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1、 Please refer to page 46 for important disclosures and analyst certification, or on our website 10 December 2019 Asia EQUITIES Global commercial vessel shipbuilding Source: Clarksons, Company data, Macquarie Research, December 2019 Global newbuild demand by product, 2019/20 vs 2017-18 average Source
2、: Clarksons, Company data, Macquarie Research, December 2019 Inside Where we stand in the cycle 2020 outlook 2 Energy products outshine in slowly recovering market 4 Industry consolidation 11 Korea Shipbuilding price as of close on 9 December 2019 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% KSOESHID
3、SMECSGYZJImabari- JMU Mitsui E other products to rebound with tanker being strongest, albeit lower than 2017-18 average Newbuild: steady recovery ahead Newbuild activities are broadly in line with our previous expectations. The only exception is bulker, where we see slow newbuild activities, followi
4、ng ongoing uncertainties around US-China trade. We are lowering our newbuild demand forecast for tankers in 2020, reflecting slow economic activities in emerging markets such as China and India, but the recovery trend should continue. Fig 9 Newbuild activities by vessel type 10M19 2019E 2020E Change
5、s (k CGT) Old New Old New 2019E 2020E Tanker 3,763 4,000 4,000 7,000 6,000 0.0% -14.3% Bulker 3,515 5,000 4,200 5,400 5,400 -16.0% 0.0% Container ship 2,675 4,000 4,000 5,000 5,000 0.0% 0.0% LNG carrier 3,156 5,200 5,200 5,200 5,200 0.0% 0.0% LPG carrier 718 800 850 800 800 6.3% 0.0% Source: Company
6、 data, Macquarie Research, November 2019 Fig 10 Global commercial vessel shipbuilding demand Fig 11 Clarkson newbuild index Source: Clarksons, Macquarie Research, December 2019 Source: Clarksons, Macquarie Research, December 2019 Fig 12 Backlog-to-fleet by vessel type Fig 13 15+ years fleet ratio by
7、 vessel type Source: Clarksons, Macquarie Research, December 2019 Source: Clarksons, Macquarie Research, December 2019 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E (US$ bn) 190 200 210 220 230 240 250 120 125 130 135 140 145 20112012201320142015201620
8、1720182019 (index)(index) Clarksons NB IndexNB Index (Won term, RHS) 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% LNG carrierConatiner shipLPG carrierTankerBulker (backlog-to- fleet) Current backlog-to-fleetAverage backlog-to-fleet (excluding GFC) 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% LPG carrierLNG carrierBulkerTankerContainer ship (%
9、of total fleet) 15year+ fleet ratio Looking back at 2019demolition activities have been slower than we previously anticipated on strong timecharter (especially in tanker) Heading into 2020LNG carrier remains the brightest spot with mega projects in Qatar and Mozambique in addition to US Other produc
10、ts should rebound YoY with tanker being strongest, supported by ton-mile effect and IMO regulations Macquarie Research Asia shipbuilding 10 December 2019 5 Demolition: rising fuel cost to accelerate scrapping of aged vessels Demolition activities have been slower than we previously anticipated due t
11、o supportive timecharter rates, except for container ships. IMO Sulphur cap-led retrofitting activities led to tightening supply-demand in most vessel types, especially tankers, leading to muted demolition activities. We expect this trend to reverse in 2020, once rising fuel cost on using LSFO hurts
12、 economics of aged vessels. Fig 14 Demolition activities by vessel type 10M19 2019E 2020E Changes Old New Old New 2019E 2020E Tanker (mn DWT) 3.0 10.1 4.1 3.6 6.9 -59% 92% Bulker (mn DWT) 6.0 9.7 8.0 7.2 8.0 -18% 11% Container (k TEU) 161.9 178.6 190.5 194.2 247.7 7% 28% LPG carrier (k cbm) 94.9 184
13、.8 138.6 113.8 138.6 -25% 22% LNG carrier (k cbm) 255.4 524.1 288.2 306.5 230.6 -45% -25% Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, November 2019 Tanker: Positive on both crude carriers and product carriers (refined oil products) As seen in 2016-2017, US crude exports can drive longer shipping dista
14、nce in the global seaborne crude trade and are supportive of newbuild demand going forward. US crude exports should grow from sub-3m bpd today to up to 8m bpd with increased export terminal capacity by end-2020 (Global oil Corpus Christi tested as a crude export hub, 7 June 2019). This growth should
15、 require nearly 100 x VLCCs (assuming they take market share from Middle East exports in a flattish market), or 30,000k DWT. Crude carrier newbuild deliveries are peaking in 2019 with 83x VLCC equivalents (2 Suezmax = 1 VLCC), 66x VLCCs and 35x Suezmax. Growing US crude exports in the next two years
16、 should provide 50 units annualized of VLCC newbuilds under a zero tonnage growth assumption, given the current outstanding crude carrier fleet is 1,062x VLCC equivalent. The US is expected to drive close to 10% of demand growth over the next two years, or 5% pa In addition; we expect 1% YoY global seaborne crude oil trade growth (tonnage) this year, followed by long-term growth of 2% CAGR. We are keeping our bullish view on p
