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1、 20 September 2017 Catherine L. Mann OECD Chief Economist OECD INTERIM ECONOMIC OUTLOOK Short-term momentum: Will it be sustained? www.oecd.org/economy/economicoutlook.htm ECOSCOPE blog: Key messages 2 The short-term momentum has become more broad-based Growth performance has improved more than exp
2、ected in the euro area The upturn is synchronised across major economies Policy support in a number of economies has boosted the first half of 2017 But strong and sustained medium-term growth is far from secured More robust private investment is needed for a self-sustained recovery Inflation remains
3、 subdued and wages have not picked up Stronger future growth in emerging market economies will depend on deeper reform Policy must not be complacent: fiscal and structural initiatives need to be used Rebalance from monetary to fiscal and structural support for growth and wages Monetary policy needs
4、to balance being supportive, yet also managing financial risks Use fiscal space, with better tax and spending policies to achieve inclusive growth Step up structural reform effort to boost productivity, wages and skills A synchronised short-term global upturn 3 The recovery is broad-based GDP growth
5、 of selected countries Global GDP growth Contributions by regions Note: Selected countries are OECD countries, Argentina, Brazil, China, Colombia, Costa Rica, India, Indonesia, Lithuania, Russia and South Africa. Source: OECD Economic Outlook database. Industrial production and trade growth Quarterl
6、y growth, volumes 4 Industrial production and trade picked up, the rebound in the tech cycle has accelerated Notes: Trade growth based on goods and services trade volumes. The dotted line shows June 2017 forecasts. Semi-conductor billings in nominal USD. Source: OECD Economic Outlook database; World
7、 Semi-Conductor Statistics; and OECD calculations. IT cycle Year-on-year changes, 3-month moving average 2017 OECD Interim Economic Outlook projections 5 Real GDP growth Year-on-year, % Note: Difference in percentage points based on rounded figures. 1. Fiscal years starting in April. 2016I nt e r i
8、m proj e c t i on sD i f f e r e nc e f r om J un e E c on om i c O ut l oo kI nt e r i m proj e c t i on sD i f f e r e nc e f r om J un e E c on om i c O ut l oo kW o r l d 3 . 1 3 . 5 0 . 0 3 . 7 0 . 1U n i te d Sta te s 1 . 5 2 . 1 0 . 0 2 . 4 0 . 0Eu r o a r e a 1 . 8 2 . 1 0 . 3 1 . 9 0 . 1G e
9、 r m a n y 1 . 9 2 . 2 0 . 2 2 . 1 0 . 1F r a n c e 1 . 1 1 . 7 0 . 4 1 . 6 0 . 1It a ly 1 . 0 1 . 4 0 . 4 1 . 2 0 . 4J a p a n 1 . 0 1 . 6 0 . 2 1 . 2 0 . 2C a n a d a 1 . 5 3 . 2 0 . 4 2 . 3 0 . 0U n i te d K i n g d o m 1 . 8 1 . 6 0 . 0 1 . 0 0 . 0C h i n a 6 . 7 6 . 8 0 . 2 6 . 6 0 . 2I n d i a
10、17 . 1 6 . 7 -0 . 6 7 . 2 -0 . 5B r a z i l -3 . 6 0 . 6 -0 . 1 1 . 6 0 . 0R u s s i a -0 . 2 2 . 0 0 . 6 2 . 1 0 . 5G 2 0 3 . 2 3 . 7 0 . 1 3 . 8 0 . 02017 2018STRONG AND SUSTAINED MEDIUM-TERM GROWTH IS FAR FROM SECURED 6 7 There is substantial need for further investment to sustain momentum A weak
11、 investment recovery OECD countries Notes: LHS: Current recovery since 2008Q1 including forecasts in the dotted line. Previous 3 recoveries pre-recession peak in 1973Q4, 1980Q1 and 1990Q3. Investment is real total gross fixed capital formation. RHS: Long-term needs are estimated following methodolog
12、y of Lewis et al. (2014). Source: OECD Economic Outlook database; and OECD calculations. Investment shortfalls by country Non-residential investment, % of potential GDP 8 Structural weaknesses hold back investment Capital sunk in zombie firms Share of total capital stock, 2013 Notes: LHS: Firms aged
13、 10 years or more and with profits not covering interest payments over three consecutive years. The sample excludes firms that are larger than 100 times the 99th percentile of the size distribution in terms of capital stock or number of employees. RHS: Product market shock: 16% reduction in OECD ind
14、ex of regulation in energy, transport and communications over 5 years, equivalent to the average pace of reduction among 15 OECD countries over 1993-2013. Reduction in the global uncertainty index: two-standard-deviation (26%) reduction. Increase in foreign or domestic demand: 1% increase. Source: A
15、dalet McGowan, Andrews and Millot (2017), “The Walking Dead? Zombie Firms and Productivity Performance in OECD Countries”, OECD Economics Department working paper; and OECD calculations. Estimated impact of shocks on investment Percentage change after 5 years 9 Faster trade growth is needed to achie
16、ve stronger productivity gains Global trade intensity Ratio of global trade growth to global GDP growth Note: Scenario in which OECD trade openness (exports plus imports as a share of GDP at market exchange rates) increases at the average rate that prevailed over 1986-2007 from 2017 onwards. Source: OECD Economic Outlook database; Haugh et al. (2016), “Cardiac Arrest or Dizzy Spell: Why is Worl
