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1、 Could the bad old days of economic decline be about to return? Since OPEC agreed to supply-cuts in March, the price of crude oil has jumped to almost $26 a barrel, up from less than $10 last D . Could the bad old days of economic decline be about to return? Since OPEC agreed to supply-cuts in March
2、, the price of crude oil has jumped to almost $26 a barrel, up from less than $10 last December. This near-tripling of oil prices calls up scary memories of the 1973 oil shock, when prices quadrupled, and 1979-1980, when they also almost tripled. Both previous shocks resulted in double-digit inflati
3、on and global economic decline. So where are the headlines warning of gloom and doom this time? The oil price was given another push up this week when Iraq suspended oil exports. Strengthening economic growth, at the same time as winter grips the northern hemisphere, could push the price higher stil
4、l in the short term。 Yet there are good reasons to expect the economic consequences now to be less severe than in the 1970s. In most countries the cost of crude oil now accounts for a smaller share of the price of petrol than it did in the 1970s. In Europe, taxes account for up to four-fifths of the
5、 retail price, so even quite big changes in the price of crude have a more muted effect on pump prices than in the past。 Rich economies are also less dependent on oil than they were, and so less sensitive to swings in the oil price. Energy conservation, a shift to other fuels and a decline in the im
6、portance of heavy, energy-intensive industries have reduced oil consumption. Software, consultancy and mobile telephones use far less oil than steel or car production. For each dollar of GDP (inconstant prices) rich economies now use nearly 50% less oil than in 1973. The OECD estimates in its latest
7、 Economic Outlook that, if oil prices averaged $22 a barrel for a full year, compared with $13 in 1998, this would increase the oil import bill in rich economies by only 0.25-0.5% of GDP. That is less than one-quarter of the income loss in 1974 or 1980. On the other hand, oil-importing emerging econ
8、omiesto which heavy industry has shiftedhave become more energy-intensive, and so could be more seriously squeezed。 One more reason not to lose sleep over the rise in oil prices is that, unlike the rises in the 1970s, it has not occurred against the background of general commodity-price inflation an
9、d global excess demand. A sizable portion of the world is only just emerging from economic decline. The Economists commodity price index is broadly unchanging from a year ago. In 1973 commodity prices jumped by 70% and in 1979 by almost 30%。 31. The main reason for the latest rise of oil price is Ag
10、lobal inflation. Breduction in supply。 Cfast growth in economy. DIraqs suspension of exports。 32. It can be inferred from the text that the retail price of petrol will go up dramatically if Aprice of crude rises. Bcommodity prices rise。 Cconsumption rises. Doil taxes rise。 33. The estimates in Econo
11、mic Outlook show that in rich countries Aheavy industry becomes more energy-intensive。 Bincome loss mainly results from fluctuating crude oil prices。 Cmanufacturing industry has been seriously squeezed。 Doil price changes have no significant impact on GDP。 34. We can draw a conclusion from the text
12、that Aoil-price shocks are less shocking now。 Binflation seems irrelevant to oil-price shocks。 Cenergy conservation can keep down the oil prices。 Dthe price rise of crude leads to the shrinking of heavy industry。 35. From the text we can see that the writer seems Aoptimistic. Bsensitive. Cgloomy. Ds
13、cared。 名师解析 31. The main reason for the latest rise of oil price is 最近的油价上涨的主要原因是 Aglobal inflation. 全球通货膨胀。 Breduction in supply。供应量减少。 Cfast growth in economy. 快速的经济增长。 DIraqs suspension of exports. 伊拉克暂时停止石油出口。 【答案】 B 【考点】 事实细节题。 【分析】 根据题干可以定位到第一段的第二句话“Since OPEC agreed to supply-cuts in March, t
14、he price of crude oil has jumped to almost $26 a barrel, up from less than $10 last December。”说明由于石油输出国决定降低供给量使得油价上升。所以本题的答案是B。D不是该现象的主要原因因为“OPEC”的相关决定才是能够影响石油价格的走势的主要原因。 32. It can be inferred from the text that the retail price of petrol will go up dramatically if 从文中可以推断出如果_汽油的零售价格将会剧烈上升。 Aprice
15、of crude rises. 原油价格上升。 Bcommodity prices rise. 日用品价格上升。 Cconsumption rises. 消费上升。 Doil taxes rise. 油税上升。 【答案】 D 【考点】 推断题。 【分析】 根据题干可以定位到第三段的第三句话“In Europe, taxes account for up to four-fifths of the retail priceso even quite big changes in the price of crude have a more muted effect on pump prices than in the past。.”意思是说“在欧洲税占汽油的零售价的五分之四因此相比以往原油的价格变化对汽油的影响不会很明显”。也就是说税的增加会导致
