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1、In Search of Davos Man Peter Gumbel 1 William Browder was born in Princeton, New Jersey, grew up in Chicago，and studied at Stanford University in California. But dont call him an American. For the past 16 of his 40 years he has lived outside the U.S., first in London and then, from 1996, in Moscow,
2、where he runs his own investment firm. Browder now manages $ 1.6 billion in assets. In 1998 he gave up his American passport to become a British citizen, since his life is now centered in Europe. “National identity makes no difference for me,” he says. “I feel completely international. If you have f
3、our good friends and you like what you are doing, it doesnt matter where you are. Thats globalization.” 威廉?布劳德在新泽西州的普林斯顿出生，成长于芝加哥，就读于加利福尼亚州的斯坦福大 学。但别称其为美国人。他今年 40 岁了，过去的 16 年来一直没在美国生活，最初是在伦敦， 1996 年后在莫斯科经营自己的投资公司。布劳德如今掌管的资产价值是 16 亿美元。1998 年，他放弃美国护照，成为一名英国公民，因为欧洲是他现在的生活中心。“国家认同对我 来说无所谓，”他说，“我觉得自己完全是个
4、国际人。如果你有四个好朋友，而且你又喜欢自 己所做的事情，那么你在哪儿都无关紧要。那就是全球化。” Alex Mandl is also a fervent believer in globalization, but he views himself very differently. A former president of AT the corporations and countries that benefited from it were largely content to treat vast parts of the world as places to mine natu
5、ral resources or sell finished products. Even as the globalization of capital accelerated in the 1980s, most foreign investment was between relatively wealthy countries, not from wealthy countries into poor ones. U.S. technology, companies and money were often at the forefront of this movement. 全球贸易
6、已经持续了几个世纪；过去从中获益的企业和国家在很大程度上满足于这一点，即 将世界上的广大地区当做自然资源的开采或者是成品的销售地。尽管到了 20 世纪 80 年代， 资本全球化的速度加快，大多数外国投资仍然在相对富裕的国家间进行，并非从富裕国家流 向较贫穷的国家。美国的技术、公司和资金通常处于这种流动的前沿。 7 However the past two decades have witnessed the rise of other significant players. The developed world is beating a path to China and Indias d
7、oor and Chinese and Indian companies, in turn, have started what it calls a “Going Out” policy that encourages Chinese firms to buy assets overseas. Asian nations are creating “a remarkable environment of innovation,” says John,2,3,Chambers, chief executive of Cisco System. “China and India are grad
8、uating currently more than five times the number of engineers that we are here in the U.S.” That means U.S. and European companies are now facing high-quality, low cost competition from overseas. No wonder so many Western workers worry about losing their jobs. “If the issue is the size of the total
9、pie, globalization has proved a good thing,” say Orit Gadiesh, chairman of consultants Bain & Co. “If the issue is how the pie is divided, if youre in the Western world you could question that.” 但是，故去的二十年见证了另外一些重大参与者的出现。发达国家正在开辟一条通向中国和 印度的大门的道路-中国和印度的公司却将眼光投向海外以谋求未来的发展。北京甚至 提出了“走出去”的政策，鼓励中国企业购买海外资产。
10、亚洲各国正在形成“一个卓越的创 新性环境”，思科系统公司的首席执行官约翰钱伯斯如是说，“目前中国和印度的工科大学 毕业生是我们美国的五倍还多。”那就意味着美国和欧洲的公司正面临着来自外海的高质量 且低成本的竞争。难怪那么多西方工人担心失业。“如果问题涉及的是整个蛋糕的大小，那 全球化已经被证明是件好事。”贝恩管理咨询公司的董事长奥里特加迪西说，“如果问题是 在于蛋糕怎么分，而你又是西方人，那你就会质疑全球化。” The biggest shift may just be starting. A landmark 2003 study by Goldman Sachs predicted tha
11、t four economies Russia, Brazil, India and China will become a much larger force in the world economy than widely expected, based on projections of demographic and economic growth, with China potentially overtaking Germany this decade. By 2005, Goldman Sachs suggested, these four newcomers will like
12、ly have displaced all but the U.S. and Japan from the top six economies in the world. 最大的变化或许刚刚开始。高盛集团 2003 年进行的一项既有里程碑意义的研究预测说，根 据对人口和经济增长的预计，四大经济体-俄罗斯、巴西、印度和中国-在世界经济中 的力量将普遍超过预期。中国的经济实力极可能就在这个十年内赶超德国。高盛集团说，到 2050 年，这四大经济体将有可能取代目前世界前六大经济体中除美国和日本之外的四个经 济体。 Its also entirely possible that the near fu
13、ture may see the pendulum of capital swing away from Davos Man-style globalization. One counterpoint is Manila Woman low-paid migrant workers from Asia and elsewhere who are increasingly providing key services around the world. Valerie Gooding, the chief executive of British health care company BUPA
14、, says the British and U.S. health care system would break down without immigrant nurses from Philippines, India, Nigeria and elsewhere. unlike Davos Man, she says, theyre not ambivalent about being strongly patriotic. 在不远的将来，资本流动也完全有可能脱离达沃斯人式的全球化运行的轨迹。与达沃斯人相 对应的是马尼拉女人。这些来自亚洲和其他地方的低薪流动工人正在全世界提供日益增多的
15、 关键服务。英国一家医疗保健公司-保柏集团的首席执行官瓦莱丽戈丁说，要是没有来 自菲律宾、印度、尼日利亚和其他地方的移民护士，英美两国的医疗保健体系就会崩溃。她 说，与达沃斯人不同，她们毫不掩饰自己强烈的爱国情绪。 Not all Davos Men seek global markets, either. Patrick Sayer runs a private equity firm in France called Eurazeo, and complains there are still too many barriers to cross-border business in Eu
16、rope, let alone the world. So hes focused Eurazeo on its domestic market. “I profit from being French in France. Its easier for me to do deals,” Sayer says. “Its the same elsewhere. If youre not Italian in Italy, you wont succeed.” 并不是所有的达沃斯人都在追逐全球市场。帕特里克塞尔在法国经营一家名为尤拉吉奥投 资集团的私募股权公司。他抱怨说，欧洲跨国经营中尚有太多的障碍，更别提全球化经营了。 因此他的尤拉吉奥投资集团专注于国内市场。“我是法国人，在法国做生意对我而言要方便,4,得多，”塞尔说，“别处也一样。如果你不是意大利人，却要在意大利做生意，你是无法取得 成功的。” 11 That may sound like a narrow nationalism, yet it contains a hidden wisd
