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1、,企业战略定位,Average industry performance 行业平均盈利状况 Strategic positioning by individual firms 业内企业的不同定位,管理经济学,1,陶志刚,Source: Compustat, Value Line, Marakon Associates Analysis,Average Economic Profits of U.S. Industry Groups, 1978-19961978至1996年美国各行业平均经济利润率,Value Line Industry Groups,管理经济学,2,陶志刚,Source: Co
2、mpustat, Value Line, Marakon Associates Analysis,Average Economic Profits of Individual Firms in the Steel Industry, 1978 1996 1978至1996年美国钢铁行业中各企业的平均利润率,管理经济学,3,陶志刚,Source: Compustat, Value Line, Marakon Associates Analysis,Average Economic Profits of Individual Firms in the Drug Industry, 1978 -19
3、961978至1996年美国制药行业中各企业的平均利润率,管理经济学,4,陶志刚,Chinese Fireworks Industry中国烟花行业,Case Study 案例,管理经济学,5,陶志刚,Basic features of the industry行业基本情况,Types: display fireworks and consumer fireworks / 80% to 20% in 1999 主要产品为烟花(80%)和鞭炮(20%) Main ingredients by weight: 75% potassium nitrate, 15% charcoal, and 10%
4、sulfur 主要原料为： 75硝酸钾； 15木炭； 10硫磺 Low tech, labor-intensive 低技术含量、劳动密集型 Low initial investment: RMB one million for display fireworks, and less than RMB 100,000 for consumer firecrackers and fireworks 初始投资低,管理经济学,6,陶志刚,Liuyang, Hunan 湖南浏阳,Clusters: Liu Yang, LiLing (Hunan), Pingxiang, Wanzai (Jiangxi)
5、, Dongguan (Guangdong) 生产地区集聚化 Up to 400,000 people in Liuyang working in the industry (1/3 of the population involved) 40万或者说三分之一人口从事烟花业 500 manufacturers, with only one state-owned (more than 1,000 workers), a dozen medium or large ones (100-500 workers) / only 4 or 5 open all year round 500多家工厂，其
6、中最大的为国营，另外有十几家大中型厂家，只有四、五家为全年营运 LiuYang contributes to 60% of Chinas exports 中国烟花出口的六成来自浏阳,管理经济学,7,陶志刚,Safety issues 安全问题,Production stage 生产过程 Consumption Stage 消费过程,管理经济学,8,陶志刚,Domestic market 中国的烟花市场,Economic growth 经济增长 Government purchase 政府采购 Pollution/safety issues 污染及安全问题 Competition from pr
7、oducers in other provinces 来自其他地区的竞争,管理经济学,9,陶志刚,Export market 出口市场,China has 80-90% of the worlds fireworks market 中国占全球烟花市场的八至九成 Rich in variety, but low in price, due to poor quality control and packaging 种类多，但因质量差、包装粗糙而价格低 Part of the vertical chain 成为垂直生产链的一环,管理经济学,10,陶志刚,Questions 投资决定,Would y
8、ou invest in a Liuyang fireworks factory? 是否与浏阳烟花公司合资经营？ How attractive is the Chinese fireworks industry? 中国烟花行业的平均利润情况如何？,管理经济学,11,陶志刚,The “Five Forces” Framework for Industry Analysis “五种竞争力量”的行业分析框架,潜在竞争者,供应商,行业现有竞争者,替代品生产商,购买者,管理经济学,12,陶志刚,Power of Buyers 购买者的砍价能力,Impact on quality/performance
9、产品质量及性能 Product differences Brand identity 产品差异性 品牌认同度 Switching costs Substitute product 客户转移成本 替代产品 Buyer concentration 购买者的集中度 Buyer volume 购买量 Ability to backward integrate 后向一体化的能力 Buyer information 买方信息不对称程度,管理经济学,13,陶志刚,Power of Suppliers 供应商的砍价能力,Impact of inputs on cost or differentiation 零
10、部件对最终产品的重要程度 Substitute suppliers 要素替代品 Product differences 产品差异性 Brand identity 品牌认同度 Switching costs 客户转移成本 Supplier concentration 供应商的集中度 Supplier volume 供应量 Ability to forward integrate 前向一体化的能力 buyer information 买方信息不对称程度,管理经济学,14,陶志刚,Degree of Rivalry 行业竞争程度,Concentration / 行业集中程度 Product diff
11、erences / 产品差异性 Brand identity / 品牌认同度 Switching costs / 客户转移成本 Industry growth / 行业成长性 Sunk Costs / 沉没成本 Exit barriers / 退出障碍 Diverse stakes / 企业利益取向差异,管理经济学,15,陶志刚,Entry Barriers 潜在竞争者的进入障碍,Cost advantages 现有生产商的成本优势 - Economies of scale/scope 规模及范围经济 - Learning curve 学习曲线 - Access to necessary in
12、puts 必要生产要素的获得 (including capital and labor) - Access to distribution 营销渠道的获得 Product differences 产品差异性 Brand identity 品牌认同度 Switching costs 客户转移成本 Expected retaliation 行业现有竞争者的预期反应 Government policy 政府政策,管理经济学,16,陶志刚,Threat of Substitution 替代品的威胁,Threat depends on Relative price/performance 替代品的性价比
13、 Switching costs 客户转移成本 Often an S-curve process 威胁程度往往有漫长的成长过程,管理经济学,17,陶志刚,1997 and 1999 Hong Kong Property Industry1997年前后的香港房地产行业,Case Study 案例,管理经济学,18,陶志刚,1997 HK Property Industry 1997年香港房地产业,In 1997, 39% of the HK population lived in public rental estates and 12% in home ownership scheme fla
14、ts 1997年，39%的香港人居住在政府建造并廉价出租的公屋里，另有12%生活在政府建造并低价出售的居屋里 HK property industry was dominated by a few firms: Cheung Kong, Hutchison, Henderson, SHK, SWIRE, and HongKong Land 香港房地产业受控于少数几家公司： 长江实业集团，和记黄埔，恒基兆业，新鸿基， 太古集团和香港置地 Fuelled by growing demand, and limited supply, land value had appreciated rapidl
15、y in the years running up to 1997. 需求膨胀，供应有限，导致地产在97之前的几年中疯狂涨价,管理经济学,19,陶志刚,1997 HK property industry extremely attractive1997年的香港房地产业赢利极高,Henderson and SHK announced annual results for the year ending 30 June, 1997, in which their turnover totaled HK$18.9 billion and HK$28.9 billion respectively, a
16、nd their operating profit amounted to HK$11.1 billion (59%) and HK$15.7 billion (54%). 在1996年7月1日至1997年6月30日这一会计年度,恒基兆业和新鸿基的营业额分别为189亿港元和289亿港元，营运利润分别为111亿港元（利润率59%）和157亿港元（54%）。,管理经济学,20,陶志刚,On July 1, 1997, Tung Chee-hwa pledged that the government was to tackle the problem of inflating property prices.
