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1、 摘 要 改革开放三十多年来，我国经济实力不断增强，对外经贸联系密切，经济总量和经贸总额仅次于美国，位居世界第二。但是，相比于我国雄厚的经济实力，人民币的国际地位相对较低，这与我国经济大国的身份不匹配。同时，次贷危机后，三大国际货币美元、欧元、日元出现不同程度的信心危机，国际货币体系改革的呼声高涨。因此，人民币国际化不仅是我国深化改革开放的要求，也是当前国际经济背景下的必然选择。同时，人民币国际化包含巨大收益，其长远利益超过近期利益，是一项重大战略举措，对提升我国经济的国际竞争力、提高国际话语权都具有重要意义。 本文从国际比较的角度，采用了内外因分析法、历史与逻辑相统一分析法、整体性分析与结构
2、性分析相结合、国际比较分析法、战略分析法、定量分析与定性分析相结合的方法，分析人民币的现状，将人民币国际化进程同当前的三大国际货币进行比较，进而分析人民币所处的国际化阶段，总结历史经验教训，指出人民币国际化中将会遇到的风险和障碍，提出人民币国际化应该采取的路径和举措。 本文共分为六章。第一章绪论，介绍了本文研究的理论和现实意义、研究方法、创新点和研究难点；第二章货币国际化的相关理论与观点综述，分别介绍了货币国际化的相关理论、货币国际化的相关问题的观点综述、人民币国际化的相关问题的观点综述；第三章人民币国际化的现实背景，介绍了人民币国际化的国内经济背景、国际经济背景，并比较了人民币国际化的背景与
3、美元、欧元、日元国际化背景的异同；第四章货币国际化的条件与人民币国际化进程的现状分析，介绍了货币国际化应具备的基本条件、分析了人民币国际化进程的现状、并把人民币国际化进程的现状同三大国际货币进行了对比分析；第五章人民币国际化的收益与风险分析，分析了人民币国际化的收益（包括直接收益和间接收益）、人民币国际化的风险（既有市场风险也有非市场性风险）、并对美国、欧盟和日本在应对货币国际化风险方面的经验教训进行总结，为我国提供借鉴；第六章人民币国际化的路径选择，介绍了人民币国际化的两种模式：一种是渐进模式，一种是战略导向模式，这两种模式是相互独立又相互联系的统一体，具有相互包容性，是我国在人民币国际化过
4、程中必须坚持的两种手段。 通过分析，本文认为，当前，我国已经处于人民币国际化的初期阶段，未来市场对人民币的需求也将不断增加。但是我国依然面临人民币国际化的诸多瓶颈，比如：人民币境外流通的范围狭窄、金融业的国际竞争力不强、银行机构的 海外分支机构较少、我国资本账户未完全开放、人民币离岸金融市场的建设仍在摸索阶段等。这些因素严重制约着未来人民币国际化的程度，需要我国加以完善。通过对我国具体国情的分析和国外经验教训的借鉴，本文认为人民币国际化可以通过两种模式进行：一种是渐进模式，基本内容是“两个三步走”，即按照我国市场的发育程度，先易后难地实现人民币在职能上的结算货币、投资货币和储备货币，以及由近及
5、远地实现人民币在地域上的周边化、区域化和国际化。另一种是战略导向模式，该模式是政府通过政策制定、制度设计改善人民币国际化的外部环境、引导市场主体朝向战略目标行动。这两种模式在本质上是统一的，具有相互包容性，二者协同发展、缺一不可。在人民币国际化的进程中，我国应该同时采用这两种模式，充分发挥政府和市场两者的积极性，共同促进人民币国际化目标的实现。 关键词：人民币国际化 收益与风险 国际比较 路径选择 Abstract In recent years, our countrys economy scale is improving quickly, and foreign trade associ
6、ation with other countries is becoming closer and closer. And now our countrys GDP and total volume of import and export is the second largest in the world, just second only to USAs. But RMB international status is low, and cant match for the economy scale. After Subprime Crisis, the three internati
7、onal currencies-dollar, euro, yen appear different of confidence crisis, and international monetary system reforming is becoming urgently. Therefore, the RMB internationalization is not only the need of Chinas deepening reform and opening up, but also the inevitable choice under the current world ec
8、onomy background. At the same time, the RMB internationalization has huge profit. And its long-term profit is greater than short-term. So its an important strategic to promote our country economy developing, improve the international competitiveness and enhance international discourse right. In the
9、perspective of international comparisons, by using the research methods such as the internal and external factors analysis, the unity of history and logic analysis, the overall and structural analysis, international comparative analysis, strategic analysis, quantitative and qualitative analysis, thi
10、s paper analyses the current situation of RMB, and compares the internationalization of RMB with the three international currencies, and summaries the history experience, and points out that RMB internationalization will encounter risks and obstacles, our country should takes the suitable path and m
11、easures. This paper includes six chapters. The first chapter is introduction, this chapter introduces the theory and the practical significance, research methods, innovation and research difficulties; The second chapter is the overview of internationalization of currency theories and the viewpoints,
12、 and introduces the related theories of currency internationalization and related problems of currency internationalization, the overview of RMB internationalization and related viewpoints; The third chapter is the realistic background of RMB internationalization, and introduces the domestic economi
13、c background of the RMB internationalization, the background of international economy, and the comparison of the internationalization backgrounds in RMB, dollar, euro and yen; The fourth chapter is currency internationalization conditions and the analysis of RMB internationalization present situatio
14、n, and introduces that currency internationalization should have the basic conditions, analyzes the current situation of RMB, and compares RMB with three major international currencies; The fifth chapter is the profits and the risks of RMB internationalization, analyses the profits of RMB internatio
15、nalization (including direct benefits and indirect benefits) and the risks of RMB internationalization (including market risks and non-market risks), and summaries the experiences and lessons of the United States, the European Union and Japan in the process of currency internationalization, for prov
16、iding our country references; The sixth chapter is RMB internationalization path choice. It introduces two models: one is the progressive model, the other is a strategy guide model, the two models are mutually independent and mutually interrelated, having mutually inclusive. RMB internationalization process must adhere to the two kinds of methods. Through the analysis of this paper, we believe that, at present, our country has been in the initia
