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1、 河北省人口和用地协调发展探究 摘 要随着城市化进程的推进，城市人口规模和用地规模的扩展是城市发展的必然趋势。目前我国城市化进入快速发展阶段，城市规模扩展迅速，随着城市规模的不断扩展，一些问题不断凸显：城市无序扩展，土地配置不合理，城市规划系统性、科学性不强，农用地面积大幅减少等等，这就需要判断怎样的城市规模才能使城市人口和用地达到协调状态，使城市发展达到最优效果。本文以河北省为例，对河北省 33 个市的城市规模进行研究，用分形理论中的位序-规模法则分别分析河北省人口和用地规模分布的演变规律，进而用偏移份额模型并结合城市用地分类与规划建设用地标准（GB50137-2011）分析各类城市建设用地
2、的结构演化规律和合理发展方向，最后通过异速生长定律和城市用地扩展系数分析城市人口和用地之间的协调关系，以此分析的结果为依据，对河北省城市人口和用地的发展提出建议。得出了如下结论：（1）全省城市体系发育不够健全，首位度较低，2012 年全省 2 城市指数为 1.2,4 城市指数和 11 城市指数仅为 0.5,远小于其合理值 1.规模序列结构正处于集中向分散过渡的发展时期，2012 年，人口规模 q 值为 0.81,用地规模 q 值则为 0.79,省内首位城市发展不足，大城市的规模比起全国其他省份来说远远不够，其影响力距离理想状态仍有很大差距；中小城市是推进全省城市化进程的主要力量。总体而言，全省
3、尚未形成理想的规模序列结构，还处于发展的中间阶段。（2）城市各用地类型中，道路广场用地和绿地为增长性结构，工业用地仓储用地为主要衰减性结构；从空间分布看，迁安市、武安市等一批经济发展较好的县级市的补给效应比较强，其他城市的补给效应和挤出效应互有强弱。结合标准中各城市各类用地的超标状况，居住用地和公共管理与公共服务用地的超标城市较多，尤其县级市的居住用地占比较高。全省除承德市等少数几个城市外，绿地的占地比例都不达标。（3）河北省大部分城市用地增长速度高于人口增长速度，纵向来看近几年尤为显着，异速生长系数从 2000 年的 0.75（幂函数）和 0.66（线性函数），增加到 2012年的 0.87
4、（幂函数）和 1.00（线性函数），从负异速变为正异速。横向上近 2/3 的城市用地扩展系数超过合理值，地级市比县级市的扩展系数偏高；并且除少数几个城市外，河北省整体城市人口密度偏低，土地利用效率有待提高。关键词：城市规模；人口；土地；人地关系；河北省AbstractWith the advance of urbanization, the expansion of urban population size and land size is theinevitable trend of urban development. At present, China has entered the
5、stage of rapid developmentof urbanization, the city scale expanded rapidly, with the expanding of urban scale,Some questionscontinuously emerge: Urban sprawl, land configuration unreasonable, systematic and scientific is notstrong in urban planning, agricultural land area is significantly reduced, e
6、tc. which need to decidewhat city size can make the urban population and land reach coordination state and the urbandevelopment achieve optimal results.Taking hebei province as an example, the rank-size rule is used to analyze the development lawsof urban population and urban land of 33 cities in He
7、bei province, and then the shift-share model andcombined with “standard of urban land classification and planning construction land” （GB50137-2011）are adopted to analyze the evolution law and the development direction of all kinds of urbanconstruction land structure, finally through the allometric g
8、rowth law and and urban land expansionparameters to analysis the coordinate relationship between urban population and land., the results ofthis analysis as the basis, puts forward suggestions for the development of the urban population andland in hebei province. The following conclusions are drawn:（
9、1） Hebei urban system is not perfect and the primacy ratios is low, the two cities index in 2012was 1.2,the four city index and eleven city index was only 0.5, far less than its fair value 1. Scalesequence structure is in a development period of transition from concentration to dispersion , in 2012,
10、q for the population size is 0.81 , q for the land size was 0.79, the first city development is insufficientin province, compared to other provinces , the size of the large cities is far from enough, its influenceis still far from the ideal state; Small and medium-sized cities is the main power in t
11、he urbanizationprocess in the province. Overall, the province has not yet formed an ideal scale sequence structure,still in the middle stage of development.（2） Each land use types , road square land and green land showed a significant supply effect,industrial land and storage land had a structure of
12、 damping form; from the spatial distribution, a groupof county which economic develop better supply effect is stronger,such as Wuan, the supply effectand crowding-out effect are strong with weak in other cities. Combined with the conditions exceeded“standards” for all types of land in various cities
13、 ,there are many cities which land size for residentialand public management and public service are beyond the “standard”,especially residential land ofcounty-level cities is higher. The proportion of green land is not is not up to standard in addition to thefew cities,like Chengde outside.（3） The l
14、and expansion rate of most cities in Hebei province is higher than population growthrate, and it is especially significant in recent years from the vertical perspective. the coefficient forallometric growth from 0.75 in 2000 （power function） and 0.66 （linear function）， increased in 20120.87 （power f
15、unction） and 1.00 （linear function）， from negative allometric to positive allometric.From the horizontal perspective, the land expansion coefficients of nearly two-thirds of cities exceedthe reasonable value and the expansion coefficients of prefecture-level cities are large. Except of fewcities, the overall urban population density of Hebei province is low.Keywords: city size; population; land; man-land relationship; Hebei目 录1 前言1.1 研究背景和意义1.2 国内外研究进展1.2.1 城市化及其相关研究1.2.2 城市地理分形研究1.2.3 人口与用地关系研究1.3 研究目标、内容与技术路线1.3.1 研究目标1.3.2 研究内
