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1、,Presentation to the Automotive News World Congress,Stephen J. GirskyJanuary 2004,Disclosures,Analyst Certification Analyst Certification The following analysts hereby certify that their views about the companies and their securities discussed in this report are accurately expressed and that they ha
2、ve not received and will not receive direct or indirect compensation in exchange for expressing specific recommendations or views in this report: Stephen J. Girsky. Important US Regulartory Disclosures on Subject Companies The information and opinions in this report were prepared by Morgan Stanley i
3、n Singapore by organ Stanley Dean Witter Asia (Singapore) Pte., regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore; in Australia by Morgan Stanley Dean Witter Australia Limited A.B.N. 67 003 734 576, a licensed dealer, which accepts responsibility for its contents; in certain provinces of Canada by Mo
4、rgan Stanley Canada Limited, which has approved of, and has agreed to take responsibility for, the contents of this publication in Canada; in Spain by Morgan Stanley, S.V.,S.A., a Morgan Stanley group company, which is supervised by the Spanish Securities Markets Commission (CNMV) and states that th
5、is document has been written and distributed in accordance with the rules of conduct applicable to financial research as established under Spanish regulations; in the United States by Morgan Stanley and in the United Kingdom, this publication is approved by Morgan Stanley Less of them Global Dilemma
6、: Most participants spending for growth yet the industry does not grow. Demand growth is likely to be modest despite economic recovery. Competitive pressures are likely to remain difficult. Weaker dollar could level provide some offset. Higher rates create risk of weaker demand, weaker mix and lower
7、 finance company earnings. Big Three opportunity: Actual quality is better than perceived quality.,Global Light Vehicle Sales: Slow Growth,CAGR 1.2%,Source: LMCJ.D. Power What They Say,GM expects markets to grow around the world and their market share to grow in every region. Ford expects profits to
8、 decline in North America. They were not specific but suggest cost issues lingering. GM expects European profits to grow by $300-400mm($500-$700mm pretax) in 2004, while Ford expects profits to grow by $900-1,000mm. It is unclear how this profit growth can occur given the difficult market conditions
9、 there.,DaimlerChrysler,Product line has been playing defense for some time. Offense needs to get on the field. Chrysler faces perceived quality problems. Mercedes has actual quality problems. Affiliate issues may loom large in 2004. Commercial truck business at DCX could be a positive source of ear
10、nings for the company in 2004.,DCX Market Share,12.2%,12.8%,13.1%,Source: Autodata & Morgan Stanley Research,DCX Car & Lt. Truck Sales As A % of Parent,Cars,Light Trucks,Source: Autodata & Morgan Stanley Research,Chrysler & DCX Operating Margins,Source: Company reports & Morgan Stanley Research,DCX
11、New / Replacement / Redesigned Products,Source: Company Data, Wards Automotive & Morgan Stanley Research,Implications,GM will continue to pursue its “grow our way out” strategy. DCX improved cost structure is keeping it in the game. New product is critical to alleviating revenue pressure. Foreign OE
12、Ms are likely to continue to add capacity in NA. Ford likely to be playing defense for one more year. The company needs to hang on and continue to attack their costs until new product arrives. On the bright side, the Big Three product is the best its ever been.,Source: Morgan Stanley Research,Suppliers Relative Stock Performance: 2003,Source: FactSet & Morgan Stanley Research,Dealers Relative Stock Performance: 2003,Source: FactSet & Morgan Stanley Research,Expectations: Year Ago vs. Today,Source: Morgan Stanley Research,Stephen.GirskyMorganS,
