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1、Global Scenarios: Choosing the World We WantBy Allen Hammond 一直以来，公司的决策者和军事策划者们在举棋不定时经常会使用发展趋势一词作为决策的有力辅助手段。现在，这一手段可用于更广泛的社会目的，并可用于制订在社区、国家及国际水平上的维护公共利益政策。1. Scenarios have long been used by corporate strategists and military planners as powerful tools to aid in decision making in the face of uncert
2、ainty. It is now time for these tools to be used for wider social purposes and incorporated into public policy processes at the community, national, and international levels. 人们试图去预测世界发展路线或寻求过分简化及单向的解决方法，对此我们都应保持怀疑态度，因为世界形势极其复杂。发展趋势分析则在我们展望未来时提供了一种更为错综复杂的观点,使我们集中注意所要面临的决策选择。2. The world is exceeding
3、ly complex, and we should view attempts to predict its course or to offer simplistic and one-dimensional prescriptions for solutions with great skepticism. Scenarios provide a way of incorporating more complexity into our view of the future and of focusing attention on the strategic choices that we
4、face.几种发展趋势的分析被用在最近由世界资源学会、布鲁金斯学会及圣达非学院共同承担的2050计划中。该计划为本文所概括的模式提供了一种知识基础。进一步的知识支持来自全球发展趋势分析团体正在进行的研究工作，这是一个由斯德哥尔摩环境协会主办的独立的国际性学术团体。我提出的发展模式还基于对经济、社会、环境及人口趋势的长期分析，以及从世界银行、联合国机构及世界资源协会所搜集的各国资料。3. Scenarios were used in the recent 2050 Project undertaken by the World Resources Institute, the Brookings
5、 Institution, and the Santa Fe Institute. The 2050 Project provided one of the intellectual underpinnings of the scenarios summarized here. Further support came from the on-going work of the Global Scenario Group, an independent international group of scholars hosted by the Stockholm Environment Ins
6、titute. My scenarios are also supported by an analysis of long-term economic, social, environmental, and demographic trends and based on country-by-country data from the World Bank, UN agencies, and the World Resources Institute.本文所论及的几种发展模式表明了三种互相矛盾的观点，并为下半个世纪全球及七大洲分别确定了三条不同的发展路线。4. These scenarios
7、 reflect three conflicting world views and set out three different trajectories for the next half century for the globe as a whole and, separately, for each of seven major continental-scale regions.市场世界模式The Market World Scenario 人们相信市场和私营企业能创造繁荣，为人类带来幸福安康，对未来的一种看法正是基于此信仰。这种观点认为美国长期的经济繁荣表明自由市场政策、公司改
8、组和企业精神为世界各地树立了榜样。5. One view of the future is rooted in a belief in the power of markets and of private enterprise to create prosperity and improve human welfare. This view maintains that the extended U.S. economic boom shows that free-market policies, corporate restructuring, and entrepreneurship o
9、ffer a model for the rest of the world.市场世界的发展模式也意味着进一步的全球市场统一、当代史无前例的技术革新、民主的全球性传播以及全球各地文化水准的提高。其论点是：起动市场、给予社会经济中的私营部分充分自由、打破贸易壁垒进行自由贸易，这样一切都会变好。在世界的每个地区，经济迟早会快速增长，日益繁荣。6. The Market World scenario also points to increasing global market integration, the unprecedented technological innovation of ou
10、r time, the worldwide spread of democracy, and rising literacy in virtually all parts of the globe. The thesis is: Let markets work, turn loose the private sector break down barriers to free trade, and all will be well. Sooner or later, rapid economic growth and increasing prosperity will happen in
11、virtually every region of the world. 市场世界模式及支持这种论述的世界观点都不易消除。这些观点可在经济学家及华尔街日报上看到。其拥护者控制着公司的董事会议，其魅力激发着无数的企业家。 正如石油分析员丹尼尔叶尔津所说：市场支配一切。自由市场改革正促使各地政府缩小规模,解除管制,搞私有化。革新的步伐以惊人的速度带来新机遇-人们亲眼目睹了因特网的出现、电子商务的展开以及生物技术的不断突破。全球化的进程势不可挡：仅在20年内，国际货币的每日交易量已由200亿美元猛增至1.25万亿美元以上；尽管亚洲爆发了金融危机，海外投资总量仍大幅度增加。7. The Market
12、World scenario and its supporting worldview are not easily dismissed. Its voice can be heard in the pages of The Economist and the Wall Street Journal. Its adherents dominate corporate board rooms, and its allure motivates countless entrepreneurs. Markets are in the ascendancy, as oil analyst Daniel
13、 Yergin has argued. Free-market reforms have moved governments everywhere to downsize, deregulate, and privatize. The pace of innovation breeds new opportunities at astonishing speed - witness the rise of the Internet, the spread of electronic commerce, and proliferating breakthroughs in biotechnolo
14、gy. And globalization proceeds inexorably: In just 20 years, international currency transactions have swelled from $ 20 billion per day to more than $ 1.25 trillion per day, and corporate investments abroad have soared despite the Asian financial crisis.富垒世界模式A Fortress World市场并不是万能的。市场不能革除贫穷等社会弊端，也
15、不能阻止环境恶化，反而使之愈演愈烈。另外，全球金融市场的近况表明，真正自由的、不受制约的市场是极不稳定的。全球性的市场繁荣仍然高度集中：只有少数二十几个发展中国家从私营企业投资中获益较大，而七十多个国家的收入低于1980年的水平。8. Markets cannot do everything. They do not necessarily redress social wrongs such as poverty or prevent environmental disasters; they often make them worse. Moreover, truly free, unre
16、gulated markets can be very unstable, as shown by recent events in the global financial markets. The global market boom remains highly concentrated: Fewer than two dozen developing nations benefit to any significant degree from private investment, while in more than 70 countries incomes are lower now than they were in 1980. 这种较为悲观的富垒世界观点植根于两种信仰：大部分人将无法从市场所带来的繁荣中受益；缺乏约束的市场及普遍存在的贫穷将会破坏森林和渔场，侵蚀土壤，污染水源，改变地球气候。富垒世界模式认为，这些弊病将最终破坏很多地区市场和经济增长所依赖的自
