolio flows South-South investment makes up some 5% of total cross-border investment in EMs vs 2% a decade ago Key risks to our forecast include more aggressive Fed tighteningincluding rate hikes and balance sheet runoffthan is being price
3、d in by markets. All else being equal, a USD500 billion decline in Fed Treasury holdings would be associated with a reduction of over USD50 billion in EM portfolio flows. Starting with this report, we have adopted the latest BPM6 presentation for the balance of payments. CLOUDS LIFTING The first mon
4、ths of 2017 have seen some potential head-winds for EM capital flows abate. In particular, efforts by Chinese policymakers to support growth and ensure RMB stability ahead of the autumn leadership transition should mean a less-volatile backdrop. At the same time, concerns about the impact of an “Ame
5、rica First” orientation of U.S. trade policy have subsidedat least for the time beingas U.S. policymakers focus on the domestic agenda including healthcare and tax reform. Assuming ongoing improvement in global and EM growth and a gradual, well-communicated path of Fed tightening through 2018, we ar
6、e now a bit more optimistic on EM capital flows. Total non-resident inflows to emerging markets should rise over 35% from 2016, reaching USD970 billion. Our first look at 2018 calls for non-resident inflows to top USD1 trillionwhich would be the best year since 2014. While the single biggest improve
7、ment we expect is a sharp decline in resident capital outflows from China, signs of a modest pickup in world trade and more stable commodity prices should underpin some improvement in banking flows and trade finance as well. South-South flows, particularly in cross-border banking flows and portfolio
8、 debt will make a growingif still modestcontribution (See Box 1). We look for solid non-resident inflows to EM portfolio debt, sup-ported both by still-attractive valuations and by rising de-mand from institutional investors (See Box 2). Notable vulnerabilities remain. Downside risks to portfolio fl
9、ows mainly relate to surprises in overall Fed policy, includ-ing balance sheet reduction (See Box 3). However, prospects for FDI are also mixed, and our economists highlight a range of domestic political and policy risks. But on the whole, 2017-18 prospects look better than they did back in January.
10、 Table of Contents Executive summary . 1 A brighter outlook for EM capital flows . 2 Macro backdrop: mostly sunny . 3 Box 1: South-South trade & investment flows . 5 Market backdrop: have we hit “Peak EM?” . 6 Box 2: EM portfolio flows by investor type . 8 Box 3: Fed balance sheet and EM portfolio f
11、lows . 9 China . 10 Asia-Six . 11 Emerging Europe . 12 Latin America . 13 GCC & Egypt . 14 Sub-Saharan Africa . 15 Tables and annexes . 16 Contributors . 20 Chart 1: Capital Flows to Emerging Markets Source: IIF. *In this chart, resident outflows include errors & omissions and net financial derivati
12、ves -2000-1500-1000-50005001000150020002000 2004 2008 2012 2016USD billionEM ex. China Non-Resident Capital InflowsChina Non-Resident Capital InflowsTotal EM Net Capital Flows China Resident Capital Outflows*EM ex. China Resident Capital Outflows*IIF Forecast Copyright 2017. The Institute of Intern
13、ational Finance, Inc. All rights reserved. Page 2 A BRIGHTER OUTLOOK FOR EM CAPITAL FLOWS Given a more positive start to the year, and dissipating fears of a negative external shock from US policy, we now estimate that total non-resident inflows to emerging markets will rise to USD970 billion this y
14、ear, from USD718 billion in 2016. Moreover, we look for inflows to break the USD1 trillion mark in 2018for the first time since 2014 (Table 1, Chart 1). This marks a significant upward revision from our cau-tious forecast in February in the wake of the US election. The firming in EM capital flows this year has been broadly driven by a strong rebound in equity and debt portfolio flows. As highlighted in our monthly Capital Flows Tracker, emerging markets a
