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1、1,Content,Executive Summary 执行摘要 Introduction to valuation Discount cash flow (DCF) B1. Cash flow B2. Discount rate and WACC （ Weighted Average Cost of Capital的缩写。WACC代表公司整体平均资金成本，可用来衡量一个项目是否值得投资；项目的回报必须不低于WACC） B3. Terminal value 终值 B4. Common DCF Q P/S; Revenues/EBIT, etc.,Real options model Dynam
2、ic value components of investments and acquisitions Based on Black/Scholes model Used for weighting risky projects,Asset based method “the divestment view” Valuing assets outside their operating use (not as going concern) Replacement values versus book values Value indications: comparable assets; in
3、dependent appraises,DCF method -“the strategic view” Discounted cash flow of future periods Estimation of synergies Alternative approaches: discounted dividends, discounted incomes, etc.,16,A combination of different approaches must be used to calculate a valuation range,Comparable companies method,
4、DCF method,Comparable transactions method,Asset based method,Valuation range,Change to Real Options,17,Discount cash flow (DCF) B1. Cash flow B2. Discount rate and WACC B3. Terminal value B4. Common DCF Q better to have a “market-driven” justification Do not take account of probability distribution
5、of potential outcomes,40,Nonetheless do not ignore hurdle rates,Can account for risk by running base, upside, and downside cases and attaching probability to each outcome To ease “political issues” high level decisions can limit availability of capital to disfavored businesses; such an approach is c
6、ommon There is a tendency not to make risk adjustments,41,Typical Chinese hurdle rates,Nominal: 10-16% Real: 6-12% Note High rates are typical and compensate for “hockey-stick” projections often made by divisional management These rates are higher than market-driven WACCs and would tend to cause com
7、panies to under-invest These rates imply high inflation Companies keep their rates for a long time without change,need to check,42,Discount rate can be calculated use weight average cost of capital (WACC),Discount rate used in DCF is the costs of different type of financing, debt and equity, and pro
8、portionally weighted,43,Cost of debt is relatively simple,7-10 year maturity Non-convertible Fixed rate Use BoC capital markets update on costs of debt for how to calculate the pre-tax cost of debt, and spreads,44, as is the weighting of debt and equity - usually,WACC should use market value weights
9、 for each financing element because market values, unlike accounting values, reflect the true economic claim of each type of financing Generally use net debt, not gross, except where cash on the balance sheet is needed for the every day running of the business and could not be used to reduce gross d
10、ebt (very judgmental) Using gross debt could be seen as more conservative, but NB would raise leverage in WACC calculation and hence reduce WACC i.e. a trade-off The share of net debt should be the current weighting unless the company is explicitly targeting a different capital structure. Check also
11、 your forecast gives rise to a future capital structure that is compatible with your WACC assumption Typically 10-20% debt in the China,Check,45,Cost of equity is harder to define,Uncertain payment stream In China, use long-term government high coupon fixed interest index, less market risk adjustmen
12、t For continental Europe we use benchmark 10-year government bond (less relevant market risk adjustment) CAPM i.e. cost of equity is some premium over a risk-free rate is widely-used and accepted,46,Cost of equity can be calculated wit capital asset pricing model (CAPM),Cost of equity can be represe
13、nted as that investors need to be compensated in two ways Time value of the money: risk-free rate of return Risk: premium by holding the company stock,Companys cost of equity,Investors expected return investing in a companys stock,Risk-free rate of return,Risk premium for companys stock,CAPM,rf,47,B
14、eta measures the sensitivity of a companys stock to movements in the market as a whole.,Since the only risk in the marker is systematic risk, the marker risk premium rewards the investor in the market for assuming systematic risk. The investor in a companys stock should only be compensated for holdi
15、ng the systematic risk of his investment,A companys Beta = level of systematic risk in its stock,48,Company risk premium are determine by market risk premium and beta,: measures the sensitivity of the firms stock returns to the returns of the market,Market risk premium: premium associated with risk
16、from holding the market company to holding risk free investment,49,Selecting the “right” Beta may lead to heated discussions,When available, use Barra-Alacra prospective s (if not historical ), and use comparables for unquoted entities Always check beta against those of comparables, remembering to adjust for leverage by comparing unlevered Betas. If very different use those of comparables Remember to check if Betas are levered or unlevered Betas. To unlever use the formula:u=I/
