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1、North America Equity Research 16 June 2017 Global Banks Research Highlights Week Ending June 16, 2017 See page 44 for analyst certification and important disclosures, including non-US analyst disclosures. J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a
2、result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. This report provides a summary of the research produced by J.P. Morgan
3、Global Bank Equity Research. Key highlights from the past week are below. Singapore Financials: Rates postpone banks upside, SGX worth a re- look Qatar National Bank : Stress test shows franchise resilience although valuation not compelling U.S. Mid- and Small-Cap Banks Interest Rate Weekly Monitor
4、: FOMC Raises Rates; Yield Curve Continues to Flatten; Mortgage Rates Reverse 4 Week Trend Credicorp : A Natural Disaster Doesnt Necessarily Mean Subdued Growth - Establishing YE18 US$210 PT Hong Leong Bank : RoEs to stay range-bound, stay Neutral Hamilton Lane : F4Q17 Positive Fundraising Trends an
5、d Outlook More than Offset Higher G Four Deals Last Week; YTD Deal Count Mostly Inline with Last Year B3 : May Data: Very High Volatility Leading to One of the Best Months Ever in Terms of Volumes Large Cap Banks : Fed Weekly: Credit Cards Up Very Strongly Last Wk; C Deposits Up Sharply Insurance &
6、Financial Valuation Update : June 9: Reconfirmation that Interest Could Easily Rise on Minor Exit Theories, Because BoJs JGB Holdings Have Risen CCAR 2017 Preview : U.S. Large-Cap Banks, Mid- & Small-Cap Banks, Global Investment Banks, and Specialty & Consumer Finance Completed 16 Jun 2017 06:10 AM
7、EDT Disseminated 16 Jun 2017 06:41 AM EDT 4 North America Equity Research 16 June 2017 Global Banks Research Highlights US Banks Figure 1: Top 10 and bottom 10 weekly price performance Source: J.P. Morgan Figure 2: Price target & 52 week high and low analysis Source: J.P. Morgan 4.7% 4.7% 4.2%4.2% 3
8、.6% 3.6% 3.3% 3.1% 2.9%2.9% 1.5% 1.4% 1.3% 1.3% 1.2%1.2% 0.9% 0.8% -0.3% -0.7% -1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% FITBCMAAFNTRSMBFIZIONSTTCFGWBSBKSTICMSFCBBXSBXSVLYNYCBFHNSBNY US - Banks 22% 20% 17%16% 16% 15% 13% 13% 12% 12%11% 11%10% 10% 9%8% 8%7%7% 6%6%6%6%6%6%5% 5%5%5%5% 4%4% 3%3%2% 1%1% -2%-3%
9、 -3% -7% -32% -100% -80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% CMP To 52 week-highCMP To 52 week-lowCMP To PT 5 North America Equity Research 16 June 2017 Global Banks Research Highlights Figure 3: Loans/deposit vs. Loans/total assets analysis - First year of estimate Source: J.P. Morgan Figure 4:
10、Deposit growth vs. Loan growth analysis - First year of estimate Source: J.P. Morgan 0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0% 80.0% 100.0% 120.0% 140.0% Loans/depositLoans/total assets -10.0% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0% Deposit growthLoan Growth 6 North America Equity Research 16 June 2017 Gl
11、obal Banks Research Highlights Figure 5: P/E vs ROA analysis (Blue=OW, Red=UW, Grey=N) - First year of estimate Source: J.P. Morgan Figure 6: P/B vs ROE (Blue=OW, Red=UW, Grey=N) - First year of estimate Source: J.P. Morgan BXS BAC BK BKU BBT C CFG CMACFR FNB FITB FHN FRC FCB HBAN MBFI NYCB NTRS OPB
12、 PNC RF SBNY STT STI SIVBSNV TCF USB UMPQ VLY WBS WFC ZION GS MS GWB MTB KEY FBK PBCT 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 0.6% 0.8% 1.0% 1.2% 1.4% 1.6% 9.0 x11.0 x13.0 x15.0 x17.0 x19.0 x21.0 x23.0 x ROA P/E BXS BAC BK BKU BBT C CFG CMA CFR FNB FITB FHN FCB HBAN MBFI NYCB OPB PNC RF SBNY STT STI SNV TCF USB UMPQ VLY WBS
13、 WFC ZION GS MSGWB MTB KEY FBK PBCT 3.0% 5.0% 7.0% 9.0% 11.0% 13.0% 15.0% 0.5x0.7x0.9x1.1x1.3x1.5x1.7x1.9x2.1x ROE P/B 7 North America Equity Research 16 June 2017 Global Banks Research Highlights Figure 7: NII/Net revenue vs. PPOP/Avg assets analysis - First year of estimate Source: J.P. Morgan Fig
14、ure 8: Reserves/Gross Loans vs NCO rate analysis Source: J.P. Morgan 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% NII/Net revenue - LHSPPOP/Avg Assets - RHS 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% OPBCCMA USB FITBRF ZION CFR SIVB PNC STI WFC WBS FHB CFG BXS MBFIHBAN MTB KEY SNV FHN BBT TCF FBK F
15、NB SBNYGWB PBCT BKU VLY FRC FCB NTRSNYCB Reserves/Gross LoansNCO rate (RHS) 8 North America Equity Research 16 June 2017 Global Banks Research Highlights Figure 9: RORWA vs RWA/Total asset analysis - First year of estimate Source: J.P. Morgan Figure 10: Efficiency ratio analysis - Cost/Income ratios
16、 for Year 0 and Year 1 Efficiency ratio = Total Non Interest Expense (Net Interest Income+Total Non interest Income) Source: J.P. Morgan CMA STI FITB PNCZIONRF SNV USB BBT FHN TCF WFC VLY FRC FNB OPB GS UMPQWBS MBFI C CFRNYCB BAC SBNY NTRS SIVB MS BK STT GWB MTB KEY FBK PBCT 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0% 90.0% 100.0% 110.0% 0.5%0.7%0.9%1.1%1.3%1.5%1.7%1.9%2.1%2.3%2.5% RWA/Total asset RORWA 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0% Yr0Yr
