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1、第7章 宏观经济政策,1998年6月16日,财政部长项怀诚先生在人们日报上发表署名文章,提出“有必要即时追踪和分析经济发展态势,适当采取刺激有效需求管理的政策措施,适度启动经济,改变经济增长乏力的状况,保持国民经济持续,快速、健康发展”。 虽然这一文章是在该报“理论版”上发表的,但引起当时国内外财经界的极大关注,被认为是中国财政政策从紧缩转为扩张的信号。果然,一个多月后召开全国财政工作会议,更明确地强调要实施更加积极的财政措施,加大对基础设施的投入力度,以有效启动经济。,凯恩斯认为:资本主义经济处于小于充分就业的常态,即:“有效需求不足”。 Keynes consider that capit
2、alistic economy always is in the state in which employment rate less than its national rate.That is to say effective demand is scarce. 对策 需求管理 (Countermeasure-Demand Management),2.供给冲击(Supply Impact),AS,AD,Y,P1,O,P,e0,e1,Y,Y1,-,P0,7.2用经济政策抵消冲击(Using economic policy to counteract impact),1.用经济政策抵消需求冲
3、击,AS,AD0,AD1,Y,P0,O,P,e,e0,e1,Y,Y1,-,政策,冲击,7.2用经济政策抵消冲击(Using economic policy to counteract impact),1.用经济政策抵消供给冲击,AS,AD1,AD0,Y,P1,O,P,e0,e2,e1,Y,Y1,-,P0,冲击,政策,7.3 宏观经济政策的理论分析 (Theoretical analysis of Macroeconomic Policy),一、财政政策和货币政策的影响 (Influence of monetary and fiscal policy) 1、问题的提出:,IS,LM,Y0,Yf,
4、Yf,E,2、调节方法: 把E点移到 Yf 线上去: 方法一:变动LM (Approach 1st: shift of LM) 方法二:变动IS (Approach 2nd: shift of IS) 方法三:同时变动IS、LM (Approach 3rd: shift of IS and LM together),(1)方法一:货币政策 (Approach 1st: Monetary Policy),LM,返回,(2)方法二:财政政策 (Approach 2nd: Fiscal Policy),IS,LM,Y0,E,Yf,Y,O,r,返回,(3)方法三:两种政策相结合 (Approach 3
5、rd: Monetary and Fiscal Policy),返回,财政政策是政府变动税收和支出以便影响总需求进而影响就业和国民收入。 货币政策是政府货币当局即中央银行通过银行体系变动货币供给量来调节总需求。 可见,无论是财政政策还是货币政策,都是通过影响利率或投资进而影响总需求,使就业和国民收入得到调节。,Fiscal Policy is that government firstly affect aggregate demand through changing the amount of tax or expenditure ,and then affect employment a
6、nd national income. Monetary Policy is that monetary bureau (central bank) adjust aggregate demand through changing the system of banks.,二、财政政策与货币政策的效果:见教材P 7.4,1、财政政策的效果和“挤出效应” 挤出效应:当政府支出增加或税收减少时,货币需求会增加,在货币供给既定的情况下,利率会上升,私人部门(厂商)的投资会受到抑制,产生政府支出挤出私人投资的现象,即所谓“挤出效应”。,Effect of Fiscal and Monetary Pol
7、icy,1. Effect of fiscal policy and “the Crowding-out effect) Crowding-out effect: while an increase in government expenditure or an decrease in tax stimulates the demand for currency ,it also causes the interest rate to rise,and thereby reduce the investment .The reduction in aggregate demand that r
8、esults when a fiscal expansion raises the interest rate is called “the Crowding-out effect”.,挤出效应的大小关系到财政政策效果的大小(Effect of crowding-out effect influence effect of fiscal policy) LM不变时, IS平 挤出多 效果差 IS陡 挤出少 效果好 IS不变时, LM平 挤出少 效果好 LM陡 挤出多 效果差,2、货币政策效果分析 (Analysis of monetary policys effect),(1)LM不变时, I
9、S平 效果好 IS陡 效果差 (2)IS不变时, LM平 效果差 LM陡 效果好,7.4 宏观经济政策实践与利弊 (Practice & pros and cons of macroeconomic policy),一、宏观经济政策目标 (Goal of macroeconomic policy) 1、目标的形成: (Composite of goal) 充分就业(Full employment) 价格稳定(Stable price level) 经济增长(Economy growth) 国际收支平衡(Balanceable international exchange),2、四个目标间的关系
10、 既统一又矛盾(Relationship among four subsidiary goals-unified and contradictory) (1)充分就业与物价稳定 (Full employment & Stable price level) (2)充分就业与经济增长 (Full employment & Economy Growth) (3)充分就业与国际收支平衡 (Full employment & Balanceable international exchange),二、财政政策, 为促进就业水平提高,减轻经济波动,防止通货膨胀,实现稳定增长而对政府支出、税收和借债水平所进
11、行的选择,或对政府收入和支出水平所做出的决策。,1、财政政策的构成(Constitute of fiscal policy),(1)财政收入 税收 公债 (Taxes) (Government Bond),(2)财政支出 (Fiscal expenditure),根据课税对象,可分为: 财产税 (Property tax) 所得税 (Income tax) 流转税 (Circulate tax),根据收入中被扣除的比例,可分为: 累进税 (Progressive tax) 累退税 (Regressive tax) 比例税 (Proportional tax),返回,公债 是政府运用信用形式筹集
12、财政资金的特殊形式,包括中央政府的债券和地方政府的债券。 短期债 中期债 长期债,返回,Government Bond,-is a special approach of government raising money ,it conclude two kinds of bond ,one is issued by central government,the other is issued by local government. short-term bond middle-term bond long-term bond,a. 军需品 政府购买(g) b. 机关的用品 c. 公务员薪金
13、 d. 公共工程开支 转移支付(tr) 举例说明,2、自动稳定器与积极的财政政策,(1)自动稳定器:Automatic Stabilizers 亦称内在稳定器,是指经济系统本身存在的一种会减少各种干扰对国民收入冲击的机制,能够在经济繁荣时期自动抑制膨胀,在经济衰退时期自动减轻萧条,毋须政府采取任何行动。,Automatic Stabilizers & Active finance policy.,(1).Automatic Stabilizers(Inherent Stabilizers): are changes in fiscal policy that stimulate demand
14、when the economy goes into a recession without policymakers having to take any deliberate action.,内在稳定器主要通过以下三项制度得以发挥: A:税收的自动变化 (Automatic changes of taxes) B:政府的转移支付 (Governments transfer payment) C:美国政府维持农产品价格的政策 (Policy of maintaining farm products price level ruled by American government),(2)积极
15、的财政政策 意指政府密切注视经济的变动趋势,预测未来的经济发展,在税收和政府开支方面采取有效的对策,以实现一定的宏观调控的政策目的。 (即:政府主动的、有意识的政策) 经济特写:“踩油门”与“踩刹车” 扩张与紧缩的矛盾,(2).Active finance policy,- means that government has an eye on the fluctuate trend of economy ,predict the factors of economic development,take effective measures in the aspects of taxes and government purchases