《[精选]工程项目风险管理与保险概述》由会员分享，可在线阅读，更多相关《[精选]工程项目风险管理与保险概述（37页珍藏版）》请在金锄头文库上搜索。
1、The Tools and Methodologies of Risk Analysis,工程项目风险管理与保险,双语课,Contents of Risk Analysis,Analysis of risk events evolution; Risk Evaluation for : occurring probability of risk events, varied possible risk consequences, and their conditional probabilities given original event occurring.,Analysis of ris
2、k event evolution,Fault Tree Analysis (FTA, 故障树) Event Tree Analysis（ETA，事件树）,What is a fault tree ？,Is a special kind of inverted tree logic causality diagram, it USES event symbols, transfer of logic gate signs and symbols to describe a cause-and-effect relationship between various events in the s
3、ystem. Logic gate input output events because, logic gate output is the input events fruit.,The procedure of fault tree analysis,1. Be familiar with the system 2. Investigate accidents 3. Determine the top event 4. Determine the target value 5. Reasons for investigation 6. Draw the fault tree,The pr
4、ocedure of fault tree analysis,7.Analysis 8. The accident probability 9. Comparing 10.Analysis,Supervision of project failure,From the owners risk,From the contractors risk,From the risk of supervision,X1,X2,X6,X3,X4,X5,X7,X11,X10,X8,X9,A Case: Typical risk,X1: feasibility study report lack of serio
5、usness X2: macro management, investment deficiency The X3: blind intervention, deprived of the rights of the engineering consultant X4: dont respect contract, no respect for the rights and interests of the contractor X5: project payment does not reach the designated position or settlement in a timel
6、y manner,From the owners risk,X6: contractor bidding not honest Bidders X7: lack of business ethics The under-funded by X8: contractors X9: contractor quality is too low,From the contractors risk,Event tree analysis case,The water system of the accident event tree analysis,Probability Methods,Using
7、the existing data analysis risk event probability distribution Theory of probability distribution is used to determine the probability of risk events The probability of risk events using subjective probability analysis Analogy is used to derive the probability of risk events,Using the existing data
8、analysis risk event probability distribution,Case: the emergence of construction period delay risk probability calculation A construction company in the past to complete 72 construction projects, due to various reasons, some part of the project has delayed time limit for a project. Dragged project t
9、ime limit for a project, arrange them get situation as shown in the table. The time limit for a project in the table are the relative value of delay time; The number of frequency for the project.,The construction period delay data statistics,Time limit for a project delay distribution experience,-30
10、 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 %,Frequency (probability),0.2083,Estimate the construction period delay event probability,For example, a company planned construction period of 16 months, if you want to know the probability of construction period delay 3 months, shall be calculated on the foll
11、owing steps ： 3/16100%=18.8% From the table or figure can check the construction period delay is the probability that 3 months 5.56%。,Theory of probability distribution is used to determine the probability of risk events,Case study: Quality data are volatile, the factor is caused by many factors, an
12、d under the condition of normal production, the role of each factor is not obvious, and there is no one factor plays a leading role. So the fluctuations Normal distribution. In the construction of water conservancy projects, many hydrology workers study of river flood peak flow of randomness, found
13、that most of the rivers obeyed P - type distribution.,The probability of risk events using subjective probability analysis,Case study: A project is divided into five standard, itemized bid, a bidder intends to participate in one of the bid, assume that a bidder the winning probability is different f
14、or each target, namely not the bidding risk is different. Bidders please four expert of bidding risk analysis, evaluation for which standard can bid more, less risky or miss the mark. Experts on the risk of not winning from small to large, the result of the discharge sequence as shown in table tende
15、ring decision makers for the experts trust degree by coefficient a, were 0.25, 0.28, 0.22, 0.25, and four Numbers and 1.,Experts to the evaluation order of different projects,：10.25+20.22+30.28+40.25=2.53 ：10.22+20.28+20.25+40.25=2.28 ： 10.28+10.25+20.25+30.22=1.69 ： 40.22+50.25+50.28+50.25=4.78 ： 3
16、0.25+30.25+40.28+50.22=3.72,Different targets cannot be the winning probability calculation ：,The total score ：2.53+2.28+1.69+4.78+3.72=15 Cant the winning probability, respectively ： 2.53/15=0.17 2.28/15=0.15 1.69/15=0.11 4.78/15=0.32 3.72/15=0.25,Conclusion: For most at risk when the fourth standard, for the third when the risk is minimal,Analogy method to calculate the risk probability, hydrologic analogy method,Case study: To build A port, to compute the probability of A once-in-a-century st
