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1、Project Portfolio ManagementAn Introduction李俊伟 November 2002Beijing,项目管理者联盟, MYPM.NET,2,Content,Emergence of Project Portfolio Management (PPM) Portfolio Management in Financial Market Overview of PPM PPM, Process and Techniques,3,The Emergence of Project Portfolio Management,1952, Modern Portfolio
2、Theory (MPT), Harry Markowitz, Journal of Finance, Portfolio Selection 1990, Harry Markowitz shared Nobel Prize, dominant approach used to manage risk and return within financial markets 1981, F.Warren McFarian, Portfolio Approach to Information Systems, HBR, to employ a risk-based approach to the s
3、election and management of IT projects. 1990s, a broader use of ideas of portfolio management 1998, John Thorp, The Information Paradox. Portfolio management was used to manage risk and maximize return along a number of dimensions. Present, portfolio management as central elements of good investment
4、 management,4,Portfolio Management, the overall picture,Focus (Strategic Planning ),Source: PM Solutions, Portfolio Management, Dianne Bridges,Select (Portfolio Management),Manage (Project Management),5,Content,Emergence of Project Portfolio Management (PPM) Portfolio Management in Financial Market
5、Overview of PPM PPM, Process and Techniques,6,The Old Philosophy about Portfolio,Dont put all your eggs in one basket.,Risk aversion seems to be an instinctive trait in human beings. . .,7,Return and Risk in Financial Market,expected return,standard deviation (%),capital appreciation,growth of incom
6、e,0 6 12 18 24 30 36,20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0,income,inflation,T-bills,intermediate-term government bonds,long-term government bonds,long-term corporate bonds,large company stocks,small company stocks,stability of principal,8,The Role of Combining Securities,The expected return of a portfolio is
7、a weighted average of the component expected returns.,The Role of Combining Securities,10,The total risk of a portfolio comes from the variance of the components and from the relationships among the components. .org .,10,The Role of Combining Securities,expected return,risk,better performance,A port
8、folio dominates all others if no other equally risky portfolio has a higher expected return, or if no portfolio with the same expected return has less risk.,The point of diversification is to achieve a given level of expected return while bearing the least possible risk.,11,The Efficient Frontier :
9、Optimum Diversification of Risky Assets,expected return,risk (standard deviation of returns),impossible portfolios,dominated portfolios,efficient frontier,The optimal combinations result in lowest level of risk for a given return The optimal trade-off is described as the efficient frontier,12,The Ef
10、ficient Frontier vs Naive Diversification,As portfolio size increases, total portfolio risk, on average, declines. After a certain point, however, the marginal reduction in risk from the addition of another security is modest.,total risk,Non-diversifiable risk,number of securities,Naive diversificat
11、ion is the random selection of portfolio components without conducting any serious security analysis.,13,Risk Reduction with Diversification,14,Market or systematic risk: risk related to the macro economic factor or market index Unsystematic or firm specific risk: risk not related to the macro facto
12、r or market index Total risk = Systematic + Unsystematic,Components of Risk,15,Two-Security Portfolios with Different Correlations,16,Relationship depends on correlation coefficient -1.0 +1.0 The smaller the correlation, the greater the risk reduction potential If= +1.0, no risk reduction is possibl
13、e,Portfolio Risk/Return, Correlation Effects,17,Structuring a Portfolio : Asset Allocation,individual choice asset class mix investment results,18,Content,Emergence of Project Portfolio Management (PPM) Portfolio Management in Financial Market Overview of PPM PPM, Process and Techniques,19,What is p
14、roject portfolio management,Portfolio Management is the project selection process and involves identifying opportunities: assessing the organizational fit; analyzing the costs, benefits, and risks; and developing and selecting a portfolio. The art of project portfolio management is: doing the right
15、thing, selecting the right mix of projects and adjusting as time evolves and circumstances unfold.,20,Portfolio Management is:,Defining goals and objectives clearly articulate what the portfolio is expected to achieve Understanding, accelerating, and making tradeoffs determine how much to invest in
16、one thing as opposed to something else Identifying, eliminating,minimizing, and diversifying risk select a mix of investments that will avoid undue risk, will not exceed acceptable risk tolerance levels, and will spread risks across projects and initiatives to minimize adverse impacts Monitoring portfolio performance understand the progress that the portfolio is making toward the achievement of the goals
