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1、,Thinking about Growth Technieken van Strategische Analyse Prof. Wouter De Ploey,I.Why grow II.The evolution of growth portfolios III.What great growers do,Profitable growth drives principal business objectives,Organisational vitality,Competitive sustainability,Shareholder value,Job creation,Value-c
2、reating revenue growth drives principal business objectives. Growth is not an end in itself.,Growth is pure oxygen. It creates a vital, enthusiastic corporation where people see genuine opportunity. They take bigger chances. They work harder and smarter. In that way growth is more than our single mo
3、st important financial driver, its an essential part of our corporate culture. Its why so many talented leaders want to work for PepsiCo rather than lots of other fine corporations. Wayne Calloway, former PepsiCo CEO,Growth drives organisational vitality,I.Why grow II.The evolution of growth portfol
4、ios III.What great growers do,Three key concepts,Balancing growth across 3 Horizons,Building businesses through a staircase of initiatives,A company as a portfolio of staircases,Concurrent management across 3 Horizons,Time frame (years),Profit,Horizon 3,Create viable options,Horizon 2,Build emerging
5、 businesses,Horizon 1,Extend and defend core businesses,3 Horizons of growth,Horizon 1 Extend and defend core businesses,Horizon 2 Build emerging businesses,Horizon 3 Create viable options,Types of businesses,Core businesses underpinning current profitability,New businesses and extensions of existin
6、g businesses fuelling revenue growth,Options to build future businesses,Management imperative,Unlock incremental growth, then manage for value as the business declines,Exercise options, assemble required capabilities, and drive business-building initiatives,Source options (ideas, relationships, asse
7、ts) for future growth and test viability of business concepts,Primary focus,Bottom-line performance and profitability,Top-line growth and capital efficiency,Future potential and robustness across multiple scenarios,Balanced growth at Coca-Cola Amatil,Time frame,Australasia 1965 Australia (69) 1988 N
8、ew Zealand (55) Western Europe 1982 Austria (42) 1995 Switzerland (35),Profit,Year of entry (consumption of Coca-Cola Amatil products in litres per capita),Horizon 3 Create viable options,Horizon 2 Build emerging businesses,Eastern Europe 1991 Hungary (30) 1991 Czech Republic (14) 1992 Slovakia (11)
9、 1994 Slovenia (25) 1995 Poland (8) 1995 Romania (15) 1995 Croatia (14) Southeast Asia 1991 Indonesia (2) 1997 Philippines (15),Former Soviet republics 1994 Belarus (2) 1994 Ukraine (1) China/India Option with Robert Kuok? Option with San Miguel Other (e.g., further franchises, smart cards, new prod
10、ucts),Horizon 1 Extend and defend core businesses,Financial characteristics Horizons 2 and 3: Coca-Cola Amatil example (Dec 96),Forecast cash contribution 1996 1996 A$ Millions,192,71,-12,Forecast cash contribution 2015 1996 A$ Millions,334,727,228,Capex,Low,High,Medium,Real growth in pre-capex cash
11、 flow 19962015,55%,227%,911%,Estimated market value,30%,50%,20%,Time frame,Profit,Horizon 3 Former Soviet republics China/Asia Other (e.g., further franchises, smart cards, new products),Horizon 2 Eastern Europe Indonesia,Horizon 1 Australasia Western Europe,Challenge of simultaneously managing 3 Ho
12、rizons,Profit,ROIC,Revenue,NPV,Option value,Business maintainers,Business builders,Champions and visionaries,Fully assembled capability platform,Capabilities being acquired or developed,Capability requirements may be unclear,Metrics,People,Capabilities,Horizon 1 Extend and defend core businesses,Hor
13、izon 2 Build emerging businesses,Horizon 3 Create viable options,Profit,Time frame,Unsustainable patterns,Weak,Strong,Strong, but under attack,Running out of steam,Ideas but not building businesses,Failing to seed for the future,Losing the right to grow,Lots of exciting options but nobody building a
14、 business,Building next generation of businesses, but not securing long-term future,Overfocused on core business, restricting future prospects,Excessive focus on growth at expense of core business,Core business under serious threat with no emerging new businesses,Under siege,*,*,*,*,*,*,*,*,*,*,*,*,
15、*,*,*,*,*,*,Three key concepts,Balancing growth across 3 Horizons,Building businesses through a staircase of initiatives,A company as a portfolio of staircases,Growth staircase dynamics,next step,Capability platform,Business-specific competences, growth-enabling competences, privileged assets, speci
16、al relationships,New,capabilities,Required future,capabilities,Existing,capabilities,Existing,capabilities,capabilities,New,New,capabilities,Required future,capabilities,Required future,capabilities,Required future,capabilities,Aspiration,Coca-Cola Amatils European staircase,Capabilities development,Strong brands,I have a vi
