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1、Macroeconomics Chapter 8,1,An Equilibrium Business-Cycle Model,C h a p t e r 8,Macroeconomics Chapter 8,2,Cyclical Behavior of Real GDPRecessions and Booms,Real GDP = trend real GDP + cyclical part of real GDP Cyclical part of real GDP Coming from the business cycle Short-term economic fluctuations.
2、,Macroeconomics Chapter 8,3,Cyclical Behavior of Real GDPRecessions and Booms,Macroeconomics Chapter 8,5,Cyclical Behavior of Real GDPRecessions and Booms,Macroeconomics Chapter 8,6,An Equilibrium Business-Cycle Model,Macroeconomics Chapter 8,7,An Equilibrium Business-Cycle Model,Conceptual Issues A
3、ssuming that these fluctuations reflect shocks to the economy. Change in level of technology Y= A F( K, L) An increase in A means that the economy is more productive. A decrease in A means that the economy is less productive.,Macroeconomics Chapter 8,8,An Equilibrium Business-Cycle Model,Uses equili
4、brium conditions to determine how the shocks affect real GDP, Y, and other macroeconomic variables, such as consumption, C, investment, I, and the quantity of labor input, L. RBC model Finn Kydland & Edward Prescott （2004 Nobel Laureates）,Macroeconomics Chapter 8,9,An Equilibrium Business-Cycle Mode
5、l,The Model Y= A F( K, L) the capital stock, K, as fixed in the short run, the labor input, L, is fixed. Changes in Y will reflect only changes in A. When A rises, Y rises, When A falls, Y falls.,Macroeconomics Chapter 8,10,An Equilibrium Business-Cycle Model,The Model The marginal product of labor
6、and the real wage rate An increase in the technology level, A, raises the marginal product of labor, MPL, for given inputs of capital, K, and labor, L.,Macroeconomics Chapter 8,11,An Equilibrium Business-Cycle Model,Macroeconomics Chapter 8,12,An Equilibrium Business-Cycle Model,Macroeconomics Chapt
7、er 8,13,An Equilibrium Business-Cycle Model,The Model Marginal product of capital, real rental price, and the interest rate An increase in the technology level, A, raises the marginal product of capital, MPK, for given inputs of capital, K, and labor, L,Macroeconomics Chapter 8,14,An Equilibrium Bus
8、iness-Cycle Model,Macroeconomics Chapter 8,15,An Equilibrium Business-Cycle Model,Macroeconomics Chapter 8,16,An Equilibrium Business-Cycle Model,Marginal product of capital, real rental price, and the interest rate i = R/P i = MPK(evaluated at given K and L) The model predicts that an economic boom
9、 will have a relatively high interest rate, whereas a recession will have a relatively low interest rate.,Macroeconomics Chapter 8,17,An Equilibrium Business-Cycle Model,Consumption, saving, and investment Aggregate household budget constraint Given the markets for bonds, labor, and capital services
10、 clear: C + K = Y K,Macroeconomics Chapter 8,18,An Equilibrium Business-Cycle Model,C+ K = A F( K, L) K depreciation, K, is fixed in the short run, An increase in A raises real GDP for given K and L, we see that a rise in A raises overall real income.,Macroeconomics Chapter 8,19,An Equilibrium Busin
11、ess-Cycle Model,Consumption, saving, and investment income effect： The increase in real income motivates households to raise current consumption and future consumption. Intertemporal-substitution effect： The increase in the interest rate tends to reduce current consumption. The net change depends on
12、 whether the income effect is stronger or weaker than the intertemporal-substitution effect.,Macroeconomics Chapter 8,20,An Equilibrium Business-Cycle Model,Consumption, saving, and investment Assume that the change in A is permanent. the increases in real income tend also to be permanent. The prope
13、nsity to consume out of higher income would be close to one. When the increase in A is permanent, current consumption will rise. However, as long as the intertemporal-substitution operates at all, the increase in current consumption will be less than the increase in real GDP.,Macroeconomics Chapter
14、8,21,An Equilibrium Business-Cycle Model,Consumption, saving, and investment Since current consumption, C, rises, but by less than the increase in real GDP, Y. Therefore, net investment, K, must increase - the increase in real GDP shows up partly as more C and partly as more K. Since net investment,
15、 K, equals real saving, this result is consistent with our finding that real saving increased.,Macroeconomics Chapter 8,22,Matching the Theory with the Facts,Consumption and Investment When a variable fluctuates in the same direction as real GDP that variable is procyclical. A procyclical variable m
16、oves in the same direction as the business cycleit tends to be high relative to its trend in a boom and low relative to its trend in a recession.,Macroeconomics Chapter 8,23,Matching the Theory with the Facts,Consumption and Investment A variable that fluctuates in the opposite direction from real GDP is countercyclical. One that has little tendency to move in a particular direction during a business cycle is acyclical.,Macroeconomics Chapter 8,24,Matching the Theory with the Facts,Macr
