《美银美林：2020年下个十年的十大趋势-2019.12》由会员分享，可在线阅读，更多相关《美银美林：2020年下个十年的十大趋势-2019.12（56页珍藏版）》请在金锄头文库上搜索。
1、 Employed by a non-US affiliate of BofAS and is not registered/qualified as a research analyst under the FINRA rules. Refer to Other Important Disclosures for information on certain BofA Merrill Lynch entities that take responsibility for the information herein in particular jurisdictions. BofA Merr
2、ill Lynch does and seeks to do business with issuers covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their i
3、nvestment decision. Refer to important disclosures on page 54 to 56. 12047306 Thematic Investing Transforming World: The 2020s Thematic Investing 11 November 2019 The Decade of Inflection: reaching boiling point We enter the next decade with interest rates at 5,000-year lows, the largest asset bubbl
4、e in history, a planet that is heating up, and a deflationary profile of debt, disruption and demographics. We will end it with nearly 1bn people added to the world, a rapidly ageing population, up to 800mn people facing the threat of job automation and the environment on the brink of catastrophic c
5、hange. At the same time, 3bn more people will be connected online and global data knowledge will be 32x greater than today. The social, political and economic responses to these challenges, all heading to a boiling point this decade, will overhaul traditional paradigms. We outline BofAML Transformin
6、g Worlds top 10 themes to help investors navigate this decade ahead. 10 Themes for the Next 10 Years 1) Peak Globalization: the end of unrestricted free movement of labor, goods, and capital around the world. Winners: local markets, real assets; Losers: global markets. 2) Recession: record numbers o
7、f FMS investors think the global economy is late-cycle, the bond market bubble is set to unwind and populism is likely to be inflationary. Winners: inflation, real assets, infrastructure; Losers: growth, credit, deflation. 3) Quantitative Failure: monetary policy measures are proving less and less e
8、ffective at boosting corporate and household “animal spirits”. Winners: Keynesianism, gold; Losers: financial assets, Monetarism. 4) Demographics: the number of grandparents will outnumber the worlds children; every second 5 people enter the EM middle class and Gen Z overtakes Millennials. Winners:
9、eCommerce, new consumer; Losers: bricks Losers: fossil fuels, diesel cars, single-use plastics. 6) Robots Losers: humans, global supply chains. 7) Splinternet: China to overtake the US and become the world leader in AI by 2030. Sovereign internets expand. Winners: emerging markets/the East; Losers:
10、developed markets/the West. 8) Moral Capitalism: US$20tn of AuM is going into ESG strategies over the next 20 years = nearly market cap of S Losers: business-as-usual investing, solely profit-maximizing firms. 9) Smart Everything: 500bn connectable devices by 2030 to combat deflationary demographics
11、 but at the risk of the death of privacy. Winners: IoT, connectivity, smart cities, big brother tech; Losers: privacy, offline. 10) Space: tourism and nanosatellites are the next frontier for an industry that could be worth cUS$1tn by 2030. Winners: aerospace Losers: legacy satellites. Equity Global
12、 Thematic Investing Haim Israel Equity Strategist Merrill Lynch (Israel) Michael Hartnett Chief Investment Strategist BofAS Felix Tran Equity Strategist MLI (UK) Tommy Ricketts Investment Strategist BofAS Jared Woodard Investment Strategist BofAS Pinaki Das Equity Strategist MLI (UK) Lauma Kalns-Tim
13、ans Equity Strategist MLI (UK) lauma.kalns- Martyn Briggs Equity Strategist MLI (UK) Timestamp: 11 November 2019 12:30AM EST 2 Thematic Investing | 11 November 2019 Contents New paradigms of the 2020s 3 Did you know in the next decade 4 The next decade: unlike any before it 5 10 themes for the next
14、10 years 7 1. Peak Globalization: the world is not flat 8 2. Recession: late cycle, bond bubble, inflation 12 3. Quantitative Failure: post QE decade 16 4. Demographics: the new consumer 20 5. Climate Change: make earth green again 27 6. Splinternet: the race for technological supremacy and sovereig
15、n internets 31 7. Moral Capitalism: stakeholders take over from shareholders 37 8. Robots and Automation: rise of the AI machines 42 9. Smart Everything: ubiquitous connectivity 6G may be needed12 By 2029, AI could be as intelligent as humans13 By 2030, by 2030, global temperatures rise could breach
16、 the 1.5C target, as humans potentially exhaust the remaining carbon budget 14 By 2030, the number of ICE/diesel cars on the road could plateau15 By 2030, climate change could push more than 100 million people in developing countries below the poverty line16 By 2030, 80% of the middle class will be living outside the EU and US17 Source: 1UN, 2WEF 2019, 3Ovum, 4
