罗兰贝格:中央银行的新现实

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1、THINK ACT BEYOND MAINSTREAM PART 2 New realities in central banking The rise of cryptofinance in central banking January2017 THE BIG 3 2 THINK ACT Digital currencies PLUS ASSESSMENTS FROM ALL OVER THE WORLD P. 8 5-7% of GDP is the cost of cash in developing economies. Page 6 90+ central banks are cu

2、rrently discussing the implications of digital currencies. Page 7 3% Central bank digital currency could lead to an increase in the steady- state level of GDP of almost 3%. Page 8 THINK ACT Digital currencies 3 2017 is heralded as the dawn of digital currencies in the financial services industry. Em

3、erging digital and virtual technologies are lauded as the most disruptive innovations since the advent of the internet. Both hoodies and suits start-ups and incumbents are em- bracing the arrival of digital currencies. Amid all the hype, it is important to sift through and identify the key messages

4、relevant in the world of finance. In our previous THINK ACT edition, New realities in central banking: The organizational challenge, we examined the structural changes and transformation necessary for central banks to become high performance organiza- tions. In this edition, we reveal the impact of

5、digital currencies on central banks, explain the underlying technologies, and make recommendations for central banks in the digital age. In order for central banks to maintain relevancy into the future, they are tasked with evaluating the development of a central bank dig- ital currency. Having curr

6、ency represented in a digital manner is nothing new. In fact, this has been the case since the digitization of communications. At present, in developed markets nearly all money is held and ex- changed by digital means in the form of information and only a small percentage of all money in circulation

7、 exists in physical form. While a central bank digital currency will not completely replace physical notes and coins any time soon, adoption rates are difficult to predict. There can be no doubt that these digital tech- nologies are here to stay. A The digital dawn beckons: Introducing the concept o

8、f a central bank digital currency. DEFINITIONS BLOCKCHAIN: A blockchain is a distributed ledger, consisting of immutable, digitally recorded data in packages called blocks. DIGITAL CURRENCY: Digital payment mechanism that is denominated in fiat currency (for example a central bank digital currency).

9、 VIRTUAL CURRENCY: Digital representations of val- ue, issued by private developers, and denominated in its own unit of account. CRYPTOCURRENCY: Digital or virtual currencies that use cryptography for their operations (these in- clude Bitcoin, Litecoin, Ethereum). PROBABILISTIC CONCENSUS SYSTEM: Dat

10、abase that is updated by the consensus of the participants in the system. The system requires no trusted interme- diaries (e.g. blockchain). DETERMINISTIC CONTRACTING SYSTEM: The transfer of assets occurs through the exchange of cryptographically secured digital contracts between trading parties. Tr

11、ansactions in these systems are vali- dated by a neutral third party witness a digital notary. Source: IMF 4 Bitcoin started as a digital alternative to current central bank backed fiat currency in 2009. It is decentralized in its nature, has a fixed supply, and is not legal tender. Furthermore, it

12、is not issued by a central authority or backed by a central bank and is still young and mostly unknown to the general public. It has not seen wide- spread adoption in its first six years for a number of reasons. The most notable of these being a lack of in- frastructure and price fluctuation which m

13、akes the process of buying, trading, and securing Bitcoin com- plex. The majority of people are yet to realize its poten- tial benefits as an exchange mechanism and store of value. The technology, however, enables end users to hold on to digital assets directly, whether they are a fiat currency, ass

14、et, or commodity. Our current financial system is built on a model of custodian guardianship trusting financial institu- tions to hold and track who owns each asset. This in- cludes stock brokers, financial managers, commercial banks, and others. Bitcoin alone will not shape the fu- ture of financia

15、l services. However, in the future, the underlying blockchain technology will shake up the structures of a broad variety of industries, allowing in- dividuals to conduct transactions without relying on a third party. With this technology, people are able to hold assets directly, just as banknotes an

16、d coins are held in a wallet today. B Although Bitcoin is considered a digital currency, it is more accurately described as a cryptocurrency. Cryp- tography is what makes Bitcoin unique. It is where the differentiation between every other virtual or digital currency becomes apparent. Cryptography controls nearly every aspect of Bitcoin from production to dis- tribution and storage. As there is no central entity or bank controlling the production of Bitcoin, one of its great

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