《职能战略-财务战略93培训讲学》由会员分享，可在线阅读，更多相关《职能战略-财务战略93培训讲学（57页珍藏版）》请在金锄头文库上搜索。
1、职能战略财务战略（策略）,李建良 北京信息科技大学经济管理学院 北京信息科技大学企业成长研究中心 2007年,要点,企业战略三层次逻辑框架 企业财务战略的逻辑框架 企业财务战略决策的要点 投资决策 基本原理 确定条件下的投资决策 不确定条件的投资决策 融资决策 营运资金决策 股利决策,企业战略三层次逻辑框架,投资决策基本原理,投资是经济主体让渡现行的货币使用权，以期在未来获得一定的货币收入的经济行为（规划现金流的行为）。包括实物投资和金融投资两大类； 投资活动的两大特征：时间（延期消费）和风险（未来不确定性）； 投资者的回报补偿：（）投资资金被占用的时间价值；（）预期的通货膨胀率；（）未来收益
2、的不确定性。 投资与资本,投资决策基本原理,Date 0,Date i,自由现金流,Date 1,C3,C0,C1,C2,Ci,适用的资金成本率（最低报酬率）,前提条件: 有效率资本市场（有效市场假设） 交易无成本 可自由进入资本市场 借入和借出资本的信息可获得 存在大量的交易者，且每一个交易者对市场价格均无显著影响 一个有效率的资本市场对净现值原理的意义： (1)给投资者根据其偏好对消费模式进行跨期调整提供了可能。这样，经理层只需依据正的净现值进行决策，无需关注不同投资者的消费模式的差异（可以通过在资本市场借入借出进行调整）； (2)给投资者、公司甚至政府提供了一个进行投资决策的比较标准：任
3、何一项投资至少应获得与资本市场投资相同的收益，否则直接投资资本市场获取机会收益就可。,投资决策基本原理,投资学决策基本原理,决策依据：接受净现值大于0的投资行为 确定条件下的投资决策 现金流估算 估算方法 增量现金流 沉没成本与机会成本 贴现率估算 期限问题（求极限） 通货膨胀问题 互斥项目投资决策 不确定条件下的投资决策,估算方法 从投资角度看，公司价值取决于其创造现金流的能力 现金流估算的不同视角 现金流量表 金融角度的现金流 注意： 净利润Net Income 自由现金流Free Cash Flow(FCF) 计算经营现金流时未考虑应收帐款是因为应收帐款在净营运资金的变动额中已经考虑了
4、在中国，现金流量表的编制很少有正确的，“其他与经营活动有关的现金流”一项往往很大,确定条件下的投资决策现金流估算,现金流量表 经营活动现金流 净利润 折旧 递延税款 流动资产和流动负债变动额 应收帐款 存货 应付帐款 应付费用 应付票据 其他 经营活动现金流合计 投资活动现金流 长期资产购置现金支出 长期资产处置现金流入 投资活动现金流合计 融资活动现金流 到期偿付债务（含到期票据） 新增长期负债 股利支出 股票回购 新股发行 融资活动现金流合计 现金流净变动额（对应资产负债表）,金融视角的现金流 公司现金流 经营活动现金流 税息前利润 折旧 当期支付税款 资本支出 长期资产购置现金支出 长期
5、资产处置现金流入 净营运资金变动额 本年净营运资金 上年净营运资金 合计 公司投资者的现金流 债权人 利息 到期偿付债务 长期债务融资 权益方 红利 股票（权）回购 新股发行 合计,Calculate from EBIT,not after-taxation profit, so current taxes should be reduced,确定条件下的投资决策现金流估算,现金流估算增量现金流（incremental basis） Incremental Cash Flows(增量现金流）: in calculating the NPV of a project, only cash flo
6、ws that are incremental to the project should be used. These cash flows are the changes in the firms cash flows that occur as a direct consequences of accepting the project. Sunk Costs（沉没成本）: a cost that has already occurred. Because sunk cost are in the past,they can not be changed by the decision
7、to accept or reject the project. Just as we “let bygones be bygones”, we should ignore such costs, that is, sunk costs are not incremental cash outflows. Opportunity Costs（机会成本）: If the assets is used in a new project, potential revenues from alternative uses are lost. These lost revenues can meanin
8、gfully be viewed as cost. They are called opportunity costs because, by taking the project, the firm forgoes other opportunities for using the assets. Side Effects（关联效应）: another difficulty in determining incremental cash flows comes from the side effects of the proposed project on other parts of th
9、e firm. The most important side effect is erosion. Erosion is the cash flow transferred to a new project from customers and sales of other products of the firm.,确定条件下的投资决策现金流估算,现金流估算增量现金流：总结 Capital budgeting must be placed on an incremental basis. This means that sunk costs must be ignored, while b
10、oth opportunity costs and side effects must be considered; In the Baldwin Company case, we computed NPV using the following two steps: A) calculate the net cash flow from all sources for each period B) calculate the NPV using the cash flows calculated above.,确定条件下的投资决策现金流估算,贴现率估算资本成本,The Weighted Av
11、erage Cost of Capital（加权平均资金成本）,由于公司在税后才向权益投资者支付股利，所以Re是税后报酬率,债务利息是税前支付，有减税作用，故Rd前必须乘以（1-T）以调整成税后债务成本,资本成本在投资决策中的作用： （）在NPV运用中作为折现率（假定项目风险与公司风险一致） （）在IRR运用中作为基准利率,确定条件下的投资决策贴现率估算,贴现率估算资本成本,The Cost of Equity Capital（权益成本）,Risk-free return: long-term bonds interest rate,Market return, usually represe
12、nted by market index return, such as the return of S machine B costs $ 600, lasts four years, maintenance expenses $ 100 per year; discount rate 10%. All costs in real term, revenue per year are assumed to be the same, regardless of machine. Which machine should be selected?,Under the same revenue,
13、machine A has lower cost, choose machine A?,NO! why?,Because machine B has a longer life so perhaps its cost per year is actually lower!,确定条件下的投资决策互斥项目,互斥项目新购买决策不对称期限处理：期限匹配法,Method 1: Matching Cycles suppose run the example for 12 years, machine A has 4 complete cycles, and machine B has 3. So comp
14、arison appropriate.,First replacement occurs at date 3, another 798.42 cost occurs in PV term.,First replacement occurs at date 4, another 916.99 cost occurs in PV term.,Problem: one the number of cycle is high, the amount of calculation is also high.,Prefer B!,确定条件下的投资决策互斥项目,Method 2: Equivalent An
15、nual Cost(EAC) Equate the single payment of 798,42 to machine A at date 0 with a three-year annuity; Equate 916.99 to machine B with a four-year annuity. Choose the less EAC machine.,An annuity of $1 a year for three years, discounted at 10%.,Since EACB EACA, Prefer B!,互斥项目新购买决策不对称期限处理：年平均成本法,确定条件下的
16、投资决策互斥项目,互斥项目设备更新决策不对称期限处理 Replacement Decision（设备更新决策）: when to replace an existing machine with a new one? First, calculate the EAC for the new equipment; second, calculate the yearly cost for the old equipment, this cost likely rises over time because the machines maintenance expenses should increase with age. Replacement should occur right before the cost of the old equipment exceeds the EAC on the new equipment.,确定条件下的投资决策互斥项目,Examp
