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1、September 11, 2020 11:47 PM GMTMORGAN STANLEY & CO. LLCMatthew HornbachSTRATEGISTMatthew.H+1 212 761-1837Guneet Dhingra, CFASTRATEGISTGuneet.D+1 212 761-1445David S. Adams, CFASTRATEGISTDavid.S.A+1 212 761-1481Andrew M WatrousSTRATEGISTAndrew.W+1 +1-212-761-5287Kelcie GersonSTRATEGISTKelcie.G+1 212
2、761-3983Diego HerreraSTRATEGISTDiego.H+1 212 761-1046Global Macro Strategist | GlobalFailing FiscallyVery few expect failure when heading back to school, but markets have doubts about pre-election US fiscal stimulus. Uncertainty over fiscal policy should pass the baton to uncertainty over the US ele
3、ction and Brexit keeping markets range bound. Fiscal failure could bring more Fed easing.20Interest Rate StrategyWe exit 5y TIPS/30y UST yield curve steepeners, and maintain long 5y TIPS outright. We lower our UST yield forecasts. We maintain long 10y BTPs vs Short 10y German Bunds, long 10y Netherl
4、ands vs short 10y GermanMORGAN STANLEY & CO. INTERNATIONAL PLC+Tony SmallSTRATEGISTBunds and short UKT 30s vs long 30y DBR 30s. Exit JGB 7s30s steepeners and long 10y AUD JGB ASW, and change JGB 5s20s flattener to long 20y JGB vs pay 2y swap, enter long 10y USD JGB ASW. We update our rates forecasts
5、 and close our Canada 2s10s steepener.Currency & Foreign ExchangeWe see an increased probability of hard Brexit and update our GBP views. USD correlation to equities breaks down when relative US equity outperformance exceeds the 90th percentile. We investigate how mobility has been affected by the r
6、ecent resurgence in Covid-19 cases and the implications for G10 FX. Long EUR/NOK 3m call spreads as a hedge for US election volatility. EUR/SEK and USD/CAD should trade sideways.Tony.SSheena ShahSTRATEGISTSheena.SGek Teng KhooSTRATEGISTGek.Teng.KJohn KalamarasSTRATEGISTJohn.KAlina ZaytsevaSTRATEGIST
7、Alina.ZLorenzo TestaSTRATEGISTLorenzo.T+44 20 7677-2571+44 20 7677-6457+44 20 7425-3842+44 20 7677-2969+44 20 7677-1120+44 20 7677-0337Inflation-Linked BondsWe continue to suggest staying long 5y TIPS, and 30y breakeven wideners.MORGAN STANLEY MUFG SECURITIES CO., LTD.+Koichi SugisakiSTRATEGISTWe ta
8、ke a deep dive into inflation trends and suggest why weakness in rent inflation should not bog down bullish TIPS investors.Koichi.SShoki OmoriSTRATEGISTShoki.O+81 3 6836-8428+81 3 6836-5466Short-Duration StrategyWe answer common questions investors have been asking since Vanguard decided to switch a
9、 prime MMF to a government MMF. While we dont think the switch will have direct impacts on unsecured funding markets, the risk is that other large MMFs follow suit, driving FRA/OIS wider.Interest Rate DerivativesWe still suggest long 3m10y ATMF straddles, delta hedged, as upper right vol should perf
10、orm on uncertainties surrounding the timing and sizing of a stimulus package, and realized vol picking up going into the US election.Technical AnalysisMixed weak trends in G10 rates. In G10 FX, medium-term trends remain DXY bearish, EUR bullish vs. GBP, CHF, JPY; AUD bullish vs. USD, NZD, CAD.Please
11、 click here if you would like to receive the daily Global Macro CommentaryDue to the nature of the fixed income market, the issuers or bonds of the issuers recommended or discussed in this report may not be continuously followed. Accordingly, investors must regard this report as providing stand-alon
12、e analysis and should not expect continuing analysis or additional reports relating to such issuers or bonds of the issuers.Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of inte
13、rest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan Stanley Research. Investors should consider Morgan Stanley Research as only a single factor in making their investment decision.For analyst certification and other important disclosures, refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of this repo
14、rt.+= Analysts employed by non-U.S. affiliates are not registered with FINRA, may not be associated persons of the member and may not be subject to FINRA restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account.Global Macro StrategyMORGAN STANLEY & CO. LLCMatthew HornbachMatthew.H+1 212 761-1837The 2020 Institutional Investor (II) Global Fixed-Income Research poll is open. If you enjoy our
