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1、Hedging & Futures,Today We will return to Capital Budgeting & Financing. We will discuss how to reduce risk. Topics How to eliminate risk in capital budgeting. (i.e. variable costs) How to eliminate risk in financing (i.e. interest rate fluctuations) HOW? By Hedging & Futures Contracts,Ex - Cereal P
2、roduction,Ex - Kellogg produces cereal. A major component and cost factor is sugar. Forecasted income & sales volume is set by using a fixed selling price. Changes in cost can impact these forecasts. To fix your sugar costs, you would ideally like to purchase all your sugar today, since you like tod
3、ays price, and made your forecasts based on it. But, you can not. You can, however, sign a contract to purchase sugar at various points in the future for a price negotiated today. This contract is called a “Forward Contract.” This technique of managing your sugar costs is called “Hedging.”,Type of C
4、ontracts,1- Spot Contract - A K for immediate sale & delivery of an asset. 2- Forward Contract - A K between two people for the delivery of an asset at a negotiated price on a set date in the future. 3- Futures Contract - A K similar to a forward contract, except there is an intermediary that create
5、s a standardized contract. Thus, the two parties do not have to negotiate the terms of the contract. The intermediary is the Commodity Clearing Corp (CCC). The CCC guarantees all trades & “provides” a secondary market for the speculation of Futures.,Types of Futures,Commodity Futures -Sugar-Corn-OJ
6、-Wheat-Soy beans-Pork bellies Financial Futures -Tbills-Yen-GNMA -Stocks-Eurodollars Index Futures -S&P 500-Value Line Index -Vanguard Index,Futures Contract Concepts,Not an actual sale Always a winner & a loser (unlike stocks) K are “settled” every day. (Marked to Market) Hedge - K used to eliminat
7、e risk by locking in prices Speculation - K used to gamble Margin - not a sale - post partial amount Hog K = 30,000 lbs Tbill K = $1.0 mil Value line Index K = $index x 500,Ex - Settlement & Speculate,You are speculating in Hog Futures. You think that the Spot Price of hogs will rise in the future.
8、Thus, you go Long on 10 Hog Futures. If the price drops .17 cents per pound ($.0017) what is total change in your position?,30,000 lbs x $.0017 loss x 10 Ks = $510.00 loss,Since you must settle your account every day, you must give your broker $510.00,50.63,50.80,-$510,cents per lbs,You are an Illin
9、ois farmer. You planted 100 acres of winter wheat this week, and plan on harvesting 5,000 bushels in March. If todays wheat price is $1.56 per bushel, and you would like to lock in that price, what would you do? Since you are long in Wheat, you will need to go short on March wheat. Since 1 K = 5,000
10、 bushels, you should short one contract and close your position in March.,Ex - Commodity Hedge,Ex - Commodity Hedgereal world,In June, farmer John Smith expects to harvest 10,000 bushels of corn during the month of August. In June, the September corn futures are selling for $2.94 per bushel (1K = 5,
11、000 bushels). Farmer Smith wishes to lock in this price. Show the transactions if the Sept spot price drops to $2.80.,Revenue from Crop: 10,000 x 2.8028,000 June: Short 2K 2.94 = 29,400 Sept: Long 2K 2.80 = 28,000 . Gain on Position- 1,400 Total Revenue $ 29,400,Ex - Commodity Hedgereal world,In Jun
12、e, farmer John Smith expects to harvest 10,000 bushels of corn during the month of August. In June, the September corn futures are selling for $2.94 per bushel (1K = 5,000 bushels). Farmer Smith wishes to lock in this price. Show the transactions if the Sept spot price rises to $3.05.,Revenue from C
13、rop: 10,000 x 3.0530,500 June: Short 2K 2.94 = 29,400 Sept: Long 2K 3.05 = 30,500 . Loss on Position- ( 1,100 ) Total Revenue $ 29,400,Ex - Commodity Speculationreal world,Nov: Short 3 May K (.4400 x 38,000 x 3 ) = + 50,160 Feb: Long 3 May K (.4850 x 38,000 x 3 ) = - 55,290 Loss of 10.23 % = - 5,130
14、,You have lived in NYC your whole life and are independently wealthy. You think you know everything there is to know abot pork bellies (uncurred bacon) because your butler fixes it for you every morning. Because you have decided to go on a diet, you think the price will drop over the next few months
15、. On the CME, each PB K is 38,000 lbs. Today, you decide to short three May Ks 44.00 cents per lbs. In Feb, the price rises to 48.5 cents and you decide to close your position. What is your gain/loss?,Margin,The amount (percentage) of a Futures Contract Value that must be on deposit with a broker. S
16、ince a Futures Contract is not an actual sale, you need only pay a fraction of the asset value to open a position = margin. CME margin requirements are 15% Thus, you can control $100,000 of assets with only $15,000.,Ex - Commodity Speculationreal world - with margin,Nov: Short 3 May K (.4400 x 38,000 x 3 ) = + 50,160 Feb: Long 3 May K (.4850 x 38,000 x 3 ) = - 55,290 Loss = - 5,130 Loss 5130 5130 Margin 50160 x.15 7524,You have lived in NYC your whole life and are independently wealthy. You thin
