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1、Multinational Financial Management Alan Shapiro 7th EditionJ.Wiley 2.)Gold inflow led to higher prices which reduced surplus; 3.)Gold outflow led to lower prices and increased surplus.,13,A BRIEF HISTORY,III.The Gold Exchange Standard (1925-1931) A.Only U.S. and Britain allowedto hold gold reserves.
2、 B.Others could hold both gold, dollars or pound reserves.,14,A BRIEF HISTORY,C.Currencies devalued in 1931 - led to trade wars. D.Bretton Woods Conference - called in order to avoid future protectionist and destructive economic policies,15,A BRIEF HISTORY,V.The Bretton Woods System (1946-1971) 1.U.
3、S.$ was key currency; valued at $1 - 1/35 oz. of gold. 2.All currencies linked to that price in a fixed rate system.,16,A BRIEF HISTORY,3.Exchange rates allowed to fluctuate by 1% above or below initially set rates. B.Collapse, 1971 1.Causes: a.U.S. high inflation rate b.U.S.$ depreciated sharply.,1
4、7,A BRIEF HISTORY,V.Post-Bretton Woods System (1971-Present) A.Smithsonian Agreement, 1971: US$ devalued to 1/38 oz. of gold. By 1973: World on a freely floating exchange rate system.,18,A BRIEF HISTORY,B.OPEC and the Oil Crisis (1973-774) 1. OPEC raised oil prices four fold; 2. Exchange rate turmoi
5、l resulted; 3. Caused OPEC nations to earn large surplus B-O-P.,19,A BRIEF HISTORY,4. Surpluses recycled to debtor nations which set up debt crisis of 1980s. C.Dollar Crisis (1977-78) 1.U.S. B-O-P difficulties 2.Result of inconsistent monetary policy in U.S.,20,A BRIEF HISTORY,3.Dollar value falls a
6、s confidence shrinks. D.The Rising Dollar (1980-85) 1.U.S. inflation subsides as theFed raises interest rates 2.Rising rates attracts global capital to U.S.,21,A BRIEF HISTORY,3.Result: Dollar value rises. E.The Sinking Dollar:(1985-87) 1.Dollar revaluated slowly downward; 2.Plaza Agreement (1985) G
7、-5 agree to depress US$ further.,22,A BRIEF HISTORY,3.Louvre Agreement (1987) G-7 agree to support the falling US$. F.Recent History (1988-Present) 1.1988 US$ stabilized 2.Post-1991 Confidence resulted in stronger dollar 3.1993-1995 Dollar value falls,23,PART III.THE EUROPEAN MONETARY SYSTEM,I.INTRO
8、DUCTION A.The European Monetary System (EMS) 1.A target-zone method (1979) 2.Close macroeconomic policy coordination required.,24,THE EUROPEAN MONETARY SYSTEM,B.EMS Objective: to provide exchange rate stability to all members by holding exchange rates within specified limits.,25,THE EUROPEAN MONETAR
9、Y SYSTEM,C.European Currency Unit (ECU) a “cocktail” of European currencies with specified weights as the unit of account.,26,THE EUROPEAN MONETARY SYSTEM,1. Exchange rate mechanism (ERM) - each member determines mutually agreed upon central cross rate for its currency.,27,THE EUROPEAN MONETARY SYST
10、EM,2.Member Pledge: to keep within 15% margin above or below the central rate.,28,THE EUROPEAN MONETARY SYSTEM,D.EMS ups and downs 1. Foreign exchange interventions: failed due to lack of support by coordinated monetary policies.,29,THE EUROPEAN MONETARY SYSTEM,2.Currency Crisis of Sept. 1992 a. Sys
11、tem broke down b.Britain and Italy forced towithdraw from EMS.,30,THE EUROPEAN MONETARY SYSTEM,G.Failure of the EMS: members allowed political priorities to dominate exchange rate policies.,31,THE EUROPEAN MONETARY SYSTEM,H.Maastricht Treaty 1.Called for Monetary Union by 1999 (moved to 2002) 2.Esta
12、blished a single currency: the euro,32,THE EUROPEAN MONETARY SYSTEM,3.Calls for creation of a single central EU bank 4.Adopts tough fiscal standards,33,THE EUROPEAN MONETARY SYSTEM,I.Costs / Benefits of A Single Currency A. Benefits 1.Reduces cost of doing business 2.Reduces exchange rate risk,34,TH
13、E EUROPEAN MONETARY SYSTEM,B.Costs 1.Lack of national monetary flexibility.,35,PART IV. EMERGING MARKET CURRENCY CRISES,Transmission Mechanisms A.Trade links contagion spreads through trade B.Financial System -more important transmission mechanism -investors sell off to make up for losses,36,EMERGIN
14、G MARKET CURRENCY CRISES,Origins of Emerging Market Crises A.Moral hazard B.Fundamental Policy Conflict,37,EMERGING MARKET CURRENCY CRISES,Policy Proposals for Dealing with Emerging Market Crises A.Currency Controls B. Freely Floating Currency C.Permanently Fixed Exchange Rate,38,1、有时候读书是一种巧妙地避开思考的方
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