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1、9 startup ideas that were ahead of their time生不逢时：9 个因太超前而夭折的创新Venture investors are fond of their truisms, to the point that the startup world is riddled with clichs. But few cut deeper than the one about timing: “The only thing worse than being wrong is being early.” Its impossible to count the nu
2、mber of startups which failed because the world wasnt ready for them yet. Since the dotcom bubble, many of the eras biggest flops have been revived in different forms to become viable businesses.风险投资家非常爱说一些经验之谈，甚至整个创业界都流行着一些金科玉律。最经典的莫过于一个关于创业时机的经验之谈：“唯一比犯错更严重的就是过于超前。”因创业理念太超前而失败的例子简直数不胜数。不过自从“.com”泡
3、沫破裂后，许多当年失败得一塌糊涂的点子，又以其它形式重新焕发了青春，成为生机勃勃的企业。Todays revivals have a few key things going for them this time around. For starters, its a matter of simple numbers: In 2000, only 43% of Americans were using the Internet. Today, 86% of the country is online and more than half of the population carries th
4、e Internet around in their pocket. The addressable audience for a Web startup is much larger.这些创业理念之所以成功复苏，也因为它们现在具备了一些关键的要素。首先来了解一串简单的数字：2000 年，美国只有 43%的人使用互联网。如今美国网民人数已占总人口的 86%，移动互联网用户更是达到美国总人口的一半以上。也就是说，网络创业公司的受众群体要比以往大得多。Further, logistics networks from the likes of FedEx FDX -0.54% and UPS UPS
5、 -0.05% are more developed, more efficient, and more cost-effective than they were in the late 1990s. Lastly, thanks to cloud computing and open source software, the cost of starting up has shrunk from millions of dollars to hundreds of thousands or less. This lowers the stakes for starting a busine
6、ss, which means early-stage failures arent costing investors millions.另外，联邦快递和 UPS 等物流网络也比 90 年代末更发达、更高效、价格更低。最后，随着云计算和开源软件的兴起，网络创业的成本从几百万美元减少到几千美元甚至更低。这大大降低了创业的风险，也就意味着早期阶段的创业失败不会导致投资人损失数百万美金。Below, several good ideas which were simply ahead of their time.以下是一些当年因过于超前而失败的例子。Same-day delivery当日送达Ube
7、r has turned smartphones into remote controls for life. Press a button and just about anything you want will show upbooze, groceries, manicures, flowers, even weed. Amazon AMZN 0.87% and Google GOOG -1.23% now offer same-day delivery, with countless startupincluding Uberhot on their heels.Uber 已经把智能
8、手机变成了生活的遥控器。只要按个按钮，你想要的几乎任何东西都可以送到家门比如酒水、美甲、鲜花乃至大麻。亚马逊和谷歌现在也提供了当日送达服务，包括 Uber 在内的不计其数的创业公司紧随其后。Same-day delivery was the premise of famous Web 1.0 blow-ups K and Webvan. K lost hundreds of millions in value in the dotcom crash; Webvan lost over a billion in investor money. They failed because they d
9、idnt make money on their services. Today, Ks co-founder has revived the idea with MaxD which has a small customer base of under 100,000, but has grown slowly and steadily since 2005 on its own profits, supporting a staff of 130. The recent influx of new startups offering anything you want on-demand
10、proves that the idea wasnt bad, but the timing was.最早提供同日送达服务的，是 Web 1.0 时代的知名网站 K 和Webvan。但 K 在“.com” 泡沫破裂时损失了数亿美元，Webvan更是让投资人的 10 多亿美金打了水漂。失败的原因在于，他们的服务不赚钱。K 的联合创始人如今又通过 MaxD 让这个理念起死回生，虽然 MaxDelivery 的用户群只有不到 10 万人，但从 2005 年至今，它却能依赖自身盈利实现缓慢而稳定的增长，并且能养活 130 名员工。如今有这么多创业公司在做当日送达服务，足以证明这个点子并不坏，只是当时时
11、机未到。Pet food delivery宠物食品快递The market for “pet parents,” who treat their dogs as well as children is a massive one, and that has only grown since the days of the dotcom bubble. But P, the most famous dotcom-era blow-up, was plagued by a simple logistical issue: In 1999, it didnt make financial sense
12、 to ship giant bags of pet food across the country.把自家的萌宠当亲人和孩子一样照顾的“狗奴”、“猫奴”大有人在。而且宠物一族的规模在“.com” 时代之后仍在继续加大。P 是“.com”时代一家非常出名的高估值网站，只可惜被一个简单的物流问题所累：1999 年的时候，对于大部分消费者来说，从网上隔着大半个国家买狗粮在经济上并不划算。Today, several companies have taken advantage of improvements from an improved national delivery network an
13、d revived this idea. P expected $50 million in sales in 2014 and Bark&Co, a dog supply delivery service, claims it is a $100 million-per-year business. Even Petco has launched a repeat delivery service.如今随着全国性的快递网络的发展，好几家公司又拾起了宠物食品快递的生意。P 在 2014 年的营收预计达到 5000 万美元以上。一家名叫Bark&Co 的狗粮公司声称，它每年的业务额达到了 1 亿
14、美元。就连 Petco 公司也推出了一项重复快递服务。Smartwatches智能手表The jury is still out on whether smartwatches will become as big a category as iPods or tablets, but theyve certainly moved beyond novelty status. Analysts predict Apple AAPL -0.82% will sell at least 30 million Apple Watches when it goes on sale in April.智
15、能手表究竟能否像 iPod 或平板电脑一样，成为一种独领风骚的电子产品，现在依然没有定论，但它显然已经不像过去那样小众。据分析师预测，等到苹果手表四月上市后，它的销量至少将达到 3000 万部。But Apples smartwatch predecessors, Pebble and Samsung, werent first to the smartwatch game. Microsoft MSFT -0.58% debuted a smartwatch prototype in 2004. Impressively, it preceded the smartphone. Accord
16、ing to Techspot, these Microsoft smartwatches used FM radio signals to bring news, weather, and other information into the watches, which were made by Suunto, Fossil, Tissot, and Swatch. Somehow, it never caught on.Pebble 和三星此前也推出了各自的智能手表，但它们其实并非智能手表的先驱。微软早在 2004 年就发布了智能手表的原型产品，要知道那时候连智能手机都尚未问世。据 Techspot 报道，微软智能手表可以利用 FM 收音机信号将新闻、天气和其它信息带入手表中当然微软的着力点只是在它的电
