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1、第三十三章 总需求与总供给 Aggregate Demand and Aggregate Supply,1,美国的真实GDP,2,短期经济波动 Short-Run Economic Fluctuations 经济活动年复一年地波动 Economic activity fluctuates from year to year. 在大多数年份里，物品与服务的生产是上升的 In most years production of goods and services rises. 在一些年份，正常的增长没能出现，导致了衰退。 In some years normal growth does not o
2、ccur, causing a recession. 衰退是真实GDP下降、收入减少、失业上升的时期 A recession is a period of declining real GDP, falling incomes, and rising unemployment. 萧条是严重的衰退 A depression is a severe recession.,3,关于经济波动的三个关键事实 Three Key Facts About Economic Fluctuations 经济波动是不规则和不可预测的。 Economic fluctuations are irregular and
3、 unpredictable. 经济当中的波动常常被称作经济周期（或译商业周期） Fluctuations in the economy are often called the business cycle. 大多数宏观经济变量一起波动。 Most macroeconomic variables fluctuate together. 随着产出下降，失业率上升。 As output falls, unemployment rises.,5,美国的真实GDP,6,中国的真实GDP（指数） Real GDP（Indexed） in China 中国的实际GDP（1978100）,关于经济波动的三
4、个关键事实 Three Key Facts About Economic Fluctuations 大多数宏观经济变量一起波动。 Most macroeconomic variables fluctuate together. 大多数衡量某种收入或生产的宏观经济变量几乎同时波动。 Most macroeconomic variables that measure some type of income or production fluctuate closely together. 虽然许多宏观经济变量一起波动，他们波动的幅度并不同。 Although many macroeconomic
5、variables fluctuate together, they fluctuate by different amounts.,8,美国的真实GDP,9,美国的投资支出,10,美国的失业率,11,关于经济波动的三个关键事实 Three Key Facts About Economic Fluctuations 随着产出下降，失业上升。 As output falls, unemployment rises. 真实GDP的变化和失业率的变化呈反向关系。 Changes in real GDP are inversely related to changes in the unemploym
6、ent rate. 在衰退时期，失业大幅上升。 During times of recession, unemployment rises substantially.,12,解释短期经济波动 Explaining Short-run Economic Fluctuations 古典经济学的基本假设是古典二分法与货币货 币中性。 The basic assumptions of classical economics are the classical dichotomy and monetary neutrality. 所有宏观变量分成两类：名义变量与真实变量。 All macroecono
7、mic variables can be separated into two groups: nominal variables and real variables. 货币供给的变化影响名义变量而非真实变量。 Changes in the money supply affect nominal variables but not real variables.,13,解释短期经济波动 Explaining Short-run Economic Fluctuations 按照古典经济学，我们可以在不引入名义变量（货币供给、价格水平）的情况下，考察真实变量（真实GDP、真实利率和失业）的决定。
8、 According to classical economics, we are able to examine the determinants of real variables (real GDP, the real interest rate, and unemployment) without introducing nominal variables (the money supply and the price level.) 大多数经济学家相信，古典理论描述了长期中的世界，但没有描述短期中的世界。 Most economists believe that classical
9、theory describes the world in the long run but not in the short run.,14,解释短期经济波动 Explaining Short-run Economic Fluctuations 短期内，真实和名义变量高度相关。 In the short run, real and nominal variables are highly intertwined. 货币供给的变化使真实GDP暂时地偏离其长期趋势。 Changes in the money supply can temporarily push real GDP away fr
10、om its long-run trend. 一个旨在解释短期经济的新模型需要集中关注名义和真实变量的相互影响。 A new model aiming to explain the economy in the short-run should focus on how real and nominal variables interact.,15,总需求与总供给模型 The Model of Aggregate Demand and Aggregate Supply 短期经济波动模型集中关注两个变量的行为。 The model of short-run economic fluctuatio
11、n focuses on the behavior of two variables. （以真实GDP衡量的）经济中物品与服务的产出。 The economys output of goods and services measured by real GDP. （以CPI或GDP平减指数衡量的）整体价格水平。 The overall price level measured by the CPI or the GDP deflator.,16,总需求与总供给模型 The Model of Aggregate Demand and Aggregate Supply 经济学家使用总需求与总供给模
12、型来解 释经济活动围绕其长期趋势的短期波动 Economist use the model of aggregate demand and aggregate supply to explain short-run fluctuations in economic activity around its long-run trend.,17,18,总需求与总供给模型 The Model of Aggregate Demand and Aggregate Supply 总需求曲线表示任一物价水平上，家庭、企业或政府在想要购买的物品与服务的数量。 总供给曲线表示在任一物价水平上，企业生产和销售的物
13、品与服务的数量。,19,总需求曲线 The Aggregate Demand Curve GDP（总支出）的四个组成部分即构成了对物品与服务的总需求。 The four components of GDP (total expenditure) contribute to the aggregate demand for goods and services. AD C + I + G + NX,20,21,总需求曲线为什么向下倾斜 Why the Aggregate Demand Curve Is Downward Sloping 价格水平与消费：财富效应 The Price Level a
14、nd Consumption: The Wealth Effect 价格水平与投资：利率效应 The Price Level and Investment: The Interest Rate Effect 价格水平与净出口：汇率效应 The Price Level and Net Exports: The Exchange-Rate Effect.,22,价格水平与消费：财富效应 The Price Level and Consumption: The Wealth Effect 价格水平的下降使得消费者感觉更加富有，这反过来鼓励他们支出更多。 A decrease in the price
15、 level makes consumers feel more wealthy, which in turn encourages them to spend more. 消费支出的上升意味着对物品与服务更大的需求数量。 This increase in consumer spending means larger quantities of goods and services demanded.,23,价格水平与投资：利率效应 The Price Level and Investment: The Interest Rate Effect 更低的价格水平降低了利率，这鼓励了对投资品的更大
16、支出。 A lower price level reduces the interest rate, which encourages greater spending on investment goods. 投资支出的增加意味着物品与服务的需求数量更大。 This increase in investment spending means a larger quantity of goods and services demanded.,24,价格水平与净出口：汇率效应 The Price Level and net Exports: The Exchange-Rate Effect 当美国的价格水平下降导致了美国的利率下降，实际汇率就会贬值，这又刺激了美国的净出口。 When a fall in the U.S. price level causes U.S. interest rates to fall, the real exchange rate depreciates, which stimulates U.S. net exports. 净出口支出的增
