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1、UNCLASSIFIED / FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Strategic Competition in an Era of Artificial Intelligence July 2018 ByMichaelC.Horowitz,GregoryC.Allen, ElsaB.Kania,andPaulScharre 1 1 ABOUT THE AUTHORS GregoryC.AllenisanAdjunctFellowintheTechnologyandNationalSecurityProgramatthe CenterforaNewAmericanSecurity(C
2、NAS). MichaelC.HorowitzisanAdjunctSeniorFellowatCNASandaprofessorofpoliticalscienceatthe UniversityofPennsylvania. ElsaKaniaisanAdjunctFellowintheTechnologyandNationalSecurityProgramatCNAS. PaulScharreisaSeniorFellowandDirectoroftheTechnologyandNationalSecurityProgramat CNAS. ABOUT THIS REPORT Thisr
3、eportispartoftheCenterforaNewAmericanSecuritysseriesonArtificialIntelligenceand InternationalSecurity.Theseriesexaminesthepotentialconsequencesofadvancesinartificial intelligenceforthenationalsecuritycommunity.Nearlyeveryaspectofnationalsecuritycouldbe transformedbyartificialintelligence.AIhasapplic
4、ationsfordefense,intelligence,homeland security,diplomacy,surveillance,cybersecurity,information,andeconomictoolsofstatecraft.The UnitedStatesmustnotonlyanticipatethesedevelopments,butactdecisivelytoprepareforusesby competitorsandtakeadvantageoftheopportunitiesAIpresents. ALSO IN THIS SERIES TheArti
5、ficialIntelligenceandInternationalSecurityseriesincludes: ArtificialIntelligence:WhatEveryPolicymakerNeedstoKnowbyPaulScharreandMichaelC. HorowitzwithPrefacebyRobertO.Work ArtificialIntelligenceandInternationalSecuritybyMichaelC.Horowitz,GregoryC.Allen, EdoardoSaravalle,AnthonyCho,KaraFrederick,andP
6、aulScharre ThisseriesispartoftheCenterforaNewAmericanSecuritysmulti-yearArtificialIntelligenceand GlobalSecurityInitiative.Learnmoreatcnas.org/AI. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS WewouldliketothankLorenSchulmanforherhelpfulcommentsonanearlydraftofthisreport. WewouldalsoliketothankMauraMcCarthyandAlleneBryantforthe
7、irroleintheproductionand designofthisreport.Anyerrorsoromissionsarethesoleresponsibilityoftheauthors.CNASdoes nottakeinstitutionalpositions. 2 2 TABLE OF CONTENTS Introduction. 3 WhatAretheKeyElementsofAINationalPower?. 5 TheCharacterofInternationalAICompetition. 8 CurrentU.S.Strategy. 9 Impactonthe
8、BalanceofPower.11 ArtificialIntelligenceCountryCaseStudies.12 China.12 India.14 Russia.15 ConclusionandRecommendations.17 Notes.20 3 3 INTRODUCTION Understandingwhatartificialintelligence“is”fromahistoricalperspectiveiscriticalto assessingthewaysthatitwilllikelyimpacttheinternationalsecurityenvironm
9、entandthe futureofinternationalcompetition.AIismoreakintoelectricityorthecombustionengine thanaparticularweapon,suchasanucleardevice,oraparticularplatform,likea battleship.GiventheextentofthedisruptionthatanalystsbelieveAIcouldcauseinthe globaleconomy,itisworththinkingabouttheconsequencesofAIintheco
10、ntextofthe industrialrevolutionsofthepast. Pastindustrialrevolutionshavegeneratedsignificantchangesinthebalanceofpower, internationalcompetition,andinternationalconflict.TheFirstIndustrialRevolution generatedmassiveincreasesinproductivityinEuropeandtheUnitedStates,firstinGreat Britainandthenbeyond.T
11、heconsequencesforthebalanceofpowerweresignificant. Throughitstechnologicalandorganizationalleadership,GreatBritainbecametheleading powerinEurope,pullingawayfromFranceandPrussia.TherelativeedgetheBritish gainedbybeingthefirstmoverintheFirstIndustrialRevolutiongeneratedreturnsthat fueledthecontinuedexpansionoftheBritishempireandgaveGreatBritainaleadthatthe restoftheworldwouldtakedecadestocatchupto.Moreover,thedisruptionsto traditionalfamilystructureswiththeshiftawayfromthefarm,alongwithunderlyingshifts intheeconomy,ledtosocialinstabilityandusher
