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1、全球化与全球问题,郭长刚 历史学教授 全球学中心主任 文科处处长 上海大学 2012.11.25,一、世界历史的全球化进程,15-16世纪地理大发现 18-19世纪工业革命 20世纪信息与通信技术 地球村 20世纪国际政治格局变迁 冷战结束-经济全球化,二、全球化与全球问题,全球问题vs国际问题 Global Issues International Issues,全球问题举要 气候变暖/碳排放 环境问题/污染 恐怖主义 毒品 疾病/Saars, Aids 人权问题 ,(1) Global warming,he increase in the average temperature of Ea
2、rths near-surface air and oceans since the mid-20th century and its projected continuation. According to the 2007 Fourth Assessment Report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), global surface temperature increased 0.740.18C (1.330.32F) during the 20th century,our continued use of
3、fossil fuels is pushing us to a point of no return. And unless we free ourselves from a dependence on these fossil fuels and chart a new course on energy in this country, we are condemning future generations to global catastrophe. -President Obama,terrorism,Ideology it is thought to be pragmatically
4、 related to the U.S. national interest. The principles of these neoconservatives are universalistic, but not so their policy, which steers clear of international organizations and is nationalist and unilateralist. (Adam Wolfson, “Conservatives and Neoconservatives”, The Public Interest, Winter, 2004
5、),God has made us the master organizers of the world to establish system where chaos reignsHe has marked the American people as His chosen nation to finally lead in the regeneration of the world. This is the divine mission of America (quote an Indiana Senator). The American Empire has always oscilla
6、ted between “soft power”persuading others to want what it wantsand “hard power”forcing others to comply with its wishes,Containment Policy towards China 冷战后对中国的遏制 (After the collapse of former Soviet Union in 1991),July 23,1993， Issue of Cargo Ship “Galaxy”,美国“独立号”航空母舰,Chinese Societies in the U.S.
7、Protest against the visit of Taiwan Leader, Li Denghui,1995,Ruins of Chinese Embassy in Former Yugoslavia, 1999,Back Home of the Ashes of the Chinese Victims,美军亚太第一战舰：华盛顿号 航母参与演习,空中俯瞰美韩联合舰队,中国外交部反对美韩黄海军演,韩国独岛号参与演习,International Society for the Comparative Study of Civilizations42nd annual internatio
8、nal conference, June 6-9, 2012DeVry Universitys Crystal City (Arlington) campus, Washington D.C. THEME: The Coming Clash of Civilizations: China versus the West?The grand ascendance of China and the onset of an Asian-centered world order will undoubtedly be one of the great dramas of the twenty-firs
9、t century. Chinas extraordinary economic growth and active diplomacy are already transforming East Asia, and future decades will see even greater increases in Chinese power and influence. But exactly how this drama will play out is an open question.,topics： Will the Western-oriented world order come
10、 to be replaced by one increasingly dominated by China? What can the United States do to maintain its position as China rises? How likely is a war with Taiwan? What role will the “Chinese overseas population” play in the clash ofcivilizations? Has China any plans for world domination? Or is China a
11、fragile communist regime desperate to survive in a society turned upside down by miraculous economic growth and a stunning new openness to the greater world? Chinas New Model of Development in Africa versus the Wests “failed” Aid projects. Environmental fall-out of rapid Chinese industrialization Ho
12、w do the Chinese handle their ethnic minorities? Japanese and Korean reactions to the rise of China. What about the rise of India and Brazil?,2. 全球主义并不具有普世性,The U.S. dominated globalism if not for the interests of the world, but mainly for its own interest. Democracy, liberty, and free market are on
13、ly their means to secure their purpose. It does not bring out desirable results to other countries, especially developing countries is quite understandable.,经济维度/Economically The gap between the rich and the poor The weakness of Latin American economy The global financial crisis,(2) 社会维度/Socially La
14、ck of the control or central plan has resulted in serious social problem in under-developed countries.,For developing countries, what they need is a strong government to plan their economic and social development. But, under the globalism or neo-liberalism, the so-called market force can only bring
15、out social chaos. To quote Wallerstein, these countries will be more and more peripherized.,(3) 政治维度/Politically Along with the free market are Western/American values and political concepts or ideology. This, again, has caused disasters to the rest of the world,The Arab Spring (Secular state ideolo
16、gy) Civil wars or ethnic/national seperation in east Europe, Africa (Nation-State ideology) China also faced the very problem because we have total 56 nationalities Ottoman Empire?,当“民主”遇上“部落国家”：从利比亚到科特迪瓦,利比亚：几百个部落，3大部落瓦法拉、图阿里、卡达法，无绝对优势部落，东西对峙。,非洲、阿拉伯：当部落比国家重要的时候,当“民主”遇上“部落国家”：从利比亚到科特迪瓦,科特迪瓦：69个部落，4大族系。阿肯族系40，曼迪族系与沃尔特族系43，南北对峙。,在非洲阿拉伯，一个人首先是属于部落的，然后才是国家的。,当“民主”遇上“部落国家”：苏丹的分裂与战争,北部为信奉伊斯兰教的阿拉伯人，南部为信奉原始拜物教的黑人。1963年始内战9年，1983年始内战22年。,2011年7月，南部公投，苏丹分裂。最大的哈季利季油田跨界而立。2012
