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1、2020 Changes in the Affordability of Housing in Canadian and American Cities, 20062016 Josef Filipowicz, Steven Globerman, and Joel Emes 2020 Fraser Institute Changes in the Affordability of Housing in Canadian and American Cities, 20062016 by Josef Filipowicz, Steven Globerman, and Joel Emes fraser
2、institute.org Contents Executive Summary / i Introduction / 1 Cities and the Economy / 2 Housing Costs and Housing Affordability / 4 Changes in Housing Affordability and Population Growth in Canadian and American Metropolitan Areas / 7 The Effects of Changes in Median Incomes and Shelter Costs / 11
3、Concluding Comments / 14 Appendix 1: Components of the Shelter Cost Variable / 16 Appendix 2: Total sample of metropolitan areas ranked by per-bedroom shelter costs as a share of income (2016) / 19 Appendix 3: Changes in space-adjusted shelter costs as a share of income, and population (%), 20062016
4、 / 30 References / 52 About the authors / 55 Acknowledgments / 56 About the Fraser Institute / 57 Publishing Information / 58 Supporting the Fraser Institute / 59 Purpose, Funding, and Independence / 59 Editorial Advisory Board / 60 Filipowicz, Globerman, and Emes Housing Affordability in Canadian a
5、nd American Cities, 20062016 i fraserinstitute.org Executive Summary By bringing together workers, capital, businesses, and ideas in a compact geographic market, cities promote improved productivity performance, and thereby faster eco- nomic growth and higher real incomes for workers. The affordabil
6、ity of housing in a city can aid or hinder this synthesis. As demand for labour grows in the most productive metropolitan areas, workers willingness to relocate in pursuit of better opportunities in the job market becomes central not only to their own fortunes, but also to overall economic efficienc
7、y and industrial competitiveness. An important factor conditioning labour mobility is the affordability of housing, which varies greatly among regions and cities. In particular, if the expected productivity and wage gains associated with the geo- graphical mobility of labour are bluntedpartially or
8、fullyby higher housing costs, overall standards of living can suffer. This publication provides a better understanding of how housing affordability has evolved in metropolitan areas, comparing how shelter costs, as a share of income, have changed between 2006 and 2016 for 396 Canadian and American m
9、etropolitan areas. Specifically, we identify the growth in the share of median gross incomes dedicated to shelter costs, per bedroom, in each metropolitan area, for those two years. According to this measure of changes in affordability, shelter costs fell as a share of median incomes in the vast maj
10、ority (312) of the full sample of Canadian and US metro- politan areas over this period. The overall decline averaged 7.3% (8.7% when weighted by population). However, most of the urban regions that showed improved housing affordability were in the United States, with all but three Canadian location
11、s (out of 52) exhibiting increases in per-bedroom shelter costs as a share of incomes. In fact, shelter costs as a share of income increased by 7.2% across the full sample of Canadian cities over this period (7.6% when weighted by population). We also explore the relationship between changes in affo
12、rdability and population growth. We find that a majority of metropolitan areas was able to combine improved affordability with a growing population. Here too, however, Canada differs from the United States, with 46 of 52 Canadian cities combining growing populations with reduced affordability; this
13、includes the countrys six metropolitan areas with more than one mil- lion inhabitants. However, for both the American and Canadian samples, the statistical relationship between the percentage change in population and the percentage change in the share of income dedicated to shelter between 2006 and
14、2016 is weak; this suggests that decreasing housing affordability is not an inevitable consequence of an increase in housing demand generated by a growing population. ii Housing Affordability in Canadian and American Cities, 20062016 Filipowicz, Globerman, and Emes fraserinstitute.org We finish by d
15、ecomposing the data in our measure of affordability to separate out changes in median incomes and shelter costs and glean preliminary insights into what is driving the divergence between Canadian and American metropolitan areas. We find that nominal median household income actually grew faster in ou
16、r sample of Canadian cities than in US cities. However, shelter costs per bedroom grew significantly faster in Canadian locations than in the US locations in our sample. Hence, the decline in hous- ing affordability in Canada relative to the United States reflects a more rapid increase in shelter costsrather than a slower growth of median incomesin Canadian cities compared to the majority of their American counterparts. Our findings suggest several areas for future research. One is
