《全球宏观策略：进化而不是革命》由会员分享，可在线阅读，更多相关《全球宏观策略：进化而不是革命（103页珍藏版）》请在金锄头文库上搜索。
1、August 21, 2020 11:50 PM GMT103Global Macro Strategist | GlobalEvolution, Not RevolutionOur review is more likely to produce evolution, not a revolution, in the way we conduct monetary policy. Fed says it wants an inflation revolution, but tells us its monetary policy evolution. Has it got a real so
2、lution? Depends on how it changes the strategy constitution. Powell speaks Thursday.Interest Rate StrategyWe maintain curve steepeners long 5y TIPS vs. short 30y UST, and long 5y1y UST vs. short 30y UST. We continue to be long 20s on 10s20s30s fly.MORGAN STANLEY & CO. LLCMatthew HornbachSTRATEGISTMa
3、tthew.HGuneet Dhingra, CFASTRATEGISTGuneet.DDavid S. Adams, CFASTRATEGISTDavid.S.AAiling DengSTRATEGISTAiling.DAndrew M WatrousSTRATEGISTAndrew.WKelcie GersonSTRATEGISTKelcie.GDiego HerreraSTRATEGISTDiego.H+1 212 761-1837+1 212 761-1445+1 212 761-1481+1 212 761-0481+1 +1-212-761-5287+1 212 761-3983+
4、1 212 761-1046We maintain long 10y BTPs vs short 10y Bunds, long 10y Netherlands vs short 10y Bunds, short 30y Gilts vs long 30y Bunds, and UKT 2s5s steepeners. We maintain JGB 5s20s flattener and JPY 20s30s flattener. WeMORGAN STANLEY & CO. INTERNATIONAL PLC+Tony SmallSTRATEGISTSheena ShahSTRATEGIS
5、TSheena.S+44 20 7677-6457Gek Teng KhooSTRATEGISTGek.Teng.K+44 20 7425-3842Alina ZaytsevaSTRATEGISTAlina.Z+44 20 7677-1120also keep tactical JGB 7s30s steepener as a hedge, and continue to look for steepeners in Canada and flatteners in NZ.Currency & Foreign ExchangeWe explore why currencies react di
6、fferently to higher inflation prints. We also look at which currencies are above or below what real yield differentials would imply. We stay long AUD/NZD and short USD/CAD, but tighten our stop to 1.33 and still expect EUR/CHF to rally.Tony.S+44 20 7677-2571Inflation-Linked BondsWe maintain long 5y
7、TIPS outright and 30y breakeven wideners, andMORGAN STANLEY MUFG SECURITIES CO., LTD.+Koichi SugisakiSTRATEGISTaddress why explicit forward guidance from the Fed is not a necessary condition for 5y real yields to decline further.Short-Duration StrategyReserves at large domestic banks have grown more
8、, in outright dollarKoichi.SShoki OmoriSTRATEGISTShoki.O+81 3 6836-8428+81 3 6836-5466amounts and proportionately, than any other subset of banks. However, reserves are not being utilized fully, as deposit creation is lagging.Therefore, there is ample cash that could enter funding markets.Interest R
9、ate DerivativesUS rate gamma richened in August and realized vol bounced back from its bottom. We maintain being long 3m10y straddle. We exit the trade theme that fades the expiry inversion with a net short vol bias in the 6m to 3y expiry on the 10y tail originally suggested in March.Technical Analy
10、sisTrends remain weak in G10 rates. In G10 FX, USD trending lower against EUR, GBP, AUD, CAD; EUR higher against CHF, JPY; AUD/NZD higher.The Global Macro Strategist will return on Friday, September 11.Due to the nature of the fixed income market, the issuers or bonds of the issuers recommended or d
11、iscussed in this report may not be continuously followed. Accordingly, investors must regard this report as providing stand-alone analysis and should not expect continuing analysis or additional reports relating to such issuers or bonds of the issuers.Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business wit
12、h companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan Stanley Research. Investors should consider Morgan Stanley Research as only a single factor in making their investment deci
13、sion.For analyst certification and other important disclosures, refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of this report.+= Analysts employed by non-U.S. affiliates are not registered with FINRA, may not be associated persons of the member and may not be subject to FINRA restrictions on co
14、mmunications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account.Global Macro StrategyMORGAN STANLEY & CO. LLCMatthew HornbachMatthew.H+1 212 761-1837Andrew WatrousAndrew.W+1 212 761-5287We All Want to Change the WorldAt the Economic Policy Symposium on Thursday, August 27, Fed Chair Powell may unveil the Feds new monetary policy framework in hopes of changing how the world sees the prospects for fu
