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1、Travel and Tourism,F. X. Murray Overview of the Travel and Tourism Industry, its importance to the global economy and the significance of civil aviation to that industry.,Travel & Tourism Data1999 and 2010,High Lights Global Data U. S. Data,Travel & Tourism Data and Supporting Reports for the NASA A
2、eronautics Study Prepared by SAIC,Critique & Technical Discussion of T & T Data,1993 Data Criticisms Revisions Recent Data System Cautions,Comparing 1994 & 1999,No adequate Documentation or Definitions for 1994 Data Terms not Comparable Estimating Techniques Different,World Travel & Tourism Council
3、First Estimate of T & T Industry Economic Data-1993 Forecasts for 1994 and 2001 Immediate Objectives Support “Free Trade in the Air” Emphasis on Air transport Show significance of the T & T Industry,T & T DATA HISTORY,Criticisms of T & T Data,Industry Generated Data Lacked Documentation & Methodolog
4、y Not Comparable with Existing Economic Databases Viewed by Others as Self-serving,Recommendations of Professionals,Rigorous Methodology Definitions and Documentation Links to Existing Official Economic Data Bases Credible Data Collection Entities,Resulting Data System,Most other OECD Countries Now
5、Provide Compatible Data UN Department of Economic & Social Affairs Collects Data from Most Countries Uses Methodology & Definitions Compatible with OECD Countries,Data for the U. S.,1995 Whitehouse Conference BEA to Develop Data System Travel & Tourism Satellite Account Completed 1998 Methodology an
6、d Definitions Rigorously Documented Integrated into the U. S. Input and Output Accounts I-O Factors among Industry Groups Developed,United Nations Data Collection UN Department of Economic & Social Affairs (Information Office) and UN TourismOrganization Now Collecting Data from Most Countries Uses M
7、ethodology & Definitions Compatible with OECD Countries,Limitations of T & T SA,U. S. Data Based on 1992 Business Census Assumption-1992 relationships (Input-Output) hold until next Census I-O Factors revised after 1998 Business Census (Revisions Due Late 1999/Early 2000),World Travel & Tourism Coun
8、cil,1999 Forecast Of T & T Economic Impact Derived from 1998 Data Projection for 2010 is Included Global and Regional Forecasts for 1999 and Projections for 2010 General Agreement on Methodology & Terms,Limitations on Newly Released Forecasts & Projections,All OECD Countries Now Report No Data from
9、Many Smaller Countries Regional Samples Used for Some (Latin America, Eastern Europe) E.g., Argentina and Brazil Used to Estimate Latin America Assumed Growth Rates to 2010,Travel & TourismHigh Lights for 1999,Travel & Tourism Impact Direct and Indirect upon the Global Economy 11% of GDP 200 Million
10、 Jobs 8% of Total Employment 5.5 Million New Jobs per year until 2010,U. S. Highlights,Data used in WTTC Data System Importance of US in T & T Industry Employment Capital Investment Government Spending Federal Agencies State & Local,Key Points from Global Projection For 2010 For Travel & Tourism,Rea
11、l Growth 3.3% per year Through 2010 Economy GDP will be 11% of Global GDP Employment will be 9% Tax Revenues at 11.7% of Total,T & T Forecast for 2010 Investment,Government Expenditures to Support T & T Increase at a higher rate than in T & T Global Capital Investment $733 B in 1999 and projected to
12、 be $1.5 Trillion by 2010. T & T Capital Investment Grows Faster than Global Investment,United States Data for T & T,Up to 25% of All Direct T & T Expenditures for Airfares Largest Single Item T & T GDP $1,067 Billion in 1999 Japan next highest at $389 B. T & T GDP Projected at $1.8 Trillion by 2010
13、,U. S. Employment & Government Spending,T & T Economy accounts for 17.5 Million U.S. jobs in 1999 (13.2%) 20.2 Million U.S. Jobs Expected in 2010 (13.5%) Governments spent $52.2 Billion for T & T 1999 By 2010 Projected to reach $85 Billion,Analytical Tools: Direct Economic Factors,Economic Factors f
14、or US Transportation Direct Impact per $ of Air Transport $ 1.00 Primary Ind. (mfg) = .14 Other Transport = .15 Services, Misc. = .26 Value Added = .45 Primary Industries include Agri., mining, constr., Services include finance, insurance, communications, Utilities & Govt.,Direct & Indirect Economic
15、 Factors,Factors for US Air Transportation Direct & Indirect Requirements: Per $ of Air Transportation Service Primary Ind. (mfg) = .35 Transportation = 1.17 Services = .47 Total = 1.99 The Direct Impact is .99 or approx. $1 to $1: Indirect to Direct,Travel & Tourism Factors,Direct Products & Servic
16、es Required per $1 expended for Travel & Tourism in the U. S. Air fares .25 Lodging .16 Meals, etc .14 Shopping .12 All Other .34 Total $1.00,Cautionary Notes,Definitions for T & T Economic Measures are cumbersome and difficult to master, e.g. 1999 the “T & T Industry GDP” is $1,328 Billion, BUT “T & T Economy GDP” is $3,549, AND “T & T Demand” is $4,475 Billion,Travel & Tourism Industry GDP (Supply),Includes Direct Val
